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Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia

Deyr 2010/11. Information for Better Livelihoods. Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia. January 26, 2011. Shabelle Regions. Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC. EUROPEAN COMMISSION. Deyr 2010/11 Seasonal Assessment Coverage

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Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia

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  1. Deyr 2010/11 Information for Better Livelihoods Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia January 26, 2011 Shabelle Regions Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC EUROPEAN COMMISSION

  2. Deyr 2010/11 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field Access and Field Data Locations • Field Coverage in Shabelle Regions: • FS field analysts in Lower and Middle Shabelle had access to field in most districts, including Qoryaley, Kurtunwarey, Merca and Afgoye in L/Sh and Balad, Jowhar and parts of Cadale districts in M/Sh. • In the areas that could not be accessed by the Field Analysts directly, Food Security information was collected through teleconferencing using enumerators with key informants/focus groups. In addition, FS analysts travelled to most districts for crop assessment, field observation, livestock and market conditions. • Nutrition information was obtained through partners and key informants.

  3. Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income • Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Income: • Riverine livelihood: • Primary sources of income of poor: sale of crops, agricultural labour, and self employment. • Primary food sources of poor: Own crop and purchase. • Primary livelihood asset of poor: Agriculture land • Agropastoral Livelihoods (Agropastoral Maize/cattle and Agropastoral Sorghum/cattle) • Agropastoral Maize/Cattle: Primary sources of income of poor : crop sale, agricultural labour, livestock and livestock product sales, self-employment (fodder sales, firewood, construction materials, etc); • Main sources of food of poor: own production(maize) and purchase. • Agropastoral Sorghum/Cattle: Primary sources of income of poor: crop sale, agricultural labour, livestock and livestock product sales, self-employment (fodder sales, firewood, construction materials, etc); main sources of food : own production(Sorghum) and purchase.

  4. Climate Performance of the Deyr 2010 Rainfall Climate: Deyr 2010/2011 dekadal rainfall performances Overall statement: Deyr rains have failed in all livelihoods of the Shabelle regions. Satellite imagery indicate cumulative rainfall (October-December) of 0-20% of the normal. • Start of Season: started on time • Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Very low intensity of rains, with inadequate duration, frequency and amount in both regions. Source:

  5. Climate Vegetation Conditions (M.Shabelle) NDVI/RFE trend by district & land cover

  6. Climate Vegetation Conditions (L.Shabelle) NDVI/RFE trend by district & land cover

  7. Civil Insecurity • Civil Security Situation: • High political tension among religious groups • Prolonged political confrontation in Mogadishu, and likely new conflicts at the border of M. Shabelle with Hiran • Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition: • Market disruption mainly in the districts surrounding Mogadishu. • Short term impact on urban areas and transportation routes in conflict areas. • Restriction of humanitarian intervention - (suspension of World vision, Diakonia and ADRA activities in southern Somalia) negatively impacting access to food and basic services (IDPs health posts and feeding centers ). • High taxation by local authorities in the rural areas that led many households to migrate to less controlled areas. Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster

  8. Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Crop Production Estimates

  9. AgricultureCereal Production Trends in Middle Shabelle (1995-2010) Deyr 10/11 Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2010) Annual Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2010)

  10. Agriculture Cereal Production Trends in Lower Shabelle (1995-2010) Deyr 10/11 Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2010) Annual Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2010)

  11. AgricultureDeyr 2010/11 Cereal Production Trends in Shabelle Regions – Combined (1995-2010)

  12. Agriculture Regional Contribution to Overall Deyr 2010/11 Cereal Production in Southern Somalia Shabelle regions collectively account for 72% of the total cereal production (maize and sorghum) in southern Somalia.

  13. AgricultureDeyr 2010/11 Cash Crop Production Estimates(Mt)– Middle Shabelle

  14. Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Cash Crop Production Estimates – Lower Shabelle

  15. Agriculture Differences Between Riverine Areas in M and L. Shabelle Regions

  16. Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos Good Riverine Rice Crop. Kallundi, Jowhar, M. Shabelle, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10 Poor Maize Crop. Marka, Lower Shabelle, FSNAU, December 2010. Significant drop down of Shabelle River Level. Qoryoley, Lower Shabelle, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10. Good sesame,Goosarow,Qoryoley,Lower Shabelle, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10

  17. Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Local Cereal Flow: Maize from Shabelle flows to Mogadishu markets and then to Hiran and central regions

  18. Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade Trends in Cereal Prices: Jowhar (Middle Shabelle) • Factors Influencing cereal prices: • Poor Maize production - Riverine • Sorghum crop failure in all agropastoral livelihoods. • High demand on maize from neighbouring regions, including Banadir Trends in Cereal Prices: Afgoye, Marka and Qoryoley (Lower Shabelle)

  19. Agriculture Labour Rates & Availability Middle Shabelle (Jowhar) • Factors Influencing Wage Labour Rates: • High supply of casual labour (L. Shabelle in particular), pushing down the wage rates. • Agricultural activities such as canal rehabilitation/road maintenance as a cash for work • Seasonality Lower Shabelle (all main markets)

  20. Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Jowhar, Middle Shabelle (5 kg of maize/ daily wage rate) • Factors affecting Terms of Trade: • High cereal prices • Decrease in labour wage rates • High supply of casual labour due to labour migration from agro-pastoral areas following a very poor seasonal performance. Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Lower Shabelle (6 kg of maize/ daily wage rate)

  21. Livestock Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration in Deyr ’10/11 • Poor performance of Deyr ’10/11 season in both regions resulting in below normal pasture and water • Abnormal migration to riverine areas of both regions.

  22. Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production

  23. Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices: M/ Shabelle (Jowhar) Livestock Trends in Goat Prices • Factors Influencing livestock prices: • Poor body condition • Less saleable animals in Middle Shabelle • Increased livestock supply into Lower Shabelle markets after an influx of livestock from other livelihoods and regions into riverine • Low livestock demand after the end of Hajj period Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices: L/ Shabelle (all markets)

  24. Livestock Trends in Cattle Prices Regional Trends in Local Cattle Prices (M/ Shabelle) - Jowhar • Factors Influencing Livestock Prices: • Poor body condition • High livestock supply into markets after an influx of livestock into riverine areas • Reduced sales at Garissa market due to poor pasture and shortage of water along cattle trekking route to the market • Low livestock demand after Hajj period Regional Trends in Local Cattle Prices (L/Shabelle) – All markets

  25. Livestock Trends in Terms of Trade – goat to cereal Regional Trends inTerms of Trade: M/ Shabelle (64kg of maize/goat) - Jawhar • Factors Influencing Goat to Maize ToT: • High Cereal Prices • Decreased livestock prices due to poor body conditions and high supply. Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Goat: L/ Shabelle (98 kg/head) – all markets

  26. Livestock Trends in Terms of Trade – local quality cattle to cereal Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: M/ Shabelle (267kg of maize/head of cattle) • Factors Influencing TOT (cattle to maize): • High Cereal Prices • Decreased livestock prices due to poor body conditions, low demand and high supply. Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: L/ Shabelle ( 176 kg of maize/head of cattle)

  27. Markets Trends in Imported Commodity Prices • Factors Affecting Commercial Import Price increase (last six months) • Disruption in commercial imports and Bakkara market, due to persisting fighting in Mogadishu and continuous piracy activities • Increase in prices on international markets

  28. NutritionSummary of Nutrition Findings

  29. Nutrition Nutrition Situation Estimates Nutrition Situation Estimates, January 2011 Nutrition Situation Estimates, July 2010

  30. IPCSummary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation (M.Shabelle) MAP 3: Livelihood Zones MAP 2: IPC Deyr 2010/11 MAP 1: IPC Gu 2010 • Key IPC Reference Outcomes: Middle Shabelle (Central Agro-Pastoral (Aden Yabal and Adale) 50% Poor in HE, 50% Poor AFLC with Watch. Southern Agropastoral (Balad & Jowhar) 75% Poor AFLC with Watch, riverine (Balad and Jowhar) 50% Poor AFLC with Moderate Risk, Coastal Deeh 50% Poor in HE, 50% Poor AFLC with Watch. • Acute malnutrition: insufficient data with signs of deterioration and likely to be Critical – Central AP • Food Access: entitlement gap; 2100kcal ppp/day • Water Access: average with poor quality • Destitution/Displacement: IDP concentration in camps; increasing. • Coping: collection of bush products, social support including Zakat of animals and crop - riverine, gifts in kind or cash, migration. • Livelihood Assets: remain same as in Gu ’10 in most LZs but deteriorated in Coastal Deeh. • Main Contributing Factors: • Rainfall failure • Crop failure production • High cereal prices • Declining terms of trade • Job opportunity migrate to riverine • Poor livestock body condition and low livestock prices.

  31. IPCSummary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation (L.Shabelle) MAP 1: IPC Gu 2010 MAP 3: Livelihood Zones MAP 2: IPC Deyr 2010/11 Key IPC Reference Outcomes:Lower Shabelle: Agropastoral (Wanlaweyn) BFI with High Risk (25% Poor in AFLC), Southeast Pastoral - BFI with Moderate Risk, Southern Inland Pastoral - BFI with Moderate Risk, riverine - BFI with Moderate Risk, Southern Coastal Pastoral - BFI with Moderate risk. • Acute malnutrition: Insufficient data with signs of deterioration and likely to be Critical • Food Access: borderline adequate (2100kcal ppp day) • Water Access: Average, but quality is very poor. • Destitution/Displacement: concentrated; increasing • Coping: insurance strategies - Collection of bush products, social support including Zakat of animals and crops - riverine. • Livelihood Assets: deteriorating for agro-pastoral and pastoral Main Contributing Factors: • Maize and cash crop production (riverine) • Carry-over stocks • Cash for work, cash from grass sale • Low labour wages • High milk price • High grass prices for pastoralist and agropastoralists • High cereal prices

  32. IPCClassification of Rural Population (L.Shabelle)

  33. IPC Classification of Rural Population (M.Shabelle)

  34. IPCEstimated Urban Population in AFLC & HE by District

  35. The End

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