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Modeling Pacific Physical and Biological Processes

Modeling Pacific Physical and Biological Processes. Fei CHAI University of Maine U.S.A. 1. Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS): 12-km Resolution. Sea Surface Temperature ( SST ) Sea Surface Height ( SSH ) 3 day averaged model output 1993 to 2006.

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Modeling Pacific Physical and Biological Processes

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  1. Modeling Pacific Physical and Biological Processes Fei CHAI University of Maine U.S.A. 1

  2. Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS): 12-km Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Sea Surface Height (SSH) 3 day averaged model output 1993 to 2006 2006 1993 4-km 1-km 12-km

  3. Model Satellite First Mode of EOF Analysis of SSH

  4. Benthivorous Fish Pelagic Invertebrate Predators Piscivorous Fish Planktivorous Fish spawning Suspension- feeding Benthos Nitrate+Nitrite DOC Ammonia Deposit-feeding Benthos Seabirds Detritus Fishing Marine Mammals recruitment Pre-recruits Pre-recruits Pre-recruits Micro- Zooplankton Meso- Zooplankton Nano- Phytoplankton Phytoplankton Bacteria How to Link?

  5. 3D Circulation-Ecosystem Modeling Modular Ocean Model (MOM) Basin scale, coarse resolution (0.5o to 2o), 1950 - 2003 Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) Basin scale, finer resolution (1/2o), 1950-2006 Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) Basin scale, finer resolution (12.5km), 1990-2006 West Coast of the North America (NCOM) 9 Km with physical data assimilation, 1998 - present Gulf of Maine (POM) 3 Km resolution with SST assimilation, 2002 - present

  6. Winter surface NO3 difference (1979-90) - (1964-75) PDO Index and Modeled Primary Production Anomaly Ekman Pumping Anomaly and Modeled Chlorophyll Front (0.2 mg/m3) Anomaly Chai et al., 2003

  7. ROMS-Biology (50-km) Simulated Surface Chlorophyll (mg/m3) Gulf of Alaska, averaged 15 May - 15 June (1997-2000) 1998 1999 2000 1997 Jan. April Aug. Dec.

  8. Coupled Bio-Physical Modeling NRL West Coast NCOM with SeaWIFS Chlorophyll NRL West Coast NCOM with Model Chlorophyll Monthly Sequence: June – August 2001

  9. Pacific Basin ROMS-CoSINE (12-km) SimulationAnnual Mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Modeled SST (oC) Satellite SST (oC) 9

  10. 10 Surfare Chlorophyll Comparisonin situ, the modeled, and SeaWiFS Historical Data SeaWiFS 1997-2006

  11. Seasonal SST Comparison Observed QuikScat NCEP COADS Dec Jan

  12. An Individual Based Model (IBM) for Peruvian Anchovy • Model the entire anchovy life history: spawning events, egg hatching, larva development, growth of juvenile and adults • Based on conservation of energy (bioenergetics): growth=consumption-respiration-egestion-excretion • Input: temperature and four plankton groups from ROMS-CoSiNE; Output: anchovy growth (length and weight) • 3D circulation, offline simulation, output: location, length and weight

  13. Anchovy Recruitment in Response to ENSO Temperature mesozooplankton Recruitment mesozooplankton diatom diatom Recruitment Moderate El Nino Strong El Nino • There is a clear seasonal and interannual variability characterized by anchovy recruitment to 5cm.

  14. El Nino and Peruvian Anchovy Fishery Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly 10 x 106 MT Annual Anchovy Catch

  15. Goal • To provide data and data products that serve public • and private sector needs for: • solving practical problems • predicting events, and • further understanding natural systems • in the Gulf of Maine GoMOOS - http://www.gomoos.org

  16. Xue et al., CRS, 2006

  17. Modeled Surface Chlorophyll, April 2002 SeaWiFS April 2002

  18. Comparing with Buoy B, E, I Black: buoy (night time values) Red: model Green: SeaWiFS

  19. Challenges and Recommendations • Physical, nutrients, plankton, and higher levels • Improving physical models, data assimilation • Spatial and temporal scales, • Basin-regional-local; seasonal, interannual, and decadal • Surface forcing (wind, heat, fresh water), boundaries • Cannot proceed by simply including more variables • Simplify the problem with focusing on target species • Incorporating structured population and IBM • Considering uncertainties, probabilistic simulations • Better communication

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