100 likes | 205 Views
Ensemble sensitivity analysis. Research performed by Minghua Zheng (SBU graduate student) References: Torn and Hakim (2008, 2009). Initial time 2010 Dec 23 12Z, 84 hour ECMWF ensemble forecast. Ensemble mean. Variance. Dec 27 2010 00Z (84-hr fcst).
E N D
Ensemble sensitivity analysis Research performed by Minghua Zheng (SBU graduate student) References: Torn and Hakim (2008, 2009)
Initial time 2010 Dec 23 12Z, 84 hour ECMWF ensemble forecast
Ensemble mean Variance Dec 27 2010 00Z (84-hr fcst)
Sensitivity of EOF 1 (weak/strong cyclone) to 500 hPa height 0-lag Here, J is the principal component of EOF1 EOF1 positive phase: weaker cyclone
T-0hr (27 00Z) T-24hr (26 00Z) T-60hr (24 12Z)
Sensitivity of EOF 2 (SW/NE shift of cyclone) to 500 hPa height 0-lag EOF2 positive phase: southwest shift of cyclone
T-0hr (27 00Z) T-24hr (26 00Z) T-48hr (25 00Z)
T-48 hr (25 00Z) Sensitivity EOF1 EOF2
T-60 hr (24 12Z) Sensitivity EOF1 EOF2
SBU CSTAR future work: • Examine sensitivity for different forecast metric J • Examine sensitivity computed using multi-model ensembles • Relate to ETKF sensitivity