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Influence of precipitation on earthquakes in Central USA

Influence of precipitation on earthquakes in Central USA. EAS 4480 Thibault de La Poix de Freminville. Region of study. Mississippi river between Missouri and Tennessee. Context. Why this region? Central USA: tectonically stable zone

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Influence of precipitation on earthquakes in Central USA

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  1. Influence of precipitation on earthquakes in Central USA EAS 4480 Thibault de La Poix de Freminville

  2. Region of study • Mississippi river between Missouri and Tennessee 'Influence of precipitation on earthquakes' EAS 4480 Thibault de Freminville

  3. Context • Why this region? • Central USA: tectonically stable zone • But number of earthquakes per year varies by several order of magnitudes • Variation of precipitation influences the groundflow of Mississippi river and a big amount of water can affect the local crust • What are we looking for? • Meteorological forcing on the amount of earthquakes • Correlation between the amount of precipitation and the number of earthquakes 'Influence of precipitation on earthquakes' EAS 4480 Thibault de Freminville

  4. Data used in the analysis • FromJanuary 1977 to december 1999 Monthlyamount of precipitation Number of earthquake per month0.2<Magnitude<4.86770 events 'Influence of precipitation on earthquakes' EAS 4480 Thibault de Freminville

  5. Variation per year Good correlationwith somehistoricalevents:e.g. Great flood of 1993 'Influence of precipitation on earthquakes' EAS 4480 Thibault de Freminville

  6. Analysis of distributions For Earthquake:Not uniformly distributed Skewness=0.9640Kurtosis=3.5599 For precipitation:Not uniformly distributed (95% confidence interval)Skewness=1.0813Kurtosis=4.6542 'Influence of precipitation on earthquakes' EAS 4480 Thibault de Freminville

  7. Periodograms 3-5 1.1 0.8 0.5 1.9 0.5 1.9 1.1 0.8 3-5 'Influence of precipitation on earthquakes' EAS 4480 Thibault de Freminville

  8. Cross-spectral analysis 1-1.2 0.5 2-3 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.5 0.7 1 1.5-2.5 'Influence of precipitation on earthquakes' EAS 4480 Thibault de Freminville

  9. Conclusion • Possible explanation of the relationship: • Infiltration of water in an already fractured and permeable crust along Mississippi River • Delays: • Up to 6 months • Reasonable with diffusivity of water along depth for few kilometers 'Influence of precipitation on earthquakes' EAS 4480 Thibault de Freminville

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