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Title: IMPROVING METHOD FOR STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS OF DAILY RUNOFF SERIES Authors:

Title: IMPROVING METHOD FOR STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS OF DAILY RUNOFF SERIES Authors: Zoran M. Radic*, Vladislava Mihailovic** *Faculty of Civil Engineering University of Belgrade, Serbia, zradic@grf.bg.ac.rs **Faculty of Forestry University of Belgrade, Serbia, vmihailovic@beotel.net.

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Title: IMPROVING METHOD FOR STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS OF DAILY RUNOFF SERIES Authors:

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  1. Title: IMPROVING METHOD FOR STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS OF DAILY RUNOFF SERIES Authors: Zoran M. Radic*, Vladislava Mihailovic** *Faculty of Civil Engineering University of Belgrade, Serbia, zradic@grf.bg.ac.rs **Faculty of Forestry University of Belgrade, Serbia, vmihailovic@beotel.net

  2. Introduction This paper is a continuation of the research presented by the same authors in BALWOISE 2006 papers: 1. Structure of Daily Hydrologic Series in Serbia and Northern Mediterranean 2. Development of Drought Monitoring System for Serbia

  3. DAILY DATA REFERENCE PERIOD 1961-1990 DAILY DATA STATISTICAL FUNCTIONS SERIES MODELING of PERIODICAL FUNCTIONS of STATISTICAL PARAMETERS RCP diagrams MRD&LMR diagrams CANDIDATE MARG. DISTRIBUTIONS THE BEST MARG. DISTRIBUTION Methodology DATA PREPARATION: DATA MODELING: APPLICATIONS: PPCC&rRMSE Tests DROUGHTS STUDIES FLOODS STUDIES CATCH.MOISTURE STATE STUDY HYDROLOGICAL REGIME STUDY

  4. The main goal of this paper is to resolve, at the regional level, THE QUESTION OF THE SELECTIONOF APPROPRIATEPROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION TYPE FOR MARGINAL DISTRIBUTIONS OF DAILY FLOWS IN SERBIA - marked in red at the previous slide -

  5. The selection of the most acceptable probability distribution type has two stages: 1. PRELIMINARY SELECTION of DISTRIBUTION CANDIDATES Based on: (A) Conventional moment ratio diagram (MRD), and (B) L-moment ratio diagram (LMR) 2. FINAL CHOICE of MARGINAL DISTRIBUTIONS TYPE Based on: (A) Goodness of fit analysis i.e. distribution candidates testing and ranking using probability plot correlation coefficient (PPCC) and relative root mean square error (rRMSE) statistics (B) Regional study of distribution candidates, and (C) Physical interpretations of ”best-distributions” i.e. analysis of the distribution periodical lower/upper boundary

  6. Data Study is based on data from 33 representative profiles in Serbia and for the period till 2006. Length of data: 47- 59 years Catchments area: 104 - 252.000 km2 - Reference period: 1961-1990

  7. Moment ratio diagram for station No. 21, for estimated date series (left side) and series estimated from logarithms of daily runoff (right side). Results PRELIMINARY SELECTION of DISTRIBUTION CANDIDATES According to MRD (1=Cs2 vs 2=Ck ): - Bobée conventional MRD diagram clearly identified LP3 distribution • According to LMR: • - L-moments diagram (L-Cs vs L-Ck) identified several candidates: • LN3, GEV, LP3 and GPA distribution L-moment ratio diagram for station No. 21, for estimated date series (left side) and series estimated from logarithms of daily runoff (right side).

  8. Results 2.DISCRIMINATION AMONG COMPETING DISTRIBUTIONS AND PARAMETER-ESTIMATION PROCEDURES: According to PPCC test : - The best was LN3-STLB, then LP3-Lmom and LP3-MOM * Each number in the table represents a number of stations (of all 33) for which a certain distribution is ranked to the first, second, etc. place.

  9. According to rRMSE statistics: • - LP3 was the best by both methods Results 2.DISCRIMINATION AMONG COMPETING DISTRIBUTIONS AND PARAMETER-ESTIMATION PROCEDURES: * Each number in the table represents a number of stations (of all 33) for which a certain distribution is ranked to the first, second, etc. place.

  10. Results 3.DISCRIMINATION BETWEEN DISTRIBUTION CANDIDATES ACCORDING TO THE REGIONAL APPLICABILITY IN SERBIA AND THE NATURE OF THE MODELED PHYSICAL PROCESS - GEV and LN3 models have negative lower boundary - GEV and LN3 models produced negative lower quantiles during certain periods of the year (29/33 stations for GEV and 18/33 for LN3) - GPA distribution has an upper boundary close to, or lower than estimated maxima line (upper quintiles were compressed downwards and were even lower than series of daily maxima)

  11. Conclusions FINAL MARGINAL DISTRIBUTIONS SELECTION For Serbia LP3 distribution should be recommended as reference model. Regarding the fact that selected stations cover: various sizes of catchment areas (104 km2 to 251,593 km2), five international rivers (Danube, Sava, Tisa, Drina, Timok) and four types of hydrological regimes, it is most probable that LP3 distribution should be recommendedeven on the larger regional level. 3. Last conclusion was already proved for some Mediterrannean catchments (Mihailović & Radić, 2006).

  12. Quantile time functions, derived on the base of LP3 marginal distributions for each date in the year, and observed hydrograph for hydrological year 1998-99 (R. Velika Morava, st. “Ljubičevski Most”)

  13. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

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