Syros Workshop 2007 (NRF) , 12-15.07.2007

1. Greece: high growth with low ICT contributionHow can technology-fueled growth be put on a sustainable path? • Syros Workshop 2007 (NRF), 12-15.07.2007 • Organized by: NTUA (Laboratory of Industrial and Energy Economics) • Support: iris-europe project (http://atlantis-group.gr/projects/iris-e/) Petros KAVASSALIS

2. Sat. afternoon session: Case studies (and new research directions) • Petros Kavassalis: intro (10 min) • Iro Nikiforou: 20 Greek cases on ICT adoption (iris-e project) – first conclusions (20 min) • Petros Kavassalis: Theoretical implications from cases-study work – coordinate ICT adoption through efficient technology markets and supporting institutuons… (10 min) • Thanassis Priftis: More ITC cases: How Local Governments adopt ICT… (10 min) • Petros Stefaneas: Digital Terrestrial TV – frame the development of a consumer industry (10 min) • PAUSE • Marianna Sigala: Coordinate ICT adoption in tourism through “collective institutions”… (20 min) • Ilias Vlachos: Profiles of demand for ICT goods (20 min) • Discussants: T. Karounos & T. Darmaros [express yourself at any time!] • 20 min discussion • Closing event: celebrate Stefaneas’ published book!

3. High growth rates driven the last years by: Fixed Investment (equipment) Exports (South Eastern Europe) Main components of GDP (2005) Private Consumption (68%) Fixed investment (23%) Exports (18%) Also: Fast-growing services sector (Tourism2GDP: 10%) Competitiveness and productivity low (signs of improvement for productivity) Greece: high growth rates for 10 yearsGDP per capita (1995-2005): EU 2nd, OECD 2nd

4. … but low position in Networked Readiness Index

5. [Note: What is the Networked Readiness Index?] • NRI / Networked Readiness Index: the degree of preparation of a nation or community to participate in and benefit from ICT developments ++ ++

6. It is going to be clear! But how to explain it? • GDP constantly increasing: yes • Growth rate: significant • ICT-fueled growth: very low • Public policies for ICT promotion: persistent – relatively well funded • It is important to explain (and, possibly, change trajectory!) How? • Beyond cultural explanations • Do not blame the European Commission… • There is an interesting literature providing explanations to Greek ICT-laggardness by concluding on a inadequacy of ICT-supporting public policies: the transfer of public policy rationales from the most developed EU countries is the principal cause for: • the inefficiency of Greek public ICT policies • the low technology profile of the high growth rate…

7. We have to recognize the modest objective of (core) EU ICT policy • EU ICT Policy Goals (according to P. Johnston, EC) • Industrial policy to consolidate the European ICT sector for a single market and as a globally-competitive private sector, rather than as public monopolies or ‘national champions’ • Consumer welfare policies to provide a wider range of more affordable communications services to all Europeans • Policies for sustained economic growth stimulating innovation across all the economy, including in the provision of public services • Plus (peripheral countries): ICT to support “cohesion” strategies • Implementation has been (my appreciation) • successful in: 1 and 2 • less successful in: 3 • Relatively successful in: 4 • Implementation in Greece: 1 (no industrial policy in this regard), 2 (it now gives results), 3 (no significant results), 4 (more satisfactory in terms of network infrastructures development)

8. Ok, these papers provide… an argument for euro-skepticism (this is the hype…) but they are still interesting! • Liagouras, Zambarloukos, Constantelou, 2004, The Long Road from Technology to Development…, DRUID Summer Conference • Avgerou, 2000, Recognizing Alternative Rationalities in the Deployment of Information Systems, EJISDC • Collins and Pontikakis, 2006, Innovation Systems in the European Periphery: the policy approaches of Ireland and Greece, Science and Public Policy • Pontikakis, Lin, Demirbas, 2006, History matters in Greece: The adoption of Internet-enabled computers by small and medium size entreprises, Information Economics and Policy • Liagouras, Zambarloukos, Constantelou, 2004, When Blueprints are not of Big Help: Impasses and Challenges of Technology Policy in Intermediate Economies, Working Paper

9. Back to the central question(s)… • Growth in Greece is modestly “modern” (modern growth: systematic application of science to economic ends?). Explain • ICT technology policies in Greece obtains weak results (disproportional to the volume of investments). Explain • Of course, EU peripherals countries are structurally different from core countries but they converge. Do we need “alternative policies” or better implementation strategies? Answer • The discussion is open! • iris-europe’s contribution (http://www.iris-europe.eu/ and http://www.atlantis-group.gr/projects/iris-e/) • Aid and accelerate the decision making process of local and regional authorities as far as regional development policies and efficient use of ICT are concerned: collect and analyze 100 case studies from 4 EU countries and provide a platform for comparative analysis and reciprocal learning • Twenty (20) case studies will be conducted in Greece: collect information on projects and practices of successful integration of ICT technologies in public organizations and private firms (illustrating goals and methods, main actors and relationships between them, concrete project achievements, theoretical implications etc.)

10. We may never come up with definitive answers • We are working through cases (limited approach) • Public Sector: almost done • Private Sector: we are going to start • We recognize structural distance of Greek economy from the “knowledge economy” ideal, as our colleagues do: • Weak competition • Dispersion of the industry structure (with many “isolated” SMEs) • Weak “collective dynamics” in industry organization • Significant presence of “non-increasing returns” service industries (get them in the “knowledge economy” world, through ICT, it is not only a Greek trouble) • Non particularly efficient business management structures, heritage from the past / resistance to change

11. Iro Nikiforou: 20 Greek cases on ICT adoption (iris-e project) – first conclusions (20 min)

12. ICT in the Greek public sector: implementation matters! (1) • Successful projects imply • User side: A well defined technology demand and an ability to monitor implementation • In practice, this happens only within elite public agencies (GRNET, GSIS) • Producer side: A project implementation strategy able to bring the new technology into the cognitive framework of its users…

13. ICT in the Greek public sector: implementation matters! (2) • Tips: A technology project • Needs a plan of organizational pre-reforms to implement early in the project life-cycle • In practice, technology is strategically used to impose reform (Trojan horse) • Requires careful design and implementation coherence • In practice, there is cacophony: requirements analysis, implementation and integration within the user-organization are loosely coordinated • Needs organizational stability • In practice, pro1ject managers and key-persons change many times, due to external to the project reasons • (most important) Requires to be designed through close interaction between implementors and users (ICT systems are much more complex artifacts than network infrastructures) • Know how to leverage the potential of communities of users and communities of practices

14. ICT in the Greek public sector: implementation matters! (3) • In brief, an ICT technology project needs a clear and executable design blueprint and a componentized budget (for organization pre-reforms, technical implementations, change management, marketing) • Interesting to know • Do Universities propose a coherent curriculum of ICT engineer? • ICT public projects get modest results. What is the reason for civil engineering public projects success? Anybody interested to look at that?

15. ICT in the private sector: (ongoing research) • Consumer technology goods diffuse quickly (as quickly as in the rest of the developed world) • Perfect examples: mobile phones, medical imaging services • Industries exposed to the competition adopt ICT technologies pushed by both the intensity of competition and their participation in global supply chains • Example: food industry

16. ICT in the private sector : a coordination failure problem (1) [a conceptual model borrowing from Arora et al., MIT Press] • First, separate things [US Department of Justice] • Market for technology (markets for goods with a strong “intellectual property” dimension): transactions for the use and diffusion of technology • Market for innovation (markets about a future product): transactions for the creation of new technology [Emilia] • [Note: Both terms, technology and innovation, refer to “useful” knowledge embodied in engineering artifacts] • Second, identify the nature of the markets for technology[please correct me if I am wrong] • Vertical: ICT technology in Greece is supplied within a two stages market • STAGE 1 To the end-users, by an industry segment of technology integrators, consultants and “service providers” (I call them, technology suppliers, examples: Singular-Logic, Mobile Operators, PLANET) • STAGE 2 Technology integrators themselves are sourced by an upstream sector of technology producers (mostly multinationals – few local specialized technology producers / SMEs)

17. ICT in the private sector : a coordination failure problem (2) • Focus at STAGE 1 • It works well when it is called to satisfy a demand with high “breadth dimension” (ICT consumer goods) • It is problematic when it is to serve a demand with “depth dimension” (ICT in government and business) • Improve the way market STAGE 1 works: it can promote the diffusion of existing ICT technology • How to improve market coordination: we need a new model of division • Incentives for consolidation and suppliers specialization • Open technology supplies industry to EU competition (mergers) • Today [Tsakanikas]: a large industrial base, obviously inefficient, that points to a lack of effective market selection mechanisms • Demand-side “collective institutions” [Marianna]

18. Summary • Typical policy initiatives to improve ICT adoption: • ICT policy • Networked Learning • Social ICT Capital • Information diffusion about ICT opportunities • Networked economy infrastructures • Should add: • Project implementation blueprint for public sector investments • More ICT engineers [properly formed as Caloghirou explains + educational focus on precision and effort] • Policies to improve coordination through markets (restructuring of ICT services industry) • Collective institutions to improve ITC users competencies • This is only a conceptual model. We need: • More empirical evidence: Comparisons between Greece, Portugal and Ireland (maybe Spain too) • Quantitative analysis: Vlachos [last speaker: e-business watch database] and Tsakanikas [how to measure market stage 1 efficiency?]

19. Thanks, enjoy the rest! • Thanassis Priftis: More ITC cases: How Local Governments adopt ICT… (10 min) • Petros Stefaneas: Digital Terrestrial TV – frame the development of a consumer industry (10 min) • PAUSE • Marianna Sigala: Coordinate ICT adoption in tourism through “collective institutions”… (20 min) • Ilias Vlachos: Profiles of demand for ICT goods (20 min) • Discussants: T. Karounos & T. Darmaros [express yourself at any time!] • 20 min discussion • Closing event: celebrate Stefaneas’ published book!

20. Annex

21. Ερωτήματα / 3 • Genika milwntas: empodia sto adoption ICT texnologiwn stous 3 autous tomeis kai kosth pou apaitountai? scalability / extensibility issues? • Genika milwmtas: Poio einai to ofelos (antagwnistiko pleonekthma) pou prosferoun ependuseis se ICT se autous tous tomeis (me paradeigmata endexomenws apo alles xwres)? • Ti politikes tha mporousan na bohthsoun thn epitaxynsh tou ICT adoption se autous tous 3 tomeis?