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Western Water Supply

Western Water Supply. Kevin Werner, Andrew Murray, WR/SSD Jay Breidenbach, WFO Boise Cass Goodman, Steve Shumate, CBRFC Alan Takamoto, Scott Staggs, CNRFC Don Laurine, NWRFC Chad Kahler, WFO Tuscon. RFC Verification Workshop, 08/14/2007. Outline. Western Water Supply History

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Western Water Supply

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  1. Western Water Supply Kevin Werner, Andrew Murray, WR/SSD Jay Breidenbach, WFO Boise Cass Goodman, Steve Shumate, CBRFC Alan Takamoto, Scott Staggs, CNRFC Don Laurine, NWRFC Chad Kahler, WFO Tuscon RFC Verification Workshop, 08/14/2007

  2. Outline • Western Water Supply • History • Project overview • Westwide map • Forecast evolution • Verification • Ensemble services • Future enhancements • Climate variability and change • Short range ensembles services

  3. Western Water Supply Forecasts • Forecasts for spring runoff amounts from snow melt dominated basins in western US • Routinely produced at 6 RFCs and coordinated with other agencies (NRCS and California DWR) • NWS forecast program began in 1940s • Primary forecast tools: • Ensemble Streamflow Prediction • Multivariate Linear Regression Legacy Water Supply Forecast Product (Credit: NRCS / NOAA)

  4. Project in a Nutshell • Goals: • A “one stop shop” for NWS water information at the seasonal timescale • Consistent presentation of products between RFCs • Harness collective innovation from multiple offices • Users: • Existing Water Supply forecast users • Strong support from USBR and state water resources agencies for examples • Groups with cross basin interests (e.g. media, power companies) • NWS internal uses • Major Components: • Map: Single map for all western WS forecasts from 6 RFCs • Forecast evolution: Plotting capbility to show evolution of current year forecast and observed river flow • Verification: Forecast evaluation from past forecasts and forecast tools • Ensemble services: Interaction capapility with ensemble streamflow predication

  5. Project in a Nutshell (con’t) • Milestones (past): • April 2005: Working group formed, planning meeting held • January 2006: Initial website launched • September 2006: Included AB, WG, and MB RFCs in development • January 2007: Common database developed • March 2007: Launched outreach effort and included SHs • Milestones (future): • August 2007: Launch verification 1.0 capabilities • September 2007: Move software to NWRFC web farm • October 2007: Launch forecast evolution 2.0 • October 2007: Launch ensemble services 1.0 • January 2008: Integrate WGRFC data • 2008?: Integrate climate change capabilities

  6. Map www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater • “One Stop Shop” for NWS water supply forecasts • Flexible and consistent map presence across western USA • Zoomable to basin scale • Mouse over capability for forecast values

  7. Forecast Evolution • Evolution of current year forecast and observed streamflow • Options to include: • Normal streamflow volume • Forecast window • Forecast accumulation • Etc • Originally developed at NWRFC • Version 2.0 contract development work proceeding • Add ESP forecasts • Add interactive features

  8. Forecast Verification • Goal: Provide users of all types with forecast verification information • Easy to understand • Meaningful • Accessible from forecasts • Dynamically generated plots from database Plot credit: Chad Kahler

  9. Ensemble Services Goals: • Intuitive user interface for current ensemble forecast • Access to archived streamflow data for perspective • Dynamic, flexible plots • Access to underlying data and database • Climate change scenarios

  10. Climate Change • Latest IPCC report confirms “temperatures averaged over all habitable continents … will very likely rise at greater than the global average rate in the next 50 years and by an amount substantially in excess of natural variability.” (IPCC WR1, 2007) Source: IPCC, 2007

  11. Trends in 1 Apr SWE over the 1960–2002 (left) and 1950-1997 (right) periods of record directly from snow course observations from Mote (2006) and Mote et al. (2005) respectively.

  12. Extend NWS Product Suite? Years • Current product suite covers hours to seasons; • Should we consider climate change scenarios and build multi-year products for run-off, temperature, precipitation? • User requirements from power companies, BoR, etc for climate change scenarios Climate Change based run off scenarios?

  13. Water Supply withClimate Change • Many in water community are asking for it • Idea: Provide scenario based water supply outlooks in the context of historical data and current season forecasts • Include uncertainty • Temperature, precipitation, and/or lead time based scenarios • Ultimately link scenarios to atmospheric carbon based scenarios • Leverage historical simulation capabilities in ESP

  14. Leveraging ESP for long range scenarios • Multiple “historical simulation” runs: • Use historical basin temperature and precipitation time series • Build ensemble by repeatedly shifting year order by one • Incorporate scenarios through additive (temperature) or multiplicative (precipitation) year-wise adjustments

  15. ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICES Forecast Point: Columbia River at the Dalles Dam

  16. Summary • Western Water Supply • History • Current capabilities • Coming enhancements • Verification • Water Supply ensemble services • Climate Change

  17. Thank you

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