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Energy: A Global Challenge

Energy: A Global Challenge. # 15. Dr. William Fisher October 12, 2001.

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Energy: A Global Challenge

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  1. Energy: A Global Challenge # 15 Dr. William Fisher October 12, 2001 Produced by and for Hot Science - Cool Talks by the Environmental Science Institute. We request that the use of these materials include an acknowledgement of the presenter and Hot Science - Cool Talks by the Environmental Science Institute at UT Austin. We hope you find these materials educational and enjoyable.

  2. by Dr. William Fisher Energy:A Global Challenge

  3. World Energy, Gross Domestic Product, Population Trends

  4. World Primary Energy Consumption Nuclear 6.5 % (24.5 Quads) Biomass, Geothermal, Solar, Wind 0.6 % (2.5 Quads) Hydro 7.1 % (26.9 Quads) Petroleum 39.6 % (149.7 Quads) Natural Gas 22.3 % (84.4 Quads) Coal 23.2 % (87.5 Quads)

  5. Energy Units for Different Sources FUEL TYPESTANDARD MEASURE PETROLEUM 73.6 MMB/D (million barrels per day) NATURAL GAS82.7 TCF (trillion cubic feet) COAL 5013 MSTs (million short tons) HYDRO 2584 BKwh (billion kilowatthours) BIOMASS, GEOTHERMAL, SOLAR, WIND 196 BKwh (billion kilowatthours)

  6. Future Scenarios

  7. Energy Requirements of the 21st Century Shell Scenarios: • Sustained Growth - 25 Tboe • Dematerializtion - 15 Tboe Available Fossil Fuel Base: • Oil - 3 Tboe • Natural Gas - 4.3 Tboe • Coal - 23.5 Tboe (Tboe - Trillion barrels of oil)

  8. WORLDWIDE PRODUCTION OF OIL AND NATURAL GAS

  9. World Primary Energy Substitution

  10. World Primary Energy Substitution

  11. World Primary Energy Substitution

  12. World Primary Energy Substitution

  13. World Primary Energy Substitution

  14. World Primary Energy Substitution

  15. World Primary Energy Substitution

  16. World Primary Energy Substitution

  17. World Primary Energy Substitution

  18. THE RATIO OF HYDROGEN TO CARBON IN OUR FUELS IS CHANGING. • Fuels with more carbon release more carbon dioxide. • Fuels with more hydrogen burn more cleanly.

  19. Global Primary Energy Consumption

  20. 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Estimate of U.S. Oil Reserves and Future Needs Estimate of additional U.S. oil resources. Estimate of future U.S. oil needs. Barrels of Oil (in Billions) Estimate of the U.S. oil reserves. Amount of U.S oil reserves already used.

  21. Estimate of World Oil Reserves and Future Needs 4000 Estimate of world oil resources. 3500 3000 Estimate of world oil reserves. 2500 2000 Estimate of the world oil needs. Barrels of Oil (in Billions) 1500 Amount of oil that has already been used. 1000 Estimate of the U.S. oil needs. 500 0

  22. U.S. and World Natural Gas Account

  23. RECENT ESTIMATES OF ULTIMATE OIL RECOVERY FOR THE WORLD.

  24. The Symmetrical Life Cycle

  25. CHANGING VIEWS OF RESOURCE DEPLETION Resource addition rate cF

  26. CHANGING VIEWS OF RESOURCE DEPLETION Resource addition rate

  27. Offshore Production Platform

  28. SEISMIC IMAGE OF AN OIL FIELD

  29. Directional, Extended-Reach Drilling

  30. Mean of Oil Price Forecasts

  31. Natural Gas Resource Pyramid

  32. ESTIMATES OF REMAINING NATURAL GAS IN THE UNITED STATES (Several estimates for lower 48 only) Estimates adjusted for production since date of estimate Natural Gas (Tcf)

  33. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF ENERGY USE

  34. Average Global Surface Temperatures

  35. CO2 Concentrations

  36. Global Temperature and Solar Activity

  37. TEMPERATURE CYCLES OF THE RECENT GEOLOGIC PAST

  38. CARBON CONTENT (GtC) OF AVAILABLE FOSSIL FUEL RESOURCES

  39. World Energy Use Intensity

  40. Improvement in Motor Efficiency

  41. Improvement in Motor Efficiency

  42. Improvement in Motor Efficiency

  43. Improvement in Motor Efficiency

  44. Improvement in Motor Efficiency

  45. Improvement in Motor Efficiency

  46. Improvement in Motor Efficiency

  47. WORLD POPULATION PROJECTIONS

  48. Carbon Intensity of Global Energy Consumption

  49. Conclusions Many of the pessimistic predictions of resource availability have been wrong. We are currently moving toward plentiful and clean energy. We should not exhaust ourselves worrying about problems before they occur.

  50. Acknowledgements Thanks to: Environmental Science Institute Mayfield Fund of Geology Foundation Department of Geology Bureau of Economic Geology Jay Banner Gary Kocurek Deanna Combs

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