Impacts

1. Impacts

2. Overview • Discuss major “topic impacts” • Discuss how to prepare for and win impact debates • Impacts discussed will include • Leadership • Growth • Everything else

3. Impact #1: Leadership • Also called “hegemony” or “heg”, or sometimes “preponderance” • Like many impacts, is debated as both “heg good” and “heg bad” • Leadership is divided along two axes • Hard power: military and economic might • Soft power: cultural and ideological attractiveness • Impact modules exist for both “heg good/bad” and “soft power good/bad”

4. Leadership [cont’d] • Heg good thesis: U.S. influence serves an important balancing and stabilizing function, and a U.S. withdrawal would spur conflicts as states move rapidly to fill the power vacuum (Khalilzad ‘95) • Common impact scenarios include: • Great power wars (global nuclear war) • East Asian wars • European wars • South Asia wars • Mideast wars • Economic collapse • Terrorism • Proliferation—allied and adventurist • Democracy • Competitor states bad—Russia, China • Revisionist states bad—Iran, North Korea, Venezuela

5. Leadership [cont’d] • Heg bad thesis: U.S. intervention in the affairs of other states risks the U.S. getting drawn into wars, and increases resentment/blowback against the U.S. • Common “heg bad” scenarios include: • Terrorism • Proliferation • Economy (overstretch) • China containment bad/resentment • Russia containment bad/resentment • Arms racing/super weapons • Democracy (domestic and international) • Regional wars everywhere the other side says “heg is good”

6. Leadership [cont’d] • Soft power good thesis: Actions that increase the international standing of the U.S. are good/actions that decrease the international standing of the U.S. are bad • Common scenarios include: • Economy • Disease • Terrorism • Environment (general) • Warming • Proliferation (cooperation internals, esp. Iran)

7. Leadership [cont’d] • Soft power bad thesis: increasing the international reputation of the U.S. allows it to encourage other states to do bad things • Common impact scenarios include: • Missile defense deployments bad • Iran containment/attack bad • Terrorism/counterterrorism bad • Democracy promotion bad

8. Leadership [cont’d] • Keys to winning a heg debate: • Control short-term uniquenes—heg high/low now • Control long-term uniqueness—is heg sustainable? • Emphasize timeframe arguments (every impact will have the same magnitude) • Have MORE scenarios than your opponent • Read defense against your opponent’s impacts

9. Impact #2: Growth • Is continued economic growth good or bad? Conventional wisdom says “good”, but there are a lot of good cards either way • Debates tend to center on the relationship between economic expansion and • Frequency and intensity of conflict/war • Environmental destruction and preservation • Will most commonly be encountered as a disad (esp. politics) impact • Useful because can be used to turn everything

10. Growth [cont’d] • “Growth good” tends to assume that it is inevitable, hardwired into the human condition, and is capable of self-correction (solving the problems it produces via tech, ingenuity and wealth) • Typical impacts include: • War (parallels to WW2) • Space • Environment (wealth effect)

11. Growth [cont’d] • “Growth bad” tends to assume that economic expansion occurs within a finite resource/environmental systems that are incapable of supporting continued growth • Typical impacts include: • War (K-wave theory, upswing wars) • Environmental collapse, w/ various scenarios • Equity/ethics

12. Growth [cont’d] • THE key question—will human ingenuity be able to keep ahead of impending pollution and scarcity problems • Get to space • Should get to understand explanations for WW2—are used on both sides

13. Impact #3: Terrorism • Definition: terrorism is the use of violence against civilian targets to achieve political ends • By this standard, virtually all governments engage in terrorist acts • Quick aside—terror talk • Has become a defining feature of contemporary debate—many authors are obsessed with terrorism and its impact, esp. since 9/11

14. Terrorism [cont’d] • Terrorism bad impacts include • Extinction (Sid-Ahmed, Gordon, etc.) • Nuclear war (from great power escalation, Ayson)—includes questions of target retaliation • Economic collapse • Totalitarianism (turns “soft” case impacts) • Most impact scenarios assumes terrorists will use nuclear weapons • Can they get them? • Do they want them? • Would they use them? • Are we vulnerable to terrorist use?

15. Terrorism [cont’d] • “Terrorism Good” arguments assume that terror attacks do not escalate to major conflicts, and spur policy changes that are net-beneficial • Scenarios include: • Hegemony • China Bashing bad (terror discourse) • Russia (encourages cooperation) • Missile Defense • Iran Strikes Good • Defensive arguments include: [see Mueller 2011, 2012] • Terrorists don’t want nukes • Terrorists can’t get nukes • Terrorists wouldn’t be able to use nukes

16. Terrorism [cont’d] • Escalation debate is the key—if terrorism escalates, terrorism is just bad • Should tech out the means/motive/opportunity debate—the terror defense cards are now good enough that this debate is winnable • Will be the cornerstone of many Iraq and Afghanistan debates

17. Other Impacts • Climate Change • Democracy / DPT • Energy Security / Oil Prices • Latin America-U.S. Relations • Proliferation • X-U.S. Relations