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John C. Felmy Chief Economist American Petroleum Institute Felmyj@api

John C. Felmy Chief Economist American Petroleum Institute Felmyj@api.org. Coal. 26%. Forecast of U.S. Energy Growth. 31% Growth. (1.1%/yr.). 2030 Outlook. 2005 Actual. (100 quads). (131 quads). Nuclear. Nuclear. 8%. 7%. Coal. Oil. 23%. Oil. 40%. 40%. Gas. 23%. 6%. Gas.

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John C. Felmy Chief Economist American Petroleum Institute Felmyj@api

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  1. John C. FelmyChief Economist American Petroleum Institute Felmyj@api.org

  2. Coal 26% Forecast of U.S. Energy Growth 31% Growth (1.1%/yr.) 2030 Outlook 2005 Actual (100 quads) (131 quads) Nuclear Nuclear 8% 7% Coal Oil 23% Oil 40% 40% Gas 23% 6% Gas 7% 21% Renewables Renewables Source: EIA, AEO2007 2

  3. Future U.S. Energy Demand • The U.S. will consume 28 percent more oil and 19 percent more natural gas in 2030 than in 2005. History Projections Petroleum Coal quadrillion Btu Natural Gas Nuclear Nonhydro renewables Hydropower 3 Source: EIA, AEO 2007

  4. 4 EIA, AEO 2007

  5. Future Global Energy Demand • Global energy demand will increase by more than 50 percent between now and 2030. Source: IEA 5

  6. Future U.S. Energy Demand • The U.S. will consume more energy even with efficiency improvements Source: US DOE 6

  7. U.S. Supplies of Crude and Products Other countries include: United Kingdom, Kuwait, Ecuador, Brazil, Norway, Korea-South, Aruba, Trinidad and Tobago, Columbia, Libya, Argentina, Chad, Germany, Equatorial Guinea, France, Gabon, Belgium, Sweden, Indonesia, Finland, Vietnam, Estonia, Yemen, Brunei, Italy, Lithuania, Cameroon, Malaysia, Latvia, Portugal, China, Netherlands, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Denmark, India, and Bahrain. EIA, Petroleum Supply Monthly, May 2007 7

  8. Non-IOC IOC World’s largest oil companies based on liquid reserves 8 Source: Oil & Gas Journal

  9. Who owns “Big Oil”? (Holdings of oil stocks, 2004) 9

  10. Capital Spending Source: Oil and Gas Journal, April 2, 2007 10

  11. U.S. Crude Oil Resources(undiscovered technically recoverable federal resources) Lower 48, onshore 7 Bbl Lower 48, onshore 7 Bbl Pacific offshore 10.5 Bbl Atlantic offshore 3.8 Bbl Atlantic offshore 3.8 Bbl Alaska onshore 18 Bbl Alaska offshore 26.6 Bbl Gulf offshore/deepwater 44.9 Bbl 112 billion barrels is enough oil to power over 60 million cars for 60 years AND heat over 25 million homes for 60 years. 11 Source: MMS, USGS, and API Calculations

  12. U.S. Natural Gas Resources(undiscovered technically recoverable federal resources) Lower 48, onshore 167 Tcf Pacific offshore 18.3 Tcf Atlantic offshore 37 Tcf Alaska onshore69 Tcf Alaska offshore 132 Tcf Gulf offshore 232.5 Tcf 656 trillion cubic feet is enough natural gas to heat 60 million homes for 160 years. 12 Source: MMS, USGS, and API Calculations

  13. Number of refineries declines but capacity expands Source: DOE 13

  14. Environmental Expenditures since 1990 Source: API Statistics

  15. Highway and Non-road Diesel Timelines * 2006: Refinery – June 1; Terminal – September 1; Retail – October 15 15

  16. Technology – Our Industry’s Investments (2000-2005) $135 Billion $98 billion (73%) $89 billion (66%) By Technology By Investor $32 billion (23%) $31 billion (23%) $15 billion (11%) $5 billion (4%) Source: IER and CEE Oil & Gas Companies Other Private Federal Government Frontier Hydrocarbons EndUse Non Hydrocarbons 16

  17. Leading emerging energy investments by U.S. firms (2000-2005) 17

  18. U.S. Corn Use 2006-2007 Source: USDA 18

  19. Ethanol in Brazil Fuel Demand (MBD) Brazilian Ethanol (Sugar Cane Derived) - Ethanol meets 45% of Brazil’s Gasoline Demand - Lowest ethanol production costs in the world - Climate, Geography, Labor costs conducive to sugar production - Brazilian model not applicable to US in terms of scale/cost - U.S. Tariff to imported ethanol is $0.54/gallon Gasoline Ethanol 19

  20. Our Priorities • Efficiency – improve our own and encourage efficiency in other industries and among consumers. • Technology – increase investments in and use of advanced energy technologies to develop all sources of energy cleanly and responsibly. • Diversity – increase access to oil and natural gas supplies both here at home and around the world. 20

  21. Energy Policy Perspectives • Encourage energy efficiency • Encourage investment in long-term energy initiatives and advanced technologies. • Reduce barriers to increasing domestic supplies • Rely on market forces to allocate products. • Refrain from new taxes that make it more expensive to develop our domestic supplies. • Support our need to participate actively in global energy markets rather than isolate the U.S. 21

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