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World Urbanization Prospects, 2011 Revision

World Urbanization Prospects The 2011 Revision Presentation at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Washington, DC; 7 June 2012 Gerhard K. Heilig.

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World Urbanization Prospects, 2011 Revision

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  1. World Urbanization ProspectsThe 2011 RevisionPresentation at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)Washington, DC; 7 June 2012Gerhard K. Heilig United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA)Population Division - Population Estimates and Projections Sectionwww.unpopulation.org Updated: 5 July 2012

  2. World Urbanization Prospects, 2011 Revision The author is Chief of the Population Estimates and Projections Section at the United Nations Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA). Disclaimer: The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations. The presentation’s content has not been formally edited and cleared by the United Nations. The designations employed and the presentation of material in this presentation do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

  3. Methodology Key Results of 2011 Revision The Urban Advantage Urban Problems World Urbanization Prospects, 2011 Revision 1 2 3 4

  4. World Urbanization Prospects, 2011 Revision 1 Methodology

  5. Challenges: Definitions 1 Demographic processes of urban change: Natural PopulationGrowth Rural-UrbanMigration Urban-UrbanMigration Urban-Rural Migration Sub-urbanization Natural PopulationDecline Administrative and physical processes of urban change: Expansion Incorporation Reclassification Foundation Abandonment Types of settlements: Hamlet Village Town City New City Urban Area Capital City Definitions used in WUP: City Proper Urban Agglomeration Metropolitan Area Urban agglomerations and capital cities: The term “urban agglomeration” refers to the population contained within the contours of a contiguous territory in-habited at urban density levels without regard to administrative boundaries. It usually incorporates the population in a city or town plus that in the suburban areas lying outside of but being adjacent to the city boundaries. Whenever possible, data classified according to the concept of urban agglomeration are used. However, some countries do not produce data according to the concept of urban agglomeration but use instead that of metropolitan area or city proper. If possible, such data are adjusted to conform to the concept urban agglomeration. When sufficient information is not available to permit such an adjustment, data based on the concept of city proper or metropolitan area are used. The sources listed online indicate whether data were adjusted to conform to the urban agglomeration concept or whether a different concept was used.

  6. Urbanization Process 1 Natural Population Growth Natural Population Growth Natural Population Growth Village Town Start City Demographic Rural-Urban Migration Urban-UrbanMigration PopulationGrowth Settlement Administrative New City Existing Village Reclassification Incorporation City Proper Existing Town Urban Clustering Incorporation Urban Agglomeration Existing City Metropolitan Area

  7. Definitions of Urban Areas 1 Distribution of countries according to the criteria used in defining urban areas, 2011 Revision

  8. Methodology: Projection of Urbanization 1 Census 1 (for instance: 1970) Urban-Rural Ratio Census 2 (for instance: 1980) Urban-rural Ratio Growth rate of the urban-rural ratio Difference between growth rates of urban and rural population Step 1:The URR is the basis for interpolation and extrapolation of the urban population. The projection uses the most recent urban-rural growth difference in a logistic equation. The proportion urban reaches its maximum growth rate when the proportion urban is 50% and declines to its asymptotic value of zero when the proportion urban is 100%.

  9. Methodology: Projection of Urbanization 1 Normally, an extrapolation based on a simple logistic curve would imply that the urban-rural growth difference remains constant over the projection period. Empirical evidence shows that this is unrealistic. Step 2: “Global Norm” A simple model is used to reduce the value of the urban-rural growth difference by calculating a hypothetical urban-rural growth difference (hrur) according to the following formula: hrur = 0.037623-0.02604 * PU (t0); PU(t0) is the proportion urban at the time of the initial census Essentially, this means that with increasing (initial) urbanization, the value of the hypothetical urban-rural growth difference (hrur) decreases. In other words: With growing urbanization the process slows down!

  10. Growth rate of URR vs. Proportion Urban 1

  11. World Urbanization Prospects, 2011 Revision 2 Key Results

  12. World: Urban and rural Population: 2010-2100 2 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2012): World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York

  13. Urban Population by Major Regions: 2010-2100 2 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2012): World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York

  14. Percentage Urban:All Countries & Major Regions: 2010 2 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2012): World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York

  15. Urban and Rural Population Change: 2010-2100 2 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2012): World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York

  16. World: Mega-Cities with 10+ Million Inhabitants 2 Population (millions) Number Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2012): World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York

  17. Mega-Cities and selected Countries in 2025 2 Sweden London Belgium Bangkok Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2012): World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York

  18. Urban concentration 3 • In 1800 only about 3% of world population lived in urban areas • Today, 50% of world population lives in urban areas • Currently, there are 23 cities with >10 million population • By 2025, there will be 37 cities with >10 million population • The first city with 1+ million was probably London (in 1811) • Today, there are 456 cities with more than 1 million inhabitants • 1,4 billion people live in cities with >1 million “Only 600 urban centers, with a fifth of the world’s population, generate 60 percent of global GDP”. McKinsey&Company (2011): Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities. McKinsey Global Institute

  19. Geography and Urbanization 3

  20. China: Urbanization Process 3 Annual Growth Rate of City Population in China by City Class Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2012): World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York

  21. World Urbanization Prospects, 2011 Revision 3 The Urban Advantage

  22. Implications for Development 3 1 Agricultural modernization is a major push factor for urbanization (hundreds of millions rural excess labor force) 2 Paid labor is a major pull factor of urban areas (particularly for women): urban service sector, garment and electronics industry 3 Urban areas can provide manyother advantages: better education, health services, entertainment, anonymity, political participation, freedom from traditional norms Urbanization promotes development.

  23. Implications for the environment 3 1 Urbanization allows rural areas to reducepopulation density (reduce population pressure on arable land; possibility of re-naturalization) 2 Urbanizationincreases, but also concentrates environmental impacts. Concentrated air and water pollution is easier to mitigate or prevent (point sources). 3 Planned urbanization without urban sprawl could reduce the land-use impact(today lack of planning usually results in massive loss of arable land due to urban sprawl) Urbanizations could (theoretically) reduce environmental degradation.

  24. World Urbanization Prospects, 2011 Revision 4 Urban Problems

  25. The Future of Urban Planning?

  26. The Future of Urban Housing? 4

  27. The Future of Urban Housing? 4

  28. Urban Slums

  29. The Future of Urban Land Use? 4

  30. The Future Urban Environment? 4

  31. The Future Urban Air Quality?

  32. Urban Heat Islands (Madrid) 4 Source: http://due.esrin.esa.int/news/news270.php

  33. The Future of Urban Recreation? 4 Urban Rural

  34. The Future of Urban Transportation 4

  35. Failures of urban policy and planning 4 1 Slums: Failure to plan and build low-cost housing, basic transportation (paved roads), electricity and freshwater supply, garbage collection and sewage systems 2 Bad urban environment: Failure to prevent traffic congestion, air pollution, excessive noise, sub-standard housing, energy-inefficient buildings; failure to provide sufficient green spaces. 3 High urban crime rates: Gang violence, drug trafficking, sexual exploitation, high murder rates The quality of life is low in many of today’s urban areas (including in highly developed countries) due to bad urban management, lack of planning, corruption, excessive profit-orientation, and disruption of social structures.

  36. What needs to be done? 4 1 Decentralize mega-cities (into independent districts with their own political leadership); but centralize infrastructure planning 2 Plan and build infrastructure of new cities from the “ground up” (18th century cities were better planned and built than many modern suburbs; “laissez faire approach” of urban planning has failed) 3 Introduce serious toll system for private cars in inner cities (minimize private car use within cities; maximize public transport) Strengthen legislation on quality of life (air and water quality, noise reduction, sewage treatment, waste recycling, energy efficiency) 4 5 Follow concept of smart crime prevention (“low-tolerance” policing policy; public investments into neighborhood projects and clubs)

  37. What needs to be done? 4 6 Combat corruption and land-grabs(public officials need to be rotated between cities) 7 Establish and promote (technical and political) city planning departments at universities (get the city planning out of the hands of art-oriented architects; focus on infrastructure and engineering) 8 Require, by law, city zoning to include at least 25% of green space and parks (stop private investors to max-out land use) 9 Limit participation of special interest groups to principal decisions(pressure groups should not decide about technical details of infrastructure or be able to delay infrastructure projects for decades) 10 Stop city planning to be perverted into a form of capital investment gambling(“gambling” with urban housing development)

  38. The Rural World?

  39. Thank You ! http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/index.html

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