Advancing Science and Building Capacity to Support Adaptation

1. Advancing Science and Building Capacity to Support Adaptation The AIACC Project Neil Leary Adaptation Day - COP8 Habitat Center, New Delhi 28 October 2002

2. IPCC Third Assessment Report affirmed • Developing countries are especially vulnerable to climate change • Adaptation is necessary as a complement to greenhouse gas emission reductions • Attention has focused on the need to develop adaptation strategies that would be effective in developing countries.

3. Developing sound adaptation strategies requires good science • Scientific investigation needed to answer: • Who are most vulnerable? • To what are they vulnerable? • What are the causes of their vulnerability? • What are their options for adaptation and what are the consequences and costs of adaptation? • Answering these questions can help to identify effective adaptation strategies

4. But . . . • Scientific understanding is incomplete • Though sufficient to begin acting, • Must continually add to knowledge and adjust policies accordingly • Scientific and technical capacity is generally deficient in developing countries • There is a need to advance scientific understanding and build capacity to support adaptation actions in developing countries

5. AIACC is a project developed to address these needs • Advance scientific understanding • Build and enhance scientific and technical capacities in developing countries • Engage with stakeholders to produce information useful for adaptation planning • Contribute to National Communications and National Adaptation Plans of Action (NAPA)

6. AIACC Partners • Proposal for this global, 4-year initiative developed in collaboration with • IPCC, UNEP, START, and TWAS • Global Environment Facility (GEF) provided primary funding (7.5 million USD) • USAID, USEPA and World Bank have provided supplemental funding • Participating institutions in developing countries have provided collateral funding

7. 24 regional studies funded • 150+ proposals submitted in 2001 for regional studies of climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability • Proposals were peer reviewed • Awards made in 2002 based on • Scientific merit • Regional significance

8. AIACC studies active in 46 developing countries • Each study involves a team of scientists from multiple disciplines • 235+ scientists from developing countries participating as lead investigators • 60+ graduate and undergraduate students • 40+ scientists from developed countries collaborating

10. Support provided to each study • 3-years research funding (100k to 225k USD) • Participation in • Training • Mentoring • Scientific network

11. Activities in 2002 • 24 regional studies launched • 3 workshops held to • Assist with refining study designs and implementation • Provide training in methods for constructing climate change scenarios and assessment of impacts, adaptation and vulnerability • Mentoring activities initiated

12. Activities in 2003 • 24 studies will continue their research • Workshops in Africa, Asia and Latin America • Present and discuss preliminary results • Share expertise, collaborate to solve problems • Capacity building activities • Visiting scientist programs, training courses, etc • Stakeholder engagement activities • Development of web-based information network

13. 2nd-Generation Assessments • Emphasize understanding vulnerabilities • Who is vulnerable to harm? From what? Why? • Explore multiple, interacting stresses • Climate change, extreme weather, population growth, land use change, urbanization, . . . • Evaluate responses, adaptations • Focus responses on causes of vulnerability • Engage stakeholders • Enhance relevance, utility, credibility

14. Framework for “2nd Generation” Assessment

15. 1st Generation Motivation: how bad are the risks? Modus: to “predict” impacts Careful attention to modeling future exposure Typically focus on a single stress Other causes of vulnerability get little attention Treatment of adaptation is ad hoc, afterthought 2nd Generation Motivation: what responses can reduce risks? Modus: to investigate causes of vulnerability Careful attention to social causes of vulnerability Multiple stresses considered Recent experience with hazards, stresses used as analogues Treatment of adaptation central Comparison of 1st & 2nd Generation Assessments

16. Examples of AIACC regional studies

17. Integrated Assessment of Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability in Watersheds and Communities of Southeast Asia • Philippines and Indonesia • University of Philippines at Los Banos • Institute Pertanian Bogor • Impacts of climate change and land use change on water resources, forest ecosystems and social systems in selected watersheds • Vulnerability of people dependent upon these resources • Evaluate adaptation strategies • Train scientists from Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia

18. Drought and vulnerability of rural households in W. African Sahel • Nigeria and Mali • University of Jos, Nigeria • Institut D’Economie Rural, Mali • Past/present vulnerabilities of household food & livelihood security from drought to be evaluated using survey techniques and observational data • Develop and apply models of future vulnerabilities and adaptive responses under scenarios of climate change. • Attempt to identify thresholds for coping with climatic extremes and evaluate risks of exceeding thresholds in future climate

19. Water resources, extreme events and climate change in Central America • Guatamala, Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Costa Rica and Panama • University of Costa Rica • Comite Regional de Recursos Hidraulicos • Vulnerabilities to extreme events will be analyzed in context of regional dynamics. • Scenarios of future climate change and extremes will be developed. • Impacts on water resources and water uses will be assessed. • Adaptation capacity, mechanisms and options will be evaluated.

20. Coastal vulnerability and adaptation in Pacific Island Countries • Fiji and Cook Islands • University of the South Pacific, Fiji • South Pacific Regional Environment Programme • International Global Change Institute, University of Waikato, New Zealand • Integrated assessment of biophysical impacts on coasts, agriculture, water resources and health for scenarios of climate change, sea level rise, and socioeconomic change. • Develop new models to evaluate human consequences and vulnerabilities. • Identify and evaluate adaptation options.

21. Anticipated outcomes • Publication of peer reviewed papers. • Increased numbers of developing country researchers who are actively engaged in global change research. • Increased participation of developing country scientists in future assessments of IPCC. • Wider understanding of climate change issues among stakeholder groups in developing countries. • Use of AIACC generated information in National Communications and NAPAs.