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PROSPECTS FOR CONTAINER SHIPPING AND PORTS IN THE ESCAP REGION

MPPM. PROSPECTS FOR CONTAINER SHIPPING AND PORTS IN THE ESCAP REGION. Port Expert Group Meeting APEC TPT-WG/20 4-5 March 2002, Manila. Water Transport. MPPM – to provide a regional planning context Shipping policy - to promote competitive services

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PROSPECTS FOR CONTAINER SHIPPING AND PORTS IN THE ESCAP REGION

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  1. MPPM PROSPECTS FOR CONTAINER SHIPPING AND PORTS IN THE ESCAP REGION Port Expert Group Meeting APEC TPT-WG/20 4-5 March 2002, Manila

  2. Water Transport • MPPM – to provide a regional planning context • Shipping policy - to promote competitive services • Cruise shipping – to explore new opportunities • Port commercialization/privatization – to enhance efficiency • IWT integration – to improve sustainability • Multimodal transport and logistics – to promote integration

  3. Maritime Policy Planning Model Integrated Computer Modules • Developed by the ESCAP secretariat • A set of computer modules covering trade, shipping and ports to provide projection of: • Trade flows and future shipping requirements • Port cargo throughputs and port infrastructure requirements

  4. MPPM Studies • Prospects for container shipping and port development • ASEAN (1992) • South Asia (1993) • East Asia (1994) • Intra-regional Container Shipping Study (1997) • Regional shipping and port development strategies under a changing maritime environment (2001)

  5. Three Modules of MPPM • Trade Module • Forecast cargo flows • Country to country and port to port matrixes • Liner Shipping Network Module • Assign the port-to-port cargo flows to shipping network • Shipping requirements and port throughputs • Port Strategic Planning Module • Assess port capacity/investment requirements

  6. MPPM Model Structure CIY Port Data O-D Data Port share Routes Service details Vessel description Port class TEU/ship-hour Input Trade Module Liner Shipping Network Module Port Strategic Planning Module Output Port-to-port cargo flows Fleet required Vessel calls at ports Port throughputs Port capacity required

  7. Trade Projection • Analysis of historical data • Time-series of import/export full container totals for countries • Forecast export/import totals • Simple regression function estimation • Explanatory variables: GDP • Produce port-to-port cargo flows

  8. Economic Growth Assumption LINK Average 1999-2004

  9. World Container Volumes (Full, O-D) 123 123 59 59.0

  10. Asian Container Trade World Total 59 m TEU (1999) 123 m TEU (2011) 6.3% Asia 6.8 13.1 5.3 12.9 5.7% 7.6% 7.6% N. America 12.5 30.1 Europe 5.1% 7.7% Asia 4.6 8.3 4.2 10.3

  11. Asian Liner Shipping Network JAPAN Dalian Qinhuangdao Tianjin Xingang Busan / Gwangyang Yantai Qingdao Lianyungang Kaohsiung Nanjing Shanghai Ningbo PHILIPPINES Hong Kong Fuzhou Xiamen Shantou Yantian Shekou Singapore Chiwan Huangpu Zhuhai THAILAND VIETNAM INDONESIA Mainline Connection Feeder Connection To North America and/or Europe MALAYSIA

  12. Liner Shipping Network • 400+ actual service routes to/from/within Asia (1999) • Service details (sequence of calling ports, service frequency) • Vessel description (how many ships of how big sizes) • What will the future shipping network look like?

  13. How big will ships be?

  14. Scenarios on shipping networks • Base network 2011 • Similar to existing shipping network • Bigger ships up to 12000 TEU but limited role: 8000 TEU or less in major E-W routes • Big ships network 2011 • 12000 TEU ships playing dominant role calling very limited number of super hub ports in E-W routes

  15. Required Number of Ships 3249 3,257 3,062 2,394 1,907 2001

  16. Asia-Europe (2011) Ship size distribution 2001

  17. Transpacific (2011) Ship size distribution 2001

  18. Trans-shipment (ESCAP)

  19. Container Port Throughput ESCAP Region

  20. Top 5 Container Ports in ESCAP (2011) (Million TEU)

  21. Container Berth Requirement

  22. Investment Requirements ESCAP Region

  23. Issues and Policy Implications • Difficult for developing countries to maintain a presence in shipping market • Deregulation and liberalization • Financing increased capital commitment • Prioritization of projects • Private sector participation • Improving port productivity • Intermodal integration

  24. Strengths of MPPM • Comprehensive view of the system • Regional perspectives • Coherent and internally consistent ‘forecasts’ • Every container assigned to a particular shipping service to be carried from one port to other

  25. Cargo Allocation in MPPM 1TEU 1TEU Hong Kong Laem Chabang Thailand Los Angeles USA Port Klang PTP Singapore Port A

  26. Limitations of MPPM • Simple trade projection • Limitations on port numbers & transshipment nodes • Lack of intermodal representation

  27. Plan to Upgrade/Expand the Model • 2002-2003 • Utilize contemporary modeling technologies • Cover the whole APEC region • Represent intermodal connection

  28. New APEC-wide Study • A new study could cover the whole APEC region • Cooperation of participating countries will be critical • Provide information and data • Feed-back • Enhance collaboration between APEC and ESCAP

  29. MPPM Thank you Port Expert Group Meeting APEC TPT-WG/20 4-5 March 2002, Manila

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