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Stakeholder Workshop

Stakeholder Workshop. July 22, 2003. Model Objectives. Forecast ADT on the Rural State Highway System Autos & Trucks Arterial System Complement, But Not Compete With, 9 MPO Models Forecast traffic to, from and thru MPOs, but not within. Why Practice?.

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Stakeholder Workshop

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  1. Stakeholder Workshop July 22, 2003

  2. Model Objectives • Forecast ADT on the Rural State Highway System • Autos & Trucks • Arterial System • Complement, But Not Compete With, 9 MPO Models • Forecast traffic to, from and thru MPOs, but not within.

  3. Why Practice? • Traffic forecasts affect every aspect of a State DOT’s core business activities: • planning & finance, programming, design, construction & maintenance • A useful, cost-effective tool • system, corridor, project level data for evaluating needs & alternatives • reliable & timely forecasts • consistent methodology

  4. OK, I have my duck taped. Now how about a statewide model? Tom Dear Office of Homeland Security:

  5. Urban Models Federal mandate, 40+ years R&D Predictable travel behavior, specialized tools. Attractive career paths for modelers. Why Not? Statewide Models • No federal mandate, little R&D or data • Travel behavior less predictable, modeling tools less useful. • Limited career paths for DOT modelers.

  6. Available Demographic Data • 1990 & 2000 Census Geography & Data • Public Use Microdata Samples (PUMS) • 1997 Economic Census • Woods & Poole Economic, Demographic Data • Claritas Demographic & Lifestyle Data • D&B Employment Data • Regional Demographic Data

  7. Available Network Data • National Highway Planning Network (NHPN) • NORTAD 1998 Database • 2000 National Transportation Atlas Database (NTAD) • FHWA’s National HPMS Data • GDT National Traffic Count Data • KyTC Highway Information System (HIS)

  8. Available Travel Data • 1990, 2000 CTPP • American Travel Survey (ATS), National Personal Transportation Survey (NPTS), National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) • Reebie Commodity Flow Data • Commodity Flow Survey • Vehicle Inventory & Use Survey • MPO Trip Generation, Distribution, Mode Choice & External Survey Data

  9. Statewide Travel Models • Mark ByramOhio • Vince Bernardin & Steve SmithIndiana • Paul HershkowitzMissouri, Michigan • Tom CooneyKentucky, Wisconsin, South Carolina, Puerto Rico, Texas, Louisiana, Virginia, Mississippi

  10. Statewide Travel Models • Mark ByramOhio • Vince Bernardin & Steve SmithIndiana • Paul HershkowitzMissouri, Michigan • Tom CooneyKentucky, Wisconsin, South Carolina, Puerto Rico, Texas, Louisiana, Virginia, Mississippi

  11. Key Features • Macro-Micro Modeling Framework • Preservation of linkages to KYTC HIS • Use of ATS, NPTS & NHTS For Travel Market Segmentation • Activity Based Zone Structure • Claritas Lifestyle Clusters For Trip Household Trip Generation • Reebie Data for Heavy Truck Flows

  12. Mess Mess

  13. Route System:

  14. Internal Zones:

  15. Eliminating false intersections along limited-access facilities:

  16. M.P. 0.601 – M.P. 0.826 M.P. 0.828 – M.P. 1.479 Fixing milepost gaps:

  17. Adding missing links:

  18. External Network:

  19. External Zones:

  20. Passenger Model • Modes • Network and zone systems • Trip generation • Trip distribution • Mode choice • Assignment

  21. Freight Model • Modes • Network and zone systems • Trip generation • Trip distribution • Mode choice • Assignment

  22. Calibration & Validation • FHWA’s “Calibrating and Adjustment of System Planning Models” (NCHRP 365) • TMIP “Model Validation and Reasonableness Checking Manual”

  23. Model Management Systems • Input Data • Modeling Procedures • Output Data

  24. KYSTM Brainstorming SessionPriority Topics • Goal Statement? • Model users, uses and outputs • Who should use info from model? • What information do they want/need? • How should they get the information? • Data resources?

  25. KYSTM Brainstorming SessionPriority Topics • Passenger modeling procedures • Freight modeling procedures • Calibration/Validation criteria, standards • Data/Model management procedures

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