Risk Assessment and Management

1. Risk Assessment and Management technological and environmental risk analysis as a spatial DSS example © K. Fedra 2000

2. What is Risk ? • theprobability © K. Fedra 2000

3. What is Risk ? • theprobability of incurring a loss or injury © K. Fedra 2000

4. Different types of Risk: • voluntary or involuntary • high-probability, low-consequence • low-probability, high-consequence • individual or societal • environmental or technological © K. Fedra 2000

5. Different types of Risk Management: • inactive (ignore it) • reactive (abatement) • interactive (management) • proactive (planning) © K. Fedra 2000

6. Different types of Risk Management: • risk assessment and planning identify, forecast, analyse, plan • operational risk abatement detect, diagnose, correct © K. Fedra 2000

7. Estimating Risks A Gaming approach: • probability of winning, • amount to win, • probability of losing, • amount to lose. © K. Fedra 2000

8. Estimating Risks Expected value: • probability of loss or damage • magnitude of the loss Vexp = p(D) * V(D) © K. Fedra 2000

9. Estimating Risks Some problems: • risk is about the unexpected: this means large inherent uncertainties • low probability means little data • insurance can be expensive, consider the opportunity costs © K. Fedra 2000

10. Environmental risks • floods and droughts • hurricanes, typhoons • earthquakes, tsunamis • mudslides, avalanches • forest fires • toxic fumes (Cameroon) • climate change, sea level rise © K. Fedra 2000

11. Technological risks • fires and explosions • toxic chemicals release - from process plants - from transportation accidents • oil spills • nuclear accidents © K. Fedra 2000

12. Technological risks • dioxin release (Seveso, 1976) • gas explosion (Mexico, 1984) • methylisocyanate (Bhopal, 1984) • toxic spill (River Rhine, 1986) • Chernobyl (reactor meltdown) • Amocco Cadiz , Exxon Valdez (Oils spills) © K. Fedra 2000

13. Industrial Safety Review • Leadership and Administration • Management and Training • Job Analysis and Procedures • Emergency Preparedness • Accident/Incident Analysis • Employee Training • Safety and Protective Equipment © K. Fedra 2000

14. Facility Emergency Response • Plant Emergency Organization • Plant Risk Evaluation • Area Risk Evaluation • Notification Procedures, Communication • Emergency Equipment and Facilities • Procedure for return to normal operations © K. Fedra 2000

15. Facility Emergency Response • Plant Emergency Organization • Plant Risk Evaluation • Area Risk Evaluation • Notification Procedures, Communication • Emergency Equipment and Facilities • Procedure for return to normal operations © K. Fedra 2000

16. Facility Emergency Response Plant Risk Evaluation • quantities, locations, and storage conditions of hazardous materials • properties of materials (MSD sheets) • location of isolation valves • fire fighting procedures • special handling requirements © K. Fedra 2000

17. Plant risk evaluation Site data base includes basic administrative, technical, regulatory and safety relevant information: hazardous chemicals safety response plans and equipment © K. Fedra 2000

18. Site data base examples © K. Fedra 2000

19. Site data base examples © K. Fedra 2000

20. Site data base examples © K. Fedra 2000

21. Plant risk evaluation Hazardous chemicals data base includes substance identification data (names, synonyms, CAS, UN number), physical, chemical, and toxicological properties, associates production processes and waste streams. © K. Fedra 2000

22. Hazardous chemicals DB © K. Fedra 2000

23. Facility Emergency Response • Plant Emergency Organization • Plant Risk Evaluation • Area Risk Evaluation • Notification Procedures, Communication • Emergency Equipment and Facilities • Procedure for return to normal operations © K. Fedra 2000

24. Facility Emergency Response Area Risk Evaluation • hazardous materials at nearby plants • nearby residences, population centers including schools, hospitals, nursing homes (evacuation procedures) • contacts at other sites (names, phone) • notification procedures © K. Fedra 2000

25. Hazards Analysis a spatial approach: • evaluates the vulnerability of a geographical area, its population and environment to technological risks (e.g., hazardous materials release from process plants or transportation accidents) © K. Fedra 2000

26. Hazards Analysis Checklist • Has a hazards analysis been completed for this area ? • When was it last updated ? • Does the analysis include the location, type, and amount of hazardous materials manufactured, processed, stored, disposed within the area ? © K. Fedra 2000

27. Hazards Analysis Checklist • Does it include transportation routes of hazardous materials ? • Have areas of public health concern be identified ? • Have sensitive environmental areas been identified ? © K. Fedra 2000

28. Hazards Analysis Checklist • Have historical data on accidents been collected and analyzed ? • Have levels of vulnerability been identified for different areas ? • Are environmentally sensitive areas and population centers included in plant and transportation risk assessment ? © K. Fedra 2000

29. Application examples: • simulation of atmospheric dispersion of toxic substances from transportation or process plant accidents. • uses local geographical, land use, and and population data to estimate exposure and simulate evacuation plans. © K. Fedra 2000

30. Atmospheric release: © K. Fedra 2000

31. Application examples: • simulation of aquatic spills of toxics. • uses chemical properties together with hydrological data, estimates the concentration of the chemical along the river and over time. Can use an embedded expert system to estimate environmental damage. © K. Fedra 2000

32. Aquatic spill: © K. Fedra 2000

33. Risk Planning: Regulatory frameworks • safety audits, regular inspections • chemicals registry • waste management • transportation safety • emergency planning • zoning © K. Fedra 2000

34. Regulatory frameworks European Union: The Directive on Major Accident Hazards of Certain Industrial Activities (Seveso Directive) Council Directive of June 24, 1982 (82/501/EEC), Official Journal of the European Communities, L230, Vol.25, August 5, 1982. © K. Fedra 2000

35. Seveso Directive Background: industrial accidents (Seveso, Flixborough) characterised by a lack of information (substances and amounts involved) by the local authorities, and lack of emergency planning. © K. Fedra 2000

36. Seveso Directive Objective: improve the generation and control of correct information flow among the actors in the risk management procedure (industrial activities that process or store hazardous materials). © K. Fedra 2000

37. Seveso Directive Provisions: • states must appoint a competent authority • operators must prove to the CA • major hazards have been identified • safety measures have been taken to prevent accidents © K. Fedra 2000

38. Seveso Directive when hazardous substance inventories exceed thresholds: • operator provides CA with Safety Report • prepares internal emergency plan • provides information to CA for off-site emergency plan • CA is notified of any major modification © K. Fedra 2000

39. Seveso Directive • CA provides for external emergency planning • states ensure that people potentially affected by an accidents are actively informed on safety measures • operators report any major accident • states notify the Commission • Commission keeps a register of accidents © K. Fedra 2000

40. Risk Assessment Zoning and land-use planning based on external safety report. © K. Fedra 2000

41. Risk Assessment Risk contours around a plant location: 10-6 events/year unacceptable individual risk 10-8 events/year negligible risk © K. Fedra 2000

42. Risk Assessment Risk levels (the Dutch perspective) 10-4 events/year: voluntarily accepted in daily life 10-5 events/year: maximum tolerable total involuntary risk 10-6 events/year: unacceptable involuntary from a single source 10-8 events/year: negligible risk © K. Fedra 2000

43. Risk analysis procedure • Hazard identification • Accident frequency and consequence estimation • Risk calculation • Risk reduction and acceptability © K. Fedra 2000

44. Risk analysis procedure Hazard Identification (HAZID) • Process/system checklist • Safety review • Preliminary Hazard Analysis • Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) • Hazard and Operability Analysis (HAZOP) • Systematic Identification of Release Points © K. Fedra 2000

45. Risk analysis procedure Frequency and Consequence Estimation: • Fault tree • Event tree • Cause Consequence Diagram • Generic Reliability Database © K. Fedra 2000

46. Risk analysis procedure Fault tree analysis: run-away reaction due to cooling failure © K. Fedra 2000

47. Risk analysis procedure Failure of: heating system sensor shutdown system cooling system safety valve © K. Fedra 2000

48. Risk analysis procedure Event tree: traces possible events from loss of cooling to: safe shutdown discharge from safety valve explosion © K. Fedra 2000

49. Risk analysis procedure Every event A has possible outcome C (with probability: p) and B (1-p) depending on failure probability © K. Fedra 2000

50. Risk analysis procedure Consequences: • discharge (flow, evaporation) • fire: jet, pool/tank, flash, fireball • explosion and release: • unconfined vapor cloud (UVCE) • boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE) • physical explosion • runaway reaction explosion • dust gas/dust mixture explosion © K. Fedra 2000