Axel Friedrich Umweltbundesamt (UBA) Germany

1. WHAT IN THE WORLD? TRANSPORTATION ENERGY AND GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION PLANNING OUTSIDE OF THE U.S. Europe Axel FriedrichUmweltbundesamt (UBA)Germany 16th annual UCLA Lake Arrowhead Symposium on the Transportation- Land Use-Environment Connection.

2. GHG emissions from transport in the EEA-31(all EEA members except Cyprus)between 1990 and 2002

3. Rise in Energy Consumption in Road Transport in old 15 EU Member States between 1995 and 2003

4. Modal Split Development in Berlin (Internal Traffic) Bicycle

5. Development Passenger Transport S-Bahn Berlin M.ML 1 BB (NO)

6. Voluntary Agreement with ACEA, Jama and Kama • It exists an vountary agreement of the EU- commission and the EU council with ACEA to reach 140 gt/km in 2008 as a sales average of all sold vehicles in the EU. • For JAMA and KAMA the goal is 140 g/ km in 2009. • In 2012 the goal is 120/km if technical feasible

7. Assessment of the Directive’s effectiveness Reducing CO2 emissions (1) Source: ADAC

8. CO2 emissions of newly registered Vehicle in the EU

9. Net-costs and cost efficiency (benefit cost ratio) to society (excluding taxes, including fuel savings) for reaching 140g/km between 2002 and 2008(ACEA, JAMA, KAMA) Source:Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy (calculations based on IEEP, 2005) 2006

10. Assessment of Fuel consumption, Potential and Cost of Hybrid Concepts Source: Lang,FEV Motorentechnik 2004

11. Demonstration CarOverview on the Fuel Saving Measures gearbox with long transmission engine stop at idling gearshift indicator Light weight seats Latent- heat storage narrower low rolling resistance tires lower body smoth under flow smoth covers

12. Reduction Potential in the Simulationcombined Measures in the NEDC NEDC consumption CO reduction reduction 2 [l/100km] [g/km] [l/100km] [%] Basic car Golf 1.4l TSI 7.24 173.7 0.00 0.0 combinedmeasures c =0.28, fr =0.9%, m=1250kg w 5.58 133.8 1.66 22.9 2.0l-TDI-gear box, start-stop =0.9%, m=1250kg c =0.28, fr w 5.44 130.6 1.80 24.8 2.0l-TDI-gear box, GSI start-stop, c =0.28, fr =0.9%, m=1250kg w 32.9 4.85 116.5 2.38 2.0l-TDI-gear box, GSI warm Start-Stop

13. Taxes

14. 70 Denmark Sweden 60 w. Germany U.S from Passenger Transport (g/$) Italy . Carbon Emissions Canada France 50 U.K. Japan 40 U.S. Australia Canada Australia 30 Netherlands European Countries 20 Japan 10 0 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 Weighted Average Fuel Prices ('90 PPP US$) Correlation between Fuel Prices and Transport Fuel Intensity Source: Lee Schipper

15. 38 36 34 road fuel use (g/€) 32 30 28 26 24 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10 1.20 road fuel price in 2003 (€/litre)) Average Fuel Prices in 2003 vs. Transport Energy Intensity of old EU15 Member States(in grams of road transport fuel per € of GDP) Source: Transport and Environment Reporting Mechanism data, T&E analysis

17. Differentiation of Annual Circulation Tax for Private Cars in the United Kingdom

18. CO2 related Company Car Tax in UK The maximum charge will be on 35 percent of the car list price. Diesel cars will be subject to a 3% surcharge and this charge will also be limited to 35 percent

19. New Car Average CO2 Emissions in UK Source: Driver Vehicle Licensing Agency, UK

20. CO2 Abatement Cost per ton, diesel vehicle, European Driving Assumptions

21. HDV

22. Possible CO2 Reduction HDV BASE: EURO 3 / 2003 Combustion+SCR: - 3 bis - 4% Friction Reduction: - 3 bis –4% 2-step Turbo- Charging: - 2% Variable Valve Control: - 1 bis - 4% η > 44 % Starter/Generator: - 1% Side components: - 2% Sum: Diesel Propulsion Potential: - 12%

23. Mode Shift

24. Energy efficiency and CO emissions of public transport 2 compared to car transport 1 0,9 car 0,8 bus, light rail 0,7 rail 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 MegaJoule/pkm CO2/pkm Source: TREMOD Scope: Germany 2005 Energy efficiency per transport unit and mode with passenger transport

25. Energy efficiency and CO emissions of road freight 2 compared to rail and inland waterways 1 0,9 road 0,8 rail 0,7 inland shipping 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 MegaJoule/tkm CO2/tkm Scope: Germany 2005 Source: TREMOD Energy efficiency per transport unit and mode with Freight Transport

26. Modal Split Development in Berlin (Internal Traffic) Bicycle

27. Development Passenger Transport S-Bahn Berlin M.ML 1 BB (NO)

28. Implementation of the EU Bio Fuels Directive As in electricity generation, a framework is set by Community legislation: the bio fuels directive[1], which sets as reference values a 2% market share for bio fuels in 2005 and 5.75% share in 2010. The 2005 reference value was not be achieved. There is substantial variation in Member States’ efforts; if all Member States achieve the targets they have set, biofuels will attain a share of only 1.4%. [1]Directive 2003/30/EC of 8 May 2003 on the promotion of the use of biofuels or other renewable fuels for transport, O.J. L123, 17/05/2003 Source: COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION 2005 Biomass action plan

29. Bio Fuels

30. Implementation of the EU Biofuels Directive In accordance with the biofuels directive, the Commission will bring forward a report in 2006 on the directive’s implementation, with a view to a possible revision. It will address the issues of: ·     national targets for the market share of biofuels; ·     using biofuels obligations; requiring that, through a system of certificates, only biofuels whose cultivation complies with minimum sustainability standards will count towards the targets. Source: COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION 2005 Biomass action plan

31. axel.friedrich@uba.dewww.umweltbundesamt.de Address: 068440 Dessau POB 1406 Tel: +49 340 2103 2562