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CT1/CT3 Meeting 22-23 April 2013 Hamburg

CT1/CT3 Meeting 22-23 April 2013 Hamburg WP1.1 Assessment of predictability of North Atlantic ocean surface state and key oceanic quantities controlling it , based on CMIP5 decadal prediction experiments Katja Lohmann MPG. Analysis of CMIP5 historical simulations.

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CT1/CT3 Meeting 22-23 April 2013 Hamburg

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  1. CT1/CT3 Meeting 22-23 April 2013 Hamburg WP1.1Assessment ofpredictabilityof North Atlanticoceansurfacestateandkeyoceanicquantitiescontrollingit, based on CMIP5 decadalpredictionexperiments Katja Lohmann MPG

  2. Analysis of CMIP5 historicalsimulations Inverse relationship between Arctic sea ice and Fram Strait ice export considering long-term trends (1957-2005): 6 CMIP5 models with several simulations Ice export trend based on NCEP Langehaug, Geyer, Smedsrud, and Gao, Ocean Modelling, 2013

  3. Predictability in the Nordic SeasOngoing analysisLangehaug, Gao, Eldevik, Lohmann, Matei • Decadal predictability will be assessed with CMIP5 hindcasts from: • MPI-ESM-LR • IPSL-CM5-LR • CNRM-CM5 • Preliminary results: • No robust prediction skill for the sea ice • Some peaks are reproduced (cf. box). • Future work: • Calculate predictive skill according to lead time. • Test predictability for SST and heat flux. Source: R. Curry, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution/Science/USGCRP. Satellite observations One model Nordic Seas sea ice

  4. Predictabilityof subpolar gyrestrength (MPI-M model) Correlationskillaccordingtolead time

  5. hindcasts 10 yrs 19492007 coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulation with data assimilation time series, whichiscomparedto SPG strengthfrom NCEP-forcedrun

  6. Predictabilityof SSS Plannedactivity: Assessment ofpredictabilityof SSS in CMIP5 decadalpredictionexperiments (http://pcmdi9.llnl.gov/esgf-web-fe/) againstobservationbaseddatasets CLISAP (subpolar region) and NISE (Nordic Seas)

  7. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union 7th Framework Programme (FP7 2007-2013), under grant agreement n.308299 NACLIM www.naclim.eu

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