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Learn how to determine the total capital needed for retirement investments and estimate living expenses. Understand the impact of inflation and tax multipliers on your retirement plan.
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EGR 403 Introduction to Retirement Planning • Part I - Basic Approach • Part II - Determine Capital to Invest • Part III - Saving Strategy • Part IV - Investment Strategy Click here for streaming audio to accompany presentation Dr. Phillip R. Rosenkrantz IME Department, Cal Poly Pomona EGR 403 Retirement Planning - Part II
Part II - Determine Total Capital to Invest • Estimate Living Expenses • Determine rate of growth needed on your retirement capital to meet your goal • Determine Capital needed to invest EGR 403 Retirement Planning - Part II
Determine Retirement Living Expenses • Estimate living expenses • Use current lifestyle and expenses • Adjust for future plans and goals • Include annual and semi-annual expenses • Consider paying off your house • Adjust for inflation by multiplying by (F/P, i%, n) where: • i = inflation rate and • n = years to retirement • Multiply by Tax Multiplier EGR 403 Retirement Planning - Part II
Tax Multiplier • Non-tax income Living Expenses • $40,000 or less (1.10) • $60,000 or less (1.15) • $80,000 or less (1.20) • $100,000 or less (1.25) • Above $100,000 (1.30) • Add 0.05 if you have income from pension • Add 0.10 if you have part-time work income EGR 403 Retirement Planning - Part II
Personal Inflation • Estimate inflation and increases/decreases in expenses over the course of retirement. • 3% - 3.5% is a reasonable historical average for inflation. • Adjust up or down based on your increases, decreases, or beliefs about inflation (e.g., in energy costs, food costs, etc.) EGR 403 Retirement Planning - Part II
Example • You estimate you will need $100,000 (accounting for inflation) to live when you retire and you will not have a pension: • $100,000 x 1.25 = $125,000 • If part of the $100,000 will come from a pension, more will be taxable: • $100,000 x 1.30 = $130,000 EGR 403 Retirement Planning - Part II
Why living off of investments results in lower tax liability • Suppose you own ten investments worth $50,000 each for a total of $500,000 • They all go up 10% in value over the course of the year to a value of $55,000 each (total $550,000). You made $50,000!! • You sell one of the investments to live on. Your taxable gain was only $55,000 - 50,000 = $5,000 EGR 403 Retirement Planning - Part II
Determine Total Investment Return • Total Investment Return = Return on capital invested + Inflation Adjustment. Therefore Return on Capital Invested = Total Investment Return - Inflation • Example 1: Suppose you expect 3% inflation and also expect to get 8% on your investment return. Then you would figure 5% return on your capital (assets) invested. • Example 2: You expect 2% inflation and expect to get 11% on your investment return: Now you need to use 9% to determine your assets needed. EGR 403 Retirement Planning - Part II
Determine Total Investment Assets Needed • Now divide your estimated living allowance by the return on capital invested to estimate Total Investment Assets (recall: P = A / i) • Example 1: $125,000 is your living allowance. You figure 5% return on assets: $125,000 / (0.08 - 0.03) = $125,000 / 0.05 = $2,500,000 • Example 2: Same as above, but with 9% return: $125,000 / (0.11 - 0.02) = $125,000 / 0.09 = $1,388,889 EGR 403 Retirement Planning - Part II
In other words... • If you expect to get 8% return on your retirement investments and expect a 3% inflation rate, you need $2,500,000 in assets invested to maintain your lifestyle. • If you expect to get 11% return and only expect 2% inflation, then you need much less: $1,388,889. EGR 403 Retirement Planning - Part II