EUROPEAN COMMISSION

1. Complex World Event 8 April 2015 • EUROPEAN COMMISSION

2. SESAR in a global environment SESAR JOINT UNDERTAKING

3. Standardization • ICAO • ICAO ANC ICAO WORKING GROUPS • EUROCAE RTCA • ISO • OGC • SESAR • / • EUROPE • NextGen CPs

4. Trajectory Based Operations (TBO) • “Coordinate changes/constraints on a trajectory worldwide” TBO Trajectory Synchronization Constraint management & Constraint adherence Multi Actor Framework Balancing predictability versus flexibility

5. Trajectory Based Operations • As traffic increases • More and more flights • Are subject to multiple limiting factors • That may originate from various ATM components Trajectory prediction constraints constraints Collision avoidance Separation provision Arrival Management Time (to fly) to predicted trajectory part Inauguration Ceremony

6. The layered planning approach • Flows instead of trajectories Dynamic DCB Enhanced FUA • Milestone planning Complexity Management • Time uncertainty some minutes • Required granulaity and reliability of the • Trajectory Prediction for ATM function Tactical Planning • Accurate Executive Control Safety Nets • Required time-horizon • of trajectory prediction • 1 day • 1 sec • 2 mins • 3 hours • 16 mins • 10 secs • Predictability required from ATM function perspective • Flexibility required from AU perspective

7. Involves many actors • Data visualization • 4D trajectories • Uncertainty • Combine with MET, AIM, Flow • What IF scenario’s • Global actors • leading • Flight crew • Flight operations centre • Regional actors • contributing • Air traffic control • Level of involvement • [per operational stakeholder] • Local traffic manager & tactical planning Network manager • none • Time-horizon of • the intended trajectory • 1 day • 1 sec • 2 mins • 3 hours • 16 mins • 10 secs

8. How to deal with residual uncertainty? Can Agent Based Modeling be used to support CDM? • Weather (2.2) • huge • Turn around processes (2.3) • big • Variations in cockpit procedures (2.4) • medium • Navigational inaccuracy (2.5) • Impact on trajectory changes • [probability x magnitude] • small • ATM intervention (2.6) • Time-horizon between uncertainty cause and actual impact on flight • 1 sec • 2 mins • 3 hours • Take-off • 16 mins • 10 secs

9. Making a plan, managing changes • Glue between these ATM components • synchronizing the view of the trajectory • between different actors • ensuring consistency between constraints • that originate from the various ATM components • Stability and consistency • of the combination of the solutions • efficiently converging coordination process • to find this stable and consistent combination Resilience management Inauguration Ceremony

10. Integrating the airline perspective How to access confidential information? Optimization theory Need for an independent view • What are the interdependencies? • What is optimal in the sum of the networks? • How to find/agree the optimum? • How to implement it? Airline network ATM network

11. How far can we push the conflict horizon? • When unpredictability grows to the order of magnitude of the applicable separation criteria there is no point in further de-conflicting individual trajectories. Manage Uncertainty • Trajectory prediction • = • Coordinated trajectory intention ATC clearance conflict horizon Time (to fly) to predicted trajectory part

12. Hypothesis • Continuous corrections of the multi-aircraft system in its entirety are required to keep the system stable and safe. • This does not by definition lead to a conflict between predictability and flexibility. • For most purposes the only relevant element of predictability is milestone planning with tolerance levels tailored to a specific ATM function. • Changes are within Tolerance • Change can be compensated by AC • Need to re-plan trajectories Constraint 2 (for separation or planning purposes) • Aircraft intent • EPP Constraint 1 (for separation or planning purposes) • Alternative trajectories that would have complied with constraints

13. Milestone planning Congested runway Departure time Though the final RTA window does not match the originally planned trajectory, it does serve its purpose for arrival management Arrival time Time Initial RTA tolerance Destination Optimize interval ensuring fluctuations to average out Compliant trajectories Congested sector Final fine-tuned RTA tolerance Planned trajectory Flight distance Optimise moment to fine tune target time at Fix: Not too early, not too late Origin

14. High level guidance • Need a mechanism that ensure consistency between constraints • Promote increased predictability whilst retaining a level of flexibility that allows operators to fly as closely as possible to their business need. • The tolerance range of any constraint should be commensurate with the ATM function it serves • The timing for setting a constraint should be delayed as late as possible commensurate with the ATM function it serves.

15. Example: Trajectory prediction • Data Science • Who needs what • For what purpose • With what accuracy • What update rate? Inauguration Ceremony

16. Example: Trajectory prediction • Data Science • Who needs what • For what purpose • With what accuracy • What update rate? Inauguration Ceremony

17. TBO needs SWIM, SWIM needs trust YEARS 6 MONTHS DAYS HOURS MINUTES ATM PLANNING PHASES EXECUTION LONG TERM MID TERM TRAJECTORY STATUS PRE-NEGOTIATION NEGOTIATION AGREED INTENT FINE TUNING TRAJECTORY COORDINATOR AIRSPACE USER NETWORK MANAGEMENT ATC • Easy access to information • Multiple ATM stakeholders • Offer and consume ATM information from each other • Easy to connect • Provider and consumers build on Trust • All involved parties can be trusted (authorized entities only) • Exchange mechanism can be trusted (secured, reliable, on-time) • No abuse of information (adequate access control) • Cost reduction in ATM evolution • Cost proportional to required performance level • Future changes shall be faster and cheaper New security mechanisms

18. Security Framework More information exchanges between stakeholders Despite protective cyber security measure Need to be resilient against an attack How to design a system of systems that is resilient against a cyber attack? This requires design principles for resilience engineering Resilience Engineering

19. Exploratory research >> IR • SESAR I • Industrial Research • SESAR 2020 • Industrial Research • SESAR I • Exploratory Research • SESAR 2020 • Exploratory Research • Deployment Phase • Definition phase • Create European ATM Master Plan • 2013-25 • 2009-16

20. For more information on TBO see: http://www.sesarju.eu/newsroom/brochures-publications/trajectory-based-operations-tbo-concepts