Focus Model Overview CLASS TWO

1. Focus Model OverviewCLASS TWO Denver Regional Council of Governments June 30, 2011

2. Notes • http://www.drcog.org/index.cfm?page=FocusTechnicalResources • Next week’s class is in Independence Pass from 2-3 PM; New Go To Webinar next week • On-going classes through August 4; Thursdays 2-3 PM in Monarch • Tentative Schedule: Model Steps July 7 How to Run the Model July 14 Theoretical Underpinning July 21 SQL Database July 28 ????? August 4

3. Review of General Concepts • 1. Logit Models are models that make assign probabilities to a set of choices for an individual from a list of discrete choices. • 2. The actual choice is made using a montecarlo process. • 3. Travel in the model is made on a tour-level, and then a trip level. • 4. We can divide the model into four stages. • 5. We use four types of code in the model: T-SQL, C#, GISDK, and Java. • 6. Much of the input and output data is stored in SQL Server. • 7. We still have to run parts of our old GISDK code for path building, skimming and assignment. • 8. We are doing this because we can get much finer detail and answer planning questions better using the model.

4. Focus Model Flow: 28 Steps Outside The Speed Feedback Loop: Run Once- STAGE 1 GISDK called from C#: GISDK Preprocess Java: 3. Population Synthesizer C# 4. PopSyn Output Processor 5. Size Sum Variable Calculator STAGE 2 GISDK called from C#: For DIA, I-E, E-E and Commercial Trips 1. DRCOG Multi-Period Highway Preprocess 2. DRCOG Multi-Period Transit Preprocess 3. DRCOG Transit Preprocess 4. Trip Generation 5. Highway and Transit Skimming 6. Trip Distribution 7. Mode Choice STAGE 3 C# Regular Trips 8. Regular Work Location Choice 19 . Tour Main Mode Choice 9. Regular School Location Choice 20. Tour Time of Day Choice 10. Auto Availability 21. Intermediate Stop Generation 11. Aggregate Logsum Generation 22. Trip Time of Day Simulation 12.Daily Activity Pattern 23. Trip Time Copier 13. Exact Number of Tours 24. Intermediate Stop Location 14.Work Tour Destination Type 25. Trip Mode Choice 15.Work-Based Subtour Generation 26. Trip Time of Day Choice 16. Tour Time of Day Simulation 27. Write Trips to TransCAD 17. Tour Primary Destination Choice 18. Tour Priority Assignment STAGE 4 GISDK called from C#: 28. Highway and Transit Assignment FEEDBACK

5. Focus Model Flow: Stage 1 FEEDBACK

6. STAGE 1: Make Population and Network • Java: Population Synthesizer • C# to process in database: Size Sum Variable Calculator; PopSyn Output Processor • GISDK called from C#: GISDK Preprocess Creating networks for example

7. Population Synthesizer ACS or PUMS Disaggregate Data Aggregate Data that We Need to Match: Economic Forecasts, Land Use Forecasts Disaggregate Population With the Right Portions Matching the Economic and Land Use Forecasts Questions?

8. People come out as disaggregate unique entities with many characteristics. Example Family: Mother, Age 33 Part Time Service Worker Father, Age 34 Full Time Education Worker Son, Age 4 Pre-School Student Family Income : $61,000

9. Data Gets Processed into a Database Structure

10. Database Structure Created and FilledPeople

11. Database Structure Created and FilledPlaces

12. What are:Tours, Half Tours, Half Tour Stops, Trips WORK HOME STORE

13. Database Structure Created and NOT Filled YET Travel

14. Household Monte Carlo • PopSyn assigns the zone they live in. Then the model randomly assign the households to a point within the zone.

15. Give Each Household a Housing Unit to Live in. A disaggregate X-Y point

16. GISDK:Preprocess Highway Network Inputs Transit Network Inputs Socio-economic Inputs Network Processing & Data Preparation Area Type Trip Generation Highway Skimming Transit Skimming Trip Distribution Parking Cost Mode Choice Time-of-Day Highway Assignment Transit Assignment

17. Stage One is done. Everything outside feedback loop is done. Now we have : • 1. A synthesized population • 2. A database filled with point locations and people, model variables • 3. A set of highway and transit networks ready for use.

18. Focus Model Flow: Stage 2 FEEDBACK

19. GISDK:For Skimmingand External/Commercial Trips Highway Network Inputs Transit Network Inputs Socio-economic Inputs Network Processing & Data Preparation Area Type Trip Generation Highway Skimming Transit Skimming Trip Distribution Parking Cost Mode Choice Time-of-Day Highway Assignment Transit Assignment

20. Stage 2:GISDK Through Mode Choice • All C#, trip-making components use travel time and distance skims for highway and transit • Internal-External, External-External, trips destined to DIA and Commercial Trips created from Compass GISDK • Later these trips get combined with the regular Internal-Internal Trips from C# into matrices by time-of-day by mode

21. Skim matrices(distance)

22. Time Periods for Skims • TIMES OF DAY • Highway Times of DayTransit Times of Day • AM1: 6:30 – 7:00 AM; AM: 6:30- 9:00 AM • AM2: 7:00 – 8:00 AM; • AM3: 8:00 – 9:00 AM; • OP2: 9:00 – 11:30 AM; MD: 9:00 AM- 3:00 PM PM • OP3: 11:30 AM – 3:00 PM; • PM1: 3:00 – 5:00 PM; PM: 3:00 PM -7:00 PM • PM2: 5:00 – 6:00 PM; • PM3: 6:00 – 7:00 PM; • OP4: 7:00 – 11:00 PM. EL: 7:00 PM – 6:00 AM • OP1: 11:00 PM – 6:30 AM;

23. Trip Tables (this is commercial)

24. GISDK Through Mode Choice • So we run trip generation, trip distribution, and mode choice for the funky trips • This is run from C# calling GISDK. • The C# pops open a TransCAD window and calls the macros that have been specified to run.

25. Stage 2 is done. • Now we have a LOT of matrices: • All highway and transit skims • A set of commercial and external trips O-Ds • A set of DIA trips O-Ds and modes • And all stage one outputs: population, networks, a ready database.

26. Focus Model Flow: Stage 3 FEEDBACK

27. Talking time: Let’s talk about ourselves • What are the set of choices that make you travel like you do? • What is the highest priority? • What is unique about you that guides your choices? • What are the smaller choices you make each day? • What strange behaviors to you have that would be really hard to model?

28. The steps in Stage 3. Mostly Logit Models. The heart of the model. • 8. Regular Work Location Choice 19 . Tour Main Mode Choice • 9. Regular School Location Choice 20. Tour Time of Day Choice • 10. Auto Availability 21. Intermediate Stop Generation • 11. Aggregate Logsum Generation 22. Trip Time of Day Simulation • 12.Daily Activity Pattern 23. Trip Time Copier • 13. Exact Number of Tours 24. Intermediate Stop Location • 14.Work Tour Destination Type 25. Trip Mode Choice • 15.Work-Based Subtour Generation 26. Trip Time of Day Choice • 16. Tour Time of Day Simulation 27. Write Trips to TransCAD • 17. Tour Primary Destination Choice • 18. Tour Priority Assignment

29. Long Term Choices • 8. Regular Work Location Choice • 9. Regular School Location Choice • 10. Auto Availability • 11. Aggregate Logsum Generation

30. Long Term Choices: Regular Workplace Location • Where will I work? Final Choice: Two nests- Work at Home, Work Outside Home Zone and X,Y Location of Work Type of Model: Nested Logit Inputs: (What do you think predicts?) Number of Jobs by type in in a zone Distance from Home to Work Full Time Worker or Part Time Worker Job Sector Accessibility of Work Location from Home

31. Here’s how the choice looks, sent back to the database Persons table:

32. Long term choice 2:Regular School Location Final Choice: Zone and X,Y Location of School Type of Model: Multinomial Logit Inputs: (What do you think predicts?) Grade Level in School Distance to School from Home Income Group Older Sibling’s School