SOCIAL SCIENCE FOR PUBLIC POLICY Habilitation Dissertation

1. SOCIAL SCIENCE FOR PUBLIC POLICYHabilitation Dissertation Professor Marian Zulean November 07, 2013

2. Outline I. Scientific, academic and professional accomplishments • Civil-military relations: an interdisciplinary theory • Democratic civilian control of the armed forces • Cultural difference between armed forces and parent society • Security sector reform • Public Policy Analysis as an applied social science • Policy analysis for national security • Policy analysis for higher education • Policy analysis for other public policy domains • Research in support of the teaching II. Scientific, academic and professional development plans • The impact of globalization on public policies • The Soldier and the State in the Global Age • Foresight in public policy analysis • Intellectual Capital Reporting

3. I argue that the proper role of social scientist is to contribute to the formulation of sound policy proposals able to initiate and manage social changes, based on scientific evidence and valid arguments. • ASSUMPTIONS: • We live in an era characterized by high speed of change, velocity of knowledge and globalization. • "Knowledge society" or "knowledge-based economy" became ultimate goals of the governance as well as keys in development strategies at national, regional or organizational level. Under those assumptions the policymakers are required to formulate evidence-based policies.

4. …the following presentation intend to describe how my scientific, research and teaching careers contributed to the understanding of wicked problems and supported the design of public policies in Romania.

5. 1. Civil-Military Relations

6. Civil-Military Relations theory • ... is an multi- and inter-disciplinary theory studied mainly by military sociology as well as by security studies and political science; • The main institutions that do research on CMR are RC 01 on Armed Forces and Conflict Resolution/International Sociological Association as well as the RC 24 of International Political Science Association • Academic roots start from classical sociologists such as August Comte, Karl Marx or Max Weber and continues through Samuel P. Huntington and Morris Janowitz • Main academic journals: Armed Forces and Society and Political and Military Sociology • … CMR became a core of national security policy issue worldwide after 1990s “The proper response is the liberal ‘bargain’ which defines specific rights and responsibilities for both the military and civilian leadership. The military must recognize that it is accountable to the rule of law; it must remain nonpartisan and respect civilian authority. For their part, civilians must respect the military’s special role in society, must provide adequate funding for appropriate military roles and missions, and must educate themselves so that they can interact positively with the military” (Nye 1995: 14).

7. My contributions to CMR theory: • Ph.D. thesis on Civil-Military Relations and National Security Policy in Romania • I touched upon the CMR topics such as: • democratic civilian control of the military (Zulean, 2003a, 2004c, 2007a, 2012e ), • cultural difference between armed forces and parent society (Zulean, 2005, 2010d ) and • security sector reform (Zulean, 2003c, 2004a, 2004b, 2008b, 2009)

8. 1.a. Democratic civilian control of the military- Romanian case study - “Since the democratic supervision of the military became a requirement for joining NATO according with the Study of NATO Enlargement of 1995, it grew considerably the interest for this problem in Central and Eastern Europe. Mr. Marian Zulean’s book, a Romanian young and promising researcher that approaches such a serious subject is a landmark. All the Romanians interested in the role of Romania in NATO should read this book” (Jeffrey Simon, NDU)

9. 1.a. Democratic civilian control of the military „Democratic soldering in Romania: from norms through policy to reality” “…Norms and institutions of democratic civil-military relations have been put into place in Romania, mainly with Western assistance, and the system of education describes an ideal type of the soldier. But in practice, training on such issues is rather missing from the curricula. Therefore, the norms are roughly internalized…” (Zulean: 224) - The chapter revealed a slight discrepancy between the ideal type of the democratic soldier as drawn up in the strategic documents and the real type. Despite the shortcomings the basic norms of democratic soldiering do take effect in the socialization process and are internalized by a majority of the soldiers.

10. 1.a. Democratic civilian control of the military- Comparative studies - • “Changing Patterns of Civil-Military Relations in Southeastern Europe”, Mediterranean Quarterly, (2004) “One of the findings was the appreciation that even if the civil-military reform process was triggered by internal forces, the guidance and know-how provided by Western institutions were vital for a successful transition.” • “The military in post-communist countries in transition”, in Social Sciences and the Military, Routledge(2007) • Chapters by David R.Segal, president of the IUS, Giuseppe Caforio, president of RC01 of ISA, Hans Born, Wilfred von Bredow, Marina Nuciari, Vladimir Rukashnikov, Joseph Soeters or Jay Williams. • One of my chapter’s conclusions was that “there is not a one-size-fits-all model of civil-military relations in Eastern Europe.” • In my chapter I realized an multi- and inter-disciplinary synthesis of literature dealing with transitions and the military, as well as to open new research subjects on civil-military relations and globalization.

11. 1.b. Cultural difference between armed forces and parent society • The existence of a cultural gap was a permanent topic of concern and research for contemporary military sociologists. • Romanian case study in Military Missions and their Implications Reconsidered: The Aftermath of September 11th, Elsevier, 2005, G. Caforio (ed) • The investigation of the Romanian future elites’ attitudes and values was carried out between September–December, 2003 on a total sample of 180 students, consisting of 89 military cadets from three military academies (Land-Sibiu, Air-Brasov and Navy-Constanta) and 91 civilian students from three universities (economics, law and political science)

12. Romanian Civil-Military Cultural Gap

13. 1.c. Security Sector Reform • “Romania: Analysis of the Stability Pact Self-Assessment Studies”, in Defence and Security Sector Governance and Reform in South East Europe Self-Assessment Studies,Eden Cole, Theodore Donais and Philipp Fluri(eds) , 2003 • “Reforming the Security Sectors in South Eastern Europe: Lessons Learned and their Relevance for a Wider Black Sea Area Policy” article in the Connections: Quarterly Journal, 2004 • As an open access article it has been indexed by Scientific Commons and hosted by 8 websites, ranging from Moldova to the Defense Institute of International Legal Studies from an American Navy Base in Rhode Island. Also, some papers such as a Report of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly (Middel, 2006) or the Zachary Ritter working paper (Ritter, 2006)

14. 1.c. Security Sector Reform • “From National, Through Regional, To Universal… The Security Sector Reform in Romania”, chapter in Global Determinants of Defense Reform, Tom Bruneau (ed), Palgrave, (2008) • ”…Romania set up the basic constitutional provisions and a legal framework for democratic control of the security sector, new missions and defense planning mechanisms allow a yearly assessment of defense policy in critical terms and the most important mechanisms of democratic civilian control are those of the budgetary allocation and of transparency” • “Reforma sistemului de securitate: de la CADA la CADI” (2009), policypaper in SferaPoliticii

15. Summary of my accomplishments: • my research interest started with the case of Romania, went to comparative studies and it is touching now the global issues (ongoing research on civil-military relations in the Global Age) • I am a full member of the most relevant research and professional associations: IUS, RC01/ISA, ERGOMAS, president of Military Sociology Section of SSR • Member of the Board of Editors for Political and Military Sociology: An Annual Review • Included in the U.S. Army War College Library compilation Civil-Military Relations- a Selected Bibliography

16. 2. Public Policy Analysis: as an applied social science

17. Policy Analysis is an applied science discipline which uses multiple methods of inquiry and argument to produce and transform policy relevant information that may be utilized in political settings to resolve policy problems” (Dunn, 1981: 35).

18. I touched upon different aspects clustered in 3 topics of policy analysis:

19. 2.a. Policy Analysis for National Security • „Problem structuring in public policy analysis: the case of security studies” proposed a normative model that contributes to an objective and scientific definition of national security policy; • “Emergency Preparedness in Romania: Dynamics, Shortcomings and Policy Proposals”” (Zulean, Prelipcean, 2013) explains the characteristics of the Romanian emergency system, the risk perception of the local leaders and how they use of strategic planning and foresight methodologies in emergency preparedness • Original methodological contribution : an empirical study using a very core policy analysis methodology, Delphi study • It confirmed the perception that earthquakes and floods are the most expected catastrophes but a consensus has been built around the probability and preparedness for the forest fires and other natural catastrophes of great concern for the local leaders, not considered by the National Security Strategy.

20. 2.b. Policy Analyses for Higher Education • „Systemic Foresight for Romanian Higher Education” (Zulean et alli, 2012c), Springer, discussed the structure of and the challenges rose by such foresight exercise within the “Quality and Leadership for Romanian Higher Education” project • One of the conclusions was that the wicked problems of HE reform in Romania should be solved by the systemic foresight. The systemic approach needs to be understood in terms of the inter-subjective knowledge evolving in the policy community and less in terms of simple representations of the system and its dynamics.

21. 2.b. Policy Analyses for Higher Education • “Understanding normative foresight outcomes: Scenario development and the 'veil of ignorance' effect” (Zulean et alli), Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2013 • The first part looks at the system foresight as a system of inquiry. • The second part developed the core of the argument, suggesting an analogy of scenario development with a famous thought experiment in political philosophy – John Rawls’s “original position” / “veil of ignorance”. • The third section spells out some implications of our hypothesis for the development of normative narratives- that normative scenarios in system foresight tend to focus on “the frame of the future”, rather than merely on the picture inside the frame..

23. 2.c. Policy Analysis for other public policy domains • „Romania: Where Europe Ends?” in the European book Opening the Door: Immigration and Integration in the European Union, edited by the Centre for European Studies describes and explains the phenomenon of immigration and integration of the migrants in Romania • Romanian-Russian relations in 2012, in 2012 Watch published by the Centre for EU-Russia Studies (CEURUS) at the University of Tartu (Estonia) • “Anti-missile defense: risks and opportunities”, for a special issue of 22 journal, in February 2012, that brought together policymakers and academics such as: Ellen Tauscher, US Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, Theodor Baconschi, then minister of Foreign Affairs, gen (rez.) ConstantinDegeratu, the American professor and former policy adviser Daniel N. Nelson and ValeriuStoica • “Consequences of Ukrainian Presidential Elections on Relations with Romania” - published by Polish Euro-Atlantic Association in UkrainaBlizejZachodu

24. 3. Research in support of the teaching • “ArmatasiSocietatea: culegere de texte de sociologiemilitara”, 1998, Handbook co-editor • “Fortelearmatesisocietatea: textefundamentale de sociologiemilitara”, 2010, editor • “PoliticiPublice” published at Politea,2002, Miroiu, Zulean and Radoi • “Politica de securitatenationala”, 2007, Polirom On the managerial realm I set up two master programs: a master program on the European Public Policy and a second on Crisis Management.

25. II. Scientific, academic and professional development plans

26. In the near and mid-term future I would like to develop and research the following topics:

27. The “Soldier and the State” in the Global Age • The primary goal of this research project is to describe and explain the role of the military in a global society, taking into consideration the changes states themselves suffered Grand Tour Question: • How globalization influences the civil-military relations? Secondary Questions: • How globalization influences both societies and military missions? • What kind of relations should be desirable to be established between a trans-national civil society and the military deployed out of the national territories?

28. The impact of globalization on public policies The fundamental objective of this project is to explore the impact of globalization on public policies. The main questions the research would like to answer are: • How do we better define the fuzzy concepts of globalization, governance and public policy? • Is multidimensional concept of globalization an independent variable? • How can we capture and measure the dynamics of globalization? • How can we bypass the national orientation of statistics (Eurostat still based on national indicators)? • What are the strengths and weaknesses of Romanian public policies in the Global Age?

29. Foresight in public policy analysis • The main goal of this project is to explore the use of foresight for anticipatory governance and to advocate the use of foresight methodology for policy analysis in designing sound policy proposals. • Foresight can be viewed as an interface between science, policy and concerned spheres of the society, implying flows of knowledge among these spheres (Schomberg et alli, 2005) • An output of the project would be a Handbook on Policy Analysis to include foresight methodologies

30. Intellectual Capital Reporting within the Knowledge Economy • The main goal of this project will be to assess and understand the contribution of the intellectual capital to the growth and development of an organization in the knowledge economy and to critically build an instrument for performance management of universities, regions and nations. • From the EU perspective, the Intellectual Capital is the combination of an organization’s human, relational and organizational resources and activities (European Commission, 2006)

31. THANK YOU!