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Monetary Policy Report October 2012

Monetary Policy Report October 2012. Figure 1.1. GDP in different regions Annual percentage change. Note. KIX is an aggregate of Sweden’s most important trading partners. Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, National sources and the Riksbank.

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Monetary Policy Report October 2012

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  1. Monetary Policy ReportOctober 2012

  2. Figure 1.1. GDP in different regionsAnnual percentage change Note. KIX is an aggregate of Sweden’s most important trading partners. Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, National sources and the Riksbank

  3. Figure 1.2. GDP with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors. There is also uncertainty for the outcomes for GDP, as the figures in the National Accounts are revised several years after the preliminary publication. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  4. Figure 1.3. CPIF with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  5. Figure 1.4. CPI with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  6. Figure 1.5. Repo rate with uncertainty bandsPer cent, quarterly averages Note. The uncertainty bands for the repo rate are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors and the ability of risk-adjusted market rates to forecast the future repo rate for the period 1999 up to the point when the Riksbank started to publish forecasts for the repo rate during 2007. The uncertainty bands do not take into account the fact that there may be a lower bound for the repo rate. Source: The Riksbank

  7. Figure 1.6. Government bond rates with 10 years left to maturityPer cent Source: Reuters EcoWin

  8. Figure 1.7. Unit labour costIndex, 2000 = 100, seasonally-adjusted data Note. Only seasonally-adjusted data up to the end of Q1, 2011 is available for Greece. Source: Eurostat

  9. Figure 1.8. GDP in Sweden, the euro area and USAQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  10. Figure 1.9. Inflation in the euro area and the United StatesAnnual percentage change Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Eurostat Note. This refers to HICP for the euro area and CPI for the United States.

  11. Figure 1.10. GDP in the world and the Swedish export marketAnnual percentage change Note. The export market aims to measure demand for imports in the countries to which Sweden exports. This is calculated by aggregating the imports of 32 countries and covers around 85 per cent of the Swedish export market. Sources: IMF, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  12. Figure 1.11. KIX- and TCW-weighted nominal exchange rates Index, 18 November 1992 = 100 Note. KIX and TCW refers to different aggregates of currencies on the basis of trading patterns. KIX weights are updated regularly and cover a larger group of countries. Outcome data are daily rates and forecasts are quarterly averages. Source: The Riksbank

  13. Figure 1.12. KIX- and TCW-weighted real exchange ratesIndex, 18 November 1992 = 100, quarterly averages Note. The real exchange rate is deflated by the CPIF for Sweden and the CPI for abroad. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate. Sources: National sources, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  14. Figure 1.13. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  15. Figure 1.14. Households’ disposable incomes, consumption and saving ratio Annual percentage change and per cent of disposable income Note. Saving ratio including saving in collective insurance schemes. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  16. Figure 1.15. Household wealthPer cent of disposable income Note. There is no regular publication of official data for the households’ total wealth. The series refers to the Riksbank’s estimate of the households’ total financial assets and housing assets. Liquid wealth mainly refers here to cash, bank deposits, bonds and shares (directly owned and funds). Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  17. Figure 1.16. Household debtPer cent of disposable income Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  18. Figure 1.17. Swedish exports and the world market for Swedish exports Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data Note. The export market aims to measure demand for imports in the countries to which Sweden exports. This is calculated by aggregating the imports of 32 countries and covers around 85 per cent of the Swedish export market. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  19. Figure 1.18. Gross fixed capital formation and GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  20. Figure 1.19. General government net lendingPer cent of GDP Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  21. Figure 1.20. Net exports, total financial balance and current accountPer cent of GDP Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  22. Figure 1.21. Labour force and number of employedThousands, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  23. Figure 1.22. UnemploymentPer cent of the labour force, aged 15-74, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  24. Figure 1.23. RU indicatorStandard deviation Note. The RU indicator is normalised so that the mean value is 0 and the standard deviation is 1. Source: The Riksbank

  25. Figure 1.24. GDP and labour market gapPer cent Note. GDP gap refers to the deviation from trend in GDP calculated using a production function. The hours gap and the employment gap refer to the deviation in the number of hours worked and the number of those employed from the Riksbank’s assessed trend. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  26. Figure 1.25. Cost pressures in the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  27. Figure 1.26. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energyAnnual percentage change Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  28. Figure 1.27. CPIFAnnual percentage change Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  29. Figure 1.28. CPIAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  30. Figure 1.29. CPIF excluding energyAnnual percentage change Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  31. Figure 1.30. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank

  32. Figure 1.31. Real repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages Note. The real repo rate is calculated as an average of the Riksbank’s repo rate forecasts for the coming year minus the inflation forecast (CPIF) for the corresponding period. Source: The Riksbank

  33. Figure 2.1. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics and the Riksbank

  34. Figure 2.2. Labour productivity and GDPAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  35. Figure 2.3. Labour productivity Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  36. Figure 2.4. CPIFAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  37. Figure 2.5. Hours gapPer cent Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  38. Figure 2.6. UnemploymentPer cent of the labour force, aged 15-74, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  39. Figure 2.7. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank

  40. Figure 2.8. CPIAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  41. Figure 2.9. KIX-weighted nominal exchange rateIndex, 18 November 1992 = 100, quarterly averages Note. KIX is an aggregate of Sweden's most important trading partners. Source: The Riksbank

  42. Figure 2.10. CPIFAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  43. Figure 2.11. Hours gap Per cent Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  44. Figure 2.12. UnemploymentPer cent of the labour force, aged 15-74, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  45. Figure 2.13. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank

  46. Figure 2.14. CPI Annual percentage change, quarterly averages Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  47. Figure 2.15. Alternative repo-rate pathsPer cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank

  48. Figure 2.16. Hours gapPer cent Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  49. Figure 2.17. UnemploymentPer cent of the labour force, aged 15-74, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  50. Figure 2.18. CPIAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

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