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Comments for Workshop on EEU Budget for 2009-2011 August 6, 2008

Comments for Workshop on EEU Budget for 2009-2011 August 6, 2008. Outline of Presentation. The Board’s Questions to Efficiency Vermont Efficiency Vermont’s Approach to the Board’s Questions Approach to Ramp-up Response Efficiency Vermont’s Ramp-up Response Rate of Ramp-up

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Comments for Workshop on EEU Budget for 2009-2011 August 6, 2008

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  1. Comments for Workshop on EEU Budget for 2009-2011August 6, 2008

  2. Outline of Presentation • The Board’s Questions to Efficiency Vermont • Efficiency Vermont’s Approach to the Board’s Questions • Approach to Ramp-up Response • Efficiency Vermont’s Ramp-up Response • Rate of Ramp-up • Potential Expansion Strategies • Potential Changes in Costs and Savings

  3. The Board’s Questions to EVT • Can EVT ramp up the delivery of energy efficiency services as quickly as CLF and VPIRG have proposed? • If so, what types of services would be increased or offered for the first time?

  4. Efficiency Vermont’s Approach to the Board’s Questions • We will seek to meet the Board’s objectives for the EEU with whatever budget level we are provided. • Our response is preliminary; we have not yet adequately considered all aspects of the proposed ramp-up, including the time necessary for: • Planning • Development • Capacity expansion (both internal and external)

  5. Our Approach to Ramp-up Response • We conducted rough estimate of potential costs and savings for 2011 at the major market level, including consideration of: • Trends in technology and market opportunity • Recent history and expected % changes in EVT cost / MWh • Potential to take target area strategies statewide

  6. Summary of Efficiency Vermont’s Response • While challenging, we believe it would be possible to increase spending on cost-effective energy efficiency by 2011 to a budget level commensurate with that proposed by CLF and VPIRG.

  7. Ramp-Up • To ramp up responsibly to the 2011 budget level proposed by CLF and VPIRG, we suggest a ramp-up path that would likely rise more slowly at the beginning: $85 M ? ? ? $30.75 M

  8. Other Ramp-up Issues • Consider ramp-up and ramp-down demands and effects on market partners and customers • To minimize market disruption, large ramp-ups should be sustained for several years; and if ramped down, at a gradual pace. • What planning assumptions would be made beyond 2011? • Would ramped-up levels be maintained?

  9. Potential Expansion Strategies

  10. Potential Expansion Strategies

  11. Supplemental and Back-up Strategies • Open solicitation for third-party / vendor proposals • Pay for customer energy reduction (similar to California 20/20) – possible tie-in to smart meters • Downsize strategies – (e.g., right-sizing equipment, smaller appliances, smaller homes) • Next generation, deep direct installation for residential and / or small business

  12. Potential Changes in Costs and Savings • With savings from CFLs dropping, an expected greater reliance on measures and strategies with higher costs, and more aggressive strategies, the levelized cost of efficiency will likely increase. It would still remain well below avoided supply costs. EVT Levelized Cost / kWh

  13. Potential Change in Levelized Cost and TRB / kWh by Major Market

  14. Potential Change in Spending by Major Market 2007 2011

  15. Planning for CFL Market Transformation • In 2007, retail CFLs accounted for: • 46% of first-year MWh • 42% of Summer Peak MW • 26% of lifetime MWh • 25% of TRB • 14% of costs

  16. Planning for CFL Market Transformation • EVT is collaborating in the DPS investigation of attribution and savings in the context of the rapidly changing CFL market to inform 2009-2011 planning • EVT’s interim planning for 2009-2011 assumes for Retail Efficient Products: • 25% reduction in savings per CFL in 2009 • 50% reduction in savings per CFL in 2010 • 75% reduction in savings per CFL in 2011

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