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Human history has been marked by well-known disasters of unbelievable proportions .

Human history has been marked by well-known disasters of unbelievable proportions. Black Plague: 40 Million. World War I: 20 Million. World War II: 40 Million. 50 Million. 1918 Pandemic Influenza. Killed more than WWI Ended the war Killed up to 20% of those infected (2.5% in the US)

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Human history has been marked by well-known disasters of unbelievable proportions .

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  1. Human history has been marked by well-known disasters of unbelievable proportions.

  2. Black Plague: 40 Million

  3. World War I: 20 Million

  4. World War II: 40 Million

  5. 50 Million

  6. 1918 Pandemic Influenza • Killed more than WWI • Ended the war • Killed up to 20% of those infected (2.5% in the US) • Compared to 0.1% for seasonal flu • No History Lesson Today

  7. Bird Flu • Not that again… • New warning every year…

  8. Why you should care • 1918-like pan flu like will kill at least 60 million people • Hardest hit will be college-aged people • US/Whitman has no real plan • It WILL happen • You need a plan

  9. Your Age is the Worst • Most sickness kills the old and the very young • Pandemic Influenza kills the healthiest and strongest people • Currently bird flu kills 50% of infected…all young and healthy

  10. Cytokine Storm • Immune System fights infection, healthier=stronger • Pan Flu: response is too strong • Shred lung tissue • Burst alveoli (sacs to get O2) • Lungs fill with blood and other fluids • Cannot inhale or acquire oxygen • Turn blue, pass out • Drown in your own fluids • The healthier you are, the worse

  11. US Cannot be Prepared • We run emergency rooms at capacity today, we have no surge capacity • One way to survive cytokine storm • Ventilator • 100,000 ventilators in the US • At least 5% will need them • Enough for 0.6% of those who need them • No ventilator? • Death • Lasting neurological disorders

  12. No Infrastructure • Interstate travel will be shut down (DOH plan) • Ports will be shut down • That means: • No food delivery • 1.5 day stock at stores • No imports • No flights • Crashing economy

  13. Absenteeism • Up to 50% of people will not go to work due to sickness, care or fear • No electricity • No water • No internet • No phone • No medical staff • No clean laundry • No infectious material disposal

  14. No Drugs to Help • Antiviral have minimal, if any, effect • Bird flu already shows resistance • Pan flus evolve resistance very fast • Even if they work, there will be enough for 10%, tops • We’re in essentially the same position as 1918

  15. Time • Contagious for 3-5 days before symptoms • Modern travel means it will spread fast • Most likely port of entry? • Sea-Tac, LA or Vancouver (Near us)

  16. Whitman’s Plan? • Right now? • Limit liability • Send students home • Lessons from 1918: travel=worst option • Does that help you? • How will you get home? • Where will you go? • What will you do?

  17. You Need a Plan • Doesn’t need to be complicated • Get somewhere safe fast • Isolation • The ONLY method proved effective in 1918 • Have a supply of food and water

  18. Little to no disagreement in the medical community • Comes in regular intervals, we’re overdue for 1918-style • We’re more vulnerable than ever • World is unprepared, you can’t expect help from anyone • You need a simple get-safe plan

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