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Implications for food security

Implications for food security. Presented by Johann Bell. Authors.

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Implications for food security

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  1. Implications for foodsecurity Presented by Johann Bell

  2. Authors This presentation is based on Chapter 12 ‘Implications of climate change for contributions by fisheries and aquaculture to Pacific Island economies and communities’ in the book Vulnerability of Tropical Pacific Fisheries and Aquaculture to Climate Change, edited by JD Bell, JE Johnson and AJ Hobday and published by SPC in 2011. The authors of Chapter 12 are: Johann D Bell, Chris Reid, Michael J Batty, Edward H Allison, Patrick Lehodey, Len Rodwell, Timothy D Pickering, Robert Gillett, Johanna E Johnson, Alistair J Hobday and Andreas Demmke

  3. Outline • Importance of coastal fisheries for food security • Factors affecting availability of fish for food • Differences in reef area among countries and territories • Population growth! • Projected changes in coastal fisheries • Implications for food security • Relative importance of population growth and climate change

  4. How much fish do we eat? • Fish consumption in rural areas (kg/person/year) % % 43 77 % 62 115 % % % 11 >150 150 11 % 61 98 33 % 10 75 90 50 25 21 55 Examples only Range x-y% Source: Bell et al. (2009), Gillett (2009)

  5. Fish needed for good nutrition Basic protein requirement is 0.7 g/kg body weight/day (WHO) • Ideal: 50% of protein derived from fish • = 35 kg/person/year

  6. Plans to use fish for food security • Provide 35 kg of fish per person per year • Maintain traditional fish consumption where it is >35 kg

  7. Coastal fisheries / coral reefs, mangroves and sea grasses Where does most fish come from? Photos: Eric Clua, Gary Bell, Christophe Launay

  8. The problem! • Sustainable catches from most reefs are unknown Solution: use median estimate of 3 tonnes per km2per year

  9. Factors affecting availability of fish • Coral reef area – three groups of PICTs Group 2 Group 3

  10. Factors affecting availability of fish Group 1 Group 2 Group 3

  11. Factors affecting availability of fish • Population growth (million) Source: SPC Statistics for Development Programme

  12. Solomon Islands 50 40 7 30 13 21 20 28 22 10 14 0 Availability of reef fish per person (kg) Fiji Availability of reef fish per person (kg) 50 Effects of population growth on availability of fish per person 40 35 kg 35 kg 3 9 30 20 35 32 26 10 0 2035 2035 2050 2050 2100 2100 Year Year

  13. Effects of climate change Today 2035(-2 to -5%) 2050 (-20%) 2100 (-20 to -50%)

  14. Effects of climate change

  15. Group 1 Effects of population growth AND climate change • No implications! *Based on 3 tonnes of fish and invertebrates per km2 of reef per year, and A2 emissions scenario

  16. Group 2 • Effects of population growth AND climate change • Some implications *Based on 3 tonnes of fish and invertebrates per km2 of reef per year, and A2 emissions scenario

  17. Group 3 • Severe implications due to population growth alone! *Based on 3 tonnes of fish and invertebrates per km2 of reef per year, and A2 emissions scenario

  18. Solomon Islands 50 40 7 7 30 13 16 21 24 20 28 28 22 10 19 14 11 0 Fiji Availability of reef fish per capita (kg) Availability of reef fish per capita (kg) 50 Additional effects of climate change 40 35 kg 35 kg 3 7 9 30 15 20 35 34 32 28 26 10 20 0 2035 2035 2050 2050 2100 2100 Year Year Additional effects of climate change Effects of population growth

  19. Group 3 • Gap to be filled *Based on 3 tonnes of fish and invertebrates per km2 of reef per year, and A2 emissions scenario

  20. Group 3 - How best to fill the gap? Fish needed for food security tonnes (x1000) Coastal fisheries Freshwater fisheries Pond aquaculture Tuna (and bycatch)

  21. 74% 77% 78%

  22. Conclusions • PICTs in Groups 1 and 2 have sufficient coral reef per person to provide fish for food security well into the future • Shortages of fish may occur near major towns due to distribution problems

  23. Conclusions • Population growth in PICTs in Group 3 will have a much stronger effect on availability of fish than climate change • Shortages of reef (demersal) fish will occur in all these PICTs • Most of the gap will need to be filled by tuna

  24. Conclusions • Practical adaptations and policies are needed to minimise and fill the gap

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