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Modeling and Analysis of Post-Conflict Reconstruction

Modeling and Analysis of Post-Conflict Reconstruction. Lt Damon B. Richardson Dr Richard F. Deckro Maj Victor D. Wiley Air Force Institute of Technology. Disclaimer

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Modeling and Analysis of Post-Conflict Reconstruction

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  1. Modeling and Analysis ofPost-Conflict Reconstruction Lt Damon B. Richardson Dr Richard F. Deckro Maj Victor D. Wiley Air Force Institute of Technology Disclaimer The views expressed in this briefing are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or the United States Government.

  2. Research Overview • Propose a general model for simulating the establishment of security in a post-conflict reconstruction • Demonstrate the application of the proposed general model on a notional scenario

  3. Post-Conflict Reconstruction • Post-conflict reconstruction is defined as • Rebuilding the socioeconomic framework of society • Reconstructing the enabling conditions for a functioning peacetime society • More than just the rebuilding of physical infrastructure • Includes promoting reconciliation and establishing • Governance • Rule of law • Security • Literature on post-conflict reconstruction spans the literature on nation-building, peacekeeping, peace enforcement, and stability operations Harme and Sullivan, 2002:89

  4. Systems Dynamics • Systems dynamics models are continuous event simulations • It models systems as webs of key factor levels and dynamic rates of change driven by non-linear interconnected relations, information feedback loops, and time delays • In the past systems dynamics has been applied to a number of different types of systems to analyze how different types of systems develop over time • Examples include • Industrial setting • Urban development • World economic development • STRATMAS • And others

  5. Model Overview Labor Market Law Enforcement Insurgent and Coalition Military Activities Indigenous Security Institutions Critical Infrastructure Public Opinion

  6. Components of a Systems Dynamics Model • Level Value • Rate Value • Function • State Change • Parametric Input • Exogenous Level Value Forrester 1961

  7. General Post-ConflictReconstruction Model Indigenous SF Casualty Rate Per Capita GDP Growth Rate Indigenous Security forces # of Useful Tips on Insurgent Activity Indigenous SF Graduation Rate Per Capita GDP Troops Quelling Insurgents Indigenous SF in Training Employment Rate Gov’t Employee Rate of Change Privately Employed People Indigenous SF Recruit Rate Gov’t Employees Crime Rate Insurgent Captured or Killed Rate Insurgent Rate of Change Troops Securing Borders Unemployed Persons Police Officer Training Rate Police Officer Recruitment Rate Police In Training Police Officers Insurgents Criminal Recruitment Rate International Insurgent Rate of Change Criminals Coalition Troops In Country Criminal Apprehension Rate Power/Water/Food Infrastructure Development Rate Crime Rate Coalition Troop Rate of Change Coalition Troop Casualty Rate Amount of Food/Fuel/Water/Electricity Delivered Each Day Insurgent Infrastructure Attacks Civilian Casualties Troops/MPs In Police Roles # of Useful Tips on Insurgent Activity Rate of Change of Public Opinion Note: Some levels have been aggregated on this slide People Neutral to or Satisfied With the Occupation Insurgent Rate of Change People Dissatisfied With the Occupation

  8. Insurgent and CoalitionMilitary Activities Sub-Model • Level Value • Rate Value • Function • State Change • Parametric Input • Exogenous Level Value Number of People Dissatisfied with the Occupation Border Patrol Personnel Insurgent Rate of Change (Eq 3.26) International Insurgent Rate of Change (Eq 3.27) Detainee Release Rate (Eq. 3.29) Detained Insurgents Insurgents Unemployed persons Indigenous Police Officers Insurgent Apprehension Rate (Eq 3.28) Indigenous Military Personnel Coalition Troops fighting insurgents (Eq 3.25) Insurgent Attacks (Eq. 3.30) Tips on Insurgents (Eq. 3.40) Civil Defense Personnel Coalition Troops Patrolling Border (Eq 3.24) Coalition Troops Policing (Eq 3.21) Insurgent Infrastructure Attacks (Eq. 3.31) Coalition Troops Criminal Apprehension Rate (Eq 3.18) Coalition Troop Casualty Rate (Eq 3.23) Coalition Troops in Country Rate of Change (Eq 3.22)

  9. Insurgent and CoalitionMilitary Activities Sub-Model • Level Value • Rate Value • Function • State Change • Parametric Input • Exogenous Level Value Number of People Dissatisfied with the Occupation Border Patrol Personnel Insurgent Rate of Change (Eq 3.26) International Insurgent Rate of Change (Eq 3.27) Detainee Release Rate (Eq. 3.29) Detained Insurgents Insurgents Unemployed persons Indigenous Police Officers Insurgent Apprehension Rate (Eq 3.28) Indigenous Military Personnel Coalition Troops fighting insurgents (Eq 3.25) Insurgent Attacks (Eq. 3.30) Tips on Insurgents (Eq. 3.40) Civil Defense Personnel Coalition Troops Patrolling Border (Eq 3.24) Coalition Troops Policing (Eq 3.21) Insurgent Infrastructure Attacks (Eq. 3.31) Coalition Troops Criminal Apprehension Rate (Eq 3.18) Coalition Troop Casualty Rate (Eq 3.23) Coalition Troops in Country Rate of Change (Eq 3.22)

  10. Insurgent and CoalitionMilitary Activities Sub-Model • Level Value • Rate Value • Function • State Change • Parametric Input • Exogenous Level Value Number of People Dissatisfied with the Occupation Border Patrol Personnel Insurgent Rate of Change (Eq 3.26) International Insurgent Rate of Change (Eq 3.27) Detainee Release Rate (Eq. 3.29) Detained Insurgents Insurgents Unemployed persons Indigenous Police Officers Insurgent Apprehension Rate (Eq 3.28) Indigenous Military Personnel Coalition Troops fighting insurgents (Eq 3.25) Insurgent Attacks (Eq. 3.30) Tips on Insurgents (Eq. 3.40) Civil Defense Personnel Coalition Troops Patrolling Border (Eq 3.24) Coalition Troops Policing (Eq 3.21) Insurgent Infrastructure Attacks (Eq. 3.31) Coalition Troops Criminal Apprehension Rate (Eq 3.18) Coalition Troop Casualty Rate (Eq 3.23) Coalition Troops in Country Rate of Change (Eq 3.22)

  11. Insurgent and CoalitionMilitary Activities Sub-Model • Level Value • Rate Value • Function • State Change • Parametric Input • Exogenous Level Value Number of People Dissatisfied with the Occupation Border Patrol Personnel Insurgent Rate of Change (Eq 3.26) International Insurgent Rate of Change (Eq 3.27) Detainee Release Rate (Eq. 3.29) Detained Insurgents Insurgents Unemployed persons Indigenous Police Officers Insurgent Apprehension Rate (Eq 3.28) Indigenous Military Personnel Coalition Troops fighting insurgents (Eq 3.25) Insurgent Attacks (Eq. 3.30) Tips on Insurgents (Eq. 3.40) Civil Defense Personnel Coalition Troops Patrolling Border (Eq 3.24) Coalition Troops Policing (Eq 3.21) Insurgent Infrastructure Attacks (Eq. 3.31) Coalition Troops Criminal Apprehension Rate (Eq 3.18) Coalition Troop Casualty Rate (Eq 3.23) Coalition Troops in Country Rate of Change (Eq 3.22)

  12. Insurgent and CoalitionMilitary Activities Sub-Model • Level Value • Rate Value • Function • State Change • Parametric Input • Exogenous Level Value Number of People Dissatisfied with the Occupation Border Patrol Personnel Insurgent Rate of Change (Eq 3.26) International Insurgent Rate of Change (Eq 3.27) Detainee Release Rate (Eq. 3.29) Detained Insurgents Insurgents Unemployed persons Indigenous Police Officers Insurgent Apprehension Rate (Eq 3.28) Indigenous Military Personnel Coalition Troops fighting insurgents (Eq 3.25) Insurgent Attacks (Eq. 3.30) Tips on Insurgents (Eq. 3.40) Civil Defense Personnel Coalition Troops Patrolling Border (Eq 3.24) Coalition Troops Policing (Eq 3.21) Insurgent Infrastructure Attacks (Eq. 3.31) Coalition Troops Criminal Apprehension Rate (Eq 3.18) Coalition Troop Casualty Rate (Eq 3.23) Coalition Troops in Country Rate of Change (Eq 3.22)

  13. Insurgent and CoalitionMilitary Activities Sub-Model • Level Value • Rate Value • Function • State Change • Parametric Input • Exogenous Level Value Number of People Dissatisfied with the Occupation Border Patrol Personnel Insurgent Rate of Change (Eq 3.26) International Insurgent Rate of Change (Eq 3.27) Detainee Release Rate (Eq. 3.29) Detained Insurgents Insurgents Unemployed persons Indigenous Police Officers Insurgent Apprehension Rate (Eq 3.28) Indigenous Military Personnel Coalition Troops fighting insurgents (Eq 3.25) Insurgent Attacks (Eq. 3.30) Tips on Insurgents (Eq. 3.40) Civil Defense Personnel Coalition Troops Patrolling Border (Eq 3.24) Coalition Troops Policing (Eq 3.21) Insurgent Infrastructure Attacks (Eq. 3.31) Coalition Troops Criminal Apprehension Rate (Eq 3.18) Coalition Troop Casualty Rate (Eq 3.23) Coalition Troops in Country Rate of Change (Eq 3.22)

  14. Insurgent and CoalitionMilitary Activities Sub-Model • Level Value • Rate Value • Function • State Change • Parametric Input • Exogenous Level Value Number of People Dissatisfied with the Occupation Border Patrol Personnel Insurgent Rate of Change (Eq 3.26) International Insurgent Rate of Change (Eq 3.27) Detainee Release Rate (Eq. 3.29) Detained Insurgents Insurgents Unemployed persons Indigenous Police Officers Insurgent Apprehension Rate (Eq 3.28) Indigenous Military Personnel Coalition Troops fighting insurgents (Eq 3.25) Insurgent Attacks (Eq. 3.30) Tips on Insurgents (Eq. 3.40) Civil Defense Personnel Coalition Troops Patrolling Border (Eq 3.24) Coalition Troops Policing (Eq 3.21) Insurgent Infrastructure Attacks (Eq. 3.31) Coalition Troops Criminal Apprehension Rate (Eq 3.18) Coalition Troop Casualty Rate (Eq 3.23) Coalition Troops in Country Rate of Change (Eq 3.22)

  15. Insurgent and CoalitionMilitary Activities Sub-Model • Level Value • Rate Value • Function • State Change • Parametric Input • Exogenous Level Value Number of People Dissatisfied with the Occupation Border Patrol Personnel Insurgent Rate of Change (Eq 3.26) International Insurgent Rate of Change (Eq 3.27) Detainee Release Rate (Eq. 3.29) Detained Insurgents Insurgents Unemployed persons Indigenous Police Officers Insurgent Apprehension Rate (Eq 3.28) Indigenous Military Personnel Coalition Troops fighting insurgents (Eq 3.25) Insurgent Attacks (Eq. 3.30) Tips on Insurgents (Eq. 3.40) Civil Defense Personnel Coalition Troops Patrolling Border (Eq 3.24) Coalition Troops Policing (Eq 3.21) Insurgent Infrastructure Attacks (Eq. 3.31) Coalition Troops Criminal Apprehension Rate (Eq 3.18) Coalition Troop Casualty Rate (Eq 3.23) Coalition Troops in Country Rate of Change (Eq 3.22)

  16. Insurgent and CoalitionMilitary Activities Sub-Model • Level Value • Rate Value • Function • State Change • Parametric Input • Exogenous Level Value Number of People Dissatisfied with the Occupation Border Patrol Personnel Insurgent Rate of Change (Eq 3.26) International Insurgent Rate of Change (Eq 3.27) Detainee Release Rate (Eq. 3.29) Detained Insurgents Insurgents Unemployed persons Indigenous Police Officers Insurgent Apprehension Rate (Eq 3.28) Indigenous Military Personnel Coalition Troops fighting insurgents (Eq 3.25) Insurgent Attacks (Eq. 3.30) Tips on Insurgents (Eq. 3.40) Civil Defense Personnel Coalition Troops Patrolling Border (Eq 3.24) Coalition Troops Policing (Eq 3.21) Insurgent Infrastructure Attacks (Eq. 3.31) Coalition Troops Criminal Apprehension Rate (Eq 3.18) Coalition Troop Casualty Rate (Eq 3.23) Coalition Troops in Country Rate of Change (Eq 3.22)

  17. Insurgent and CoalitionMilitary Activities Sub-Model • Level Value • Rate Value • Function • State Change • Parametric Input • Exogenous Level Value Number of People Dissatisfied with the Occupation Border Patrol Personnel Insurgent Rate of Change (Eq 3.26) International Insurgent Rate of Change (Eq 3.27) Detainee Release Rate (Eq. 3.29) Detained Insurgents Insurgents Unemployed persons Indigenous Police Officers Insurgent Killed or Detained Rate (Eq 3.28) Indigenous Military Personnel Coalition Troops fighting insurgents (Eq 3.25) Insurgent Attacks (Eq. 3.30) Tips on Insurgents (Eq. 3.40) Civil Defense Personnel Coalition Troops Patrolling Border (Eq 3.24) Coalition Troops Policing (Eq 3.21) Insurgent Infrastructure Attacks (Eq. 3.31) Coalition Troops Criminal Apprehension Rate (Eq 3.18) Coalition Troops in Country Rate of Change (Eq 3.22) Coalition Troop Casualty Rate (Eq 3.23)

  18. General Post-ConflictReconstruction Model Indigenous SF Casualty Rate Per Capita GDP Growth Rate Indigenous Security forces # of Useful Tips on Insurgent Activity Indigenous SF Graduation Rate Per Capita GDP Troops Quelling Insurgents Indigenous SF in Training Employment Rate Gov’t Employee Rate of Change Privately Employed People Indigenous SF Recruit Rate Gov’t Employees Crime Rate Insurgent Captured or Killed Rate Insurgent Rate of Change Troops Securing Borders Unemployed Persons Police Officer Training Rate Police Officer Recruitment Rate Police In Training Police Officers Insurgents Criminal Recruitment Rate International Insurgent Rate of Change Criminals Coalition Troops In Country Criminal Apprehension Rate Power/Water/Food Infrastructure Development Rate Crime Rate Coalition Troop Rate of Change Coalition Troop Casualty Rate Amount of Food/Fuel/Water/Electricity Delivered Each Day Insurgent Infrastructure Attacks Civilian Casualties Troops/MPs In Police Roles # of Useful Tips on Insurgent Activity Rate of Change of Public Opinion Note: Some levels have been aggregated on this slide People Neutral to or Satisfied With the Occupation Insurgent Rate of Change People Dissatisfied With the Occupation

  19. Application to a Notional Scenario • Notional scenario based on Operation Iraqi Freedom • Day 0 is the day the Baathist regime collapsed • Scenario ends when security is effectively established • Security is established when the 30 day moving average for crime and insurgent related deaths falls below an annualized rate of 43 deaths per 100,000 • 43 deaths per 100,000 is the murder rate in Washington D.C.

  20. Notional ScenarioStarting Conditions • 200,000 Coalition Troops • 10,000 Iraqi Police Officers • 0 Iraqi Security Forces • 0 Barrels of Oil Produced Per day • 2000 MW of Electricity Distributed Per Day • 4,000,000 Liters of Water Distributed per Day • 50,000 Criminals • 10,000 Insurgents • 30% of the Population Dissatisfied with the Occupation

  21. Results From Open Source BaselineRun Of Notional Iraqi Scenario

  22. Screening ExperimentResults Histogram Sample Mean: 317 Sample Std Dev: 80 N = 192

  23. Significant Factors byMagnitude of Impact • In this notional scenario • Effort spent “winning hearts and minds” during hostilities and immediately on taking control can make it easier to establish security, saving money and lives • Critical Infrastructure development and economic growth are critical to establishing security

  24. Conclusions • A systems dynamics model of post-conflict reconstruction can help decision makers by: • Providing an environment where various policies can be explored without lost money or lives • Bounding how long an operation will likely take • Bounding how many resources a given operation will likely require to be successful • Identifying key leverage points to bring about a desired outcome

  25. Questions Contact Information: Lt Damon Richardson Damon.Richarson@Randolph.Af.Mil Dr Richard Deckro Richard.Deckro@AFIT.edu Maj Victor Wiley Victor.Wiley@AFIT.edu

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