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Orange Traditionalists or Orange Skeptics?: the complex social base of Pro-Agreement Unionism

Orange Traditionalists or Orange Skeptics?: the complex social base of Pro-Agreement Unionism. Main Research Questions. What is the social profile of the UUC and how does this differ from that of the Orange Order and the Unionist community as a whole

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Orange Traditionalists or Orange Skeptics?: the complex social base of Pro-Agreement Unionism

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  1. Orange Traditionalists or Orange Skeptics?: the complex social base of Pro-Agreement Unionism

  2. Main Research Questions • What is the social profile of the UUC and how does this differ from that of the Orange Order and the Unionist community as a whole • Which factors best predict support for the Good Friday Agreement within the UUC? • What are the characteristics of pro-UUP constituencies, 1993-2001[time permitting]

  3. UUC Social Profile: Previous Survey Research • Late 2000 Survey of UUC (Tonge & Evans 2001; 2002). 1/3 response rate • Social Profile in terms of age, education, gender, income, occupation, county of residence • Showed that roughly half the UUC were Orange members

  4. Research Strategy • We add contextual factors to the analysis • Party List (gender, title, postcode, section) • Strategists assign vote (pro/anti-GFA) • MOSAIC classifications assigned to party members • NI MOSAIC score 1-27 (status), 30-36 (rural) • MOSAIC group and score used in multi-level and fixed-effects logistic regressions

  5. The Social Profile of the UUC and Orange Order by MOSAIC Classification (99% sample) % Top 12 Rural 8 Bottom 7 Nonrural Top 12 Nonrural Bottom 7 N Freemason officebearers 67.8% 15.5% 8.0% 80.2% 9.4% 766 Orange bloc UUC delegates 45.7% 36.2% 12.4% 71.6% 19.4% 105 UUC delegates total 44.3% 35.9% 8.4% 69.0% 13.1% 879 Grand Orange Lodge officebearers 34.7% 44.4% 9.7% 62.5% 17.5% 144 Northern Ireland population average 32.5% 18.1% 22.9% 39.6% 27.9% 1.6m Orange Order (lodge) officebearers 32.4% 43.9% 12.4% 57.7% 22.1% 1429

  6. Occupation: Orange Order versus Orange UUC Delegates

  7. Age: Orange Order Leadership vs. the Orange UUC • 48% of Orange officebearers are under 40 while just a quarter of Orange UUC members are under 45 • 29% of Orange officebearers over 50, while 66% of UUC Orange members were over 55

  8. Findings: Social Profile • Major status difference between Orange leadership/membership and Orange UUC delegates • UUC profile is elderly and elite • Explains why Protestant alienation from the UUP may be greater than from the Orange • Explains why many Orange leaders and a majority of the membership wish to break the link with the UUC while Orange UUC delegates do not

  9. GFA Voting Dynamics: Previous Survey Research • Orange Order membership and age were clearly important (p < .001) • Much unexplained: R2 = .1 predicting 1998 vote and .03 in predicting 'Vote Today' • Concluded that division lay between 'Orange skeptics' and 'rational civics'

  10. Support for the Agreement by UUP Constituency Association, c. 2002

  11. UUC Constituency Profile: Rural

  12. UUC Constituency Profile: Status

  13. Orange/Non-Orange Differential in Support for the Agreement

  14. Differences in Stance within the Orange UUC

  15. Findings: Individual • Orange and MLA status are the most important individual characteristics • Rural, Gender, Title, Education and Status unimportant • Age may be important

  16. Findings: Contextual • Contextual factors explain most of the variance (party section, geography of residence) • Sectional splits and Geographic splits within the Orange Order are critical • Big difference between UUC delegates who happen to be Orange and those who represent the Orange

  17. Conclusion • Implications of breaking UUC-Orange link • 'Orange skeptics' vs. 'rational civics' idea needs to be contextualised to official Orangeism - esp. in Belfast & Antrim • Importance of 'traditional' vs 'modern' divide (i.e. West Bann Orangemen, respectable working-class constituencies)

  18. UUP share of Protestant vote at District Council level

  19. Church of Ireland % of Protestants, 1991 (by DC)

  20. Orange Order Lodges & Density (southern counties) 1991

  21. Determinants of UUP Constituencies, 1993-2001 (by z score)

  22. Non-Orange Skeptics: Protestant Working-Class Area, Co. Armagh

  23. Orange Skeptics & Liberal Civics (East Belfast)

  24. Traditionalists (Orange & Other), Co. Tyrone

  25. END http://www.kpdata.com/epk/index.html (Follow link 1)

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