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The Energy Mix for a Sustainable Future Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency World Bank Energy

The Energy Mix for a Sustainable Future Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency World Bank Energy Week Washington, 7 March 2006. 18 000. 16 000. 14 000. Natural gas. 12 000. 10 000. Mtoe. Oil. 8 000. 6 000. Hydro. Coal. 4 000. power. 2 000.

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The Energy Mix for a Sustainable Future Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency World Bank Energy

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  1. The Energy Mix for a Sustainable Future Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency World Bank Energy Week Washington, 7 March 2006

  2. 18 000 16 000 14 000 Natural gas 12 000 10 000 Mtoe Oil 8 000 6 000 Hydro Coal 4 000 power 2 000 Other renewables Nuclear power 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Business-as-usual Scenario Based on current trends global energy demand will rise by 52 % by 2030

  3. This is Not Sustainable!

  4. Oil Exports to Key Demand Centers All the key oil demand centers will become more dependent on imports as the Middle East and North Africa plays an increasing role in global supply

  5. World Energy-Related CO2 Emissions Global emissions grow 62% between now & 2030, with developing countries’ emissions overtaking OECD’s in the 2020s

  6. Electricity Deprivation In 2030, if no new policies are implemented, there will still be 1.4 billion people without electricity

  7. “We will act with resolve and urgency to meet our shared multiple objectives of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, improving the global environment, enhancing energy security and cutting air pollution in conjunction with our vigorous efforts to reduce poverty“ -- from “G8 Gleneagles Communiqué”

  8. Global CO2 Emissions in the Reference & Alternative Scenarios Policies that governments are already considering – but have not yet enacted – would cut CO2 emissions by 16% in 2030

  9. Opportunities for Energy Efficiency and CO2 Emissions:Coal Fired Electricity Generation in China

  10. Coal Replace 300 conventional, 500-MW coal power plants with “zero-emission” power plants, which means….. CO2 Sequestration Install 1000 Sleipner CO2 sequestration plants Wind Install 200 x current US wind generation Solar PV Install 1300 x current US solar generation Nuclear Efficient Lighting Build 150 1-GW power plants Replace ~95% of incandescence lighting (i.e. phase out) Avoiding 1 Billion Tons of CO2 per Year Adapted from Pacala & Socolow, Science 2004

  11. Key Messages • There is no single solution for a sustainable energy future • A broad portfolio is needed but some features are clear: • Energy Efficiency … available now at low or no cost ! • Natural Gas, Coal … with CO2 capture & storage • Biofuels, Renewables … with lower costs • Nuclear.… with safe waste management • H2 & Fuel Cells … with lower cost • Fusion … maybe, in the very long term

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