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State of the System Report

State of the System Report. Technical Committee Meeting January 27, 2012. Overall Structure of Report. Adequacy Assessment – Green , Yellow or Red Multiple adequacy metrics Curtailment statistics and conditions when they occur Annual probability curves [Not sure we need this]

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State of the System Report

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  1. State of the System Report Technical Committee Meeting January 27, 2012

  2. Overall Structure of Report • Adequacy Assessment – Green, YelloworRed • Multiple adequacy metrics • Curtailment statistics and conditions when they occur • Annual probability curves [Not sure we need this] • Monthly probability curves and LOLP values • Market resources • Borrowed hydro • Hourly probability curves by month • Market resources • Borrowed hydro

  3. Preliminary Adequacy Assessment for 2015 - GREEN

  4. Curtailment Statistics

  5. Curtailment Events

  6. Annual Energy Curtailment Probability Curve

  7. Highest Hour Curtailment Probability Curve

  8. Monthly LOLP and Standby Resource Use Probability (SRUP)

  9. Likelihood of using Market Resources and Borrowed Hydro For Illustration Only – From a Test Simulation

  10. Average use of Market Resources and Borrowed Hydro For Illustration Only – From a Test Simulation

  11. Monthly Average IPP Dispatch Probability Curve For Illustration Only – From a Test Simulation

  12. SW Market Hourly PurchaseProbability Curve 1000 MW of Off-Peak also

  13. IPP Hourly PurchaseProbability Curve

  14. Future Work • Finalize assumptions • Update data • Load • Resources • Contracts • Develop a prototype State of the System report • Create a web site to host the State of the System results • Assess adequacy for 2017 • Complete the State of the System report for 2017

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