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Catalogue Severe Weather Netherlands 1950- today and ERA-40

Catalogue Severe Weather Netherlands 1950- today and ERA-40. Geert Groen ECMWF June 2005. Who does not want to learn from the past…. GALE. FOG. Februari 1, 1953: 1836 people killed, 187000 cattle drowned. August 25, 1972 and Nov 6, 1990: Fogaccidents 23 dead, 42 injured. STORM.

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Catalogue Severe Weather Netherlands 1950- today and ERA-40

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  1. Catalogue Severe Weather Netherlands 1950- todayand ERA-40 Geert Groen ECMWF June 2005

  2. Who does not want to learn from the past…. GALE FOG Februari 1, 1953: 1836 people killed, 187000 cattle drowned. August 25, 1972 and Nov 6, 1990: Fogaccidents 23 dead, 42 injured STORM Tornado: August 23, 1950, Veluwe, 35900 cm trees June 25, 1967, Chaam and Tricht, 11 dead Aug 11, 1972, Ameland, campers, 4 dead Oct 6, 1981, airplane F28 Moerdijk 17 dead Aug 26, 1986, Slochteren and Appingedam Aug 5, 1993, Burgum (Gr), camping Snow and Freezing precipitation: 1958, 1963, 1969, 1978, 1981, 2002,…. Winterproblems

  3. My presentation:BackgroundObjectivesExamplesExperience with ERA40Plans

  4. Background for this project: • Severe Weather leads to Weather Alarm, 3-5 cases/year...slow growing experience • Solution: look back in history….the catalogue • Disaster 1953, excellent reanalysis ECMWF/NCEP • Inspired to use ERA-40, 4D-reanalysis up to 6 days before event

  5. Objectives: Increasing knowledge on a synoptic scale of severe weather • Open all information (incl. ERA) • Increase (my) experience • Improve model • Operational knowledge • Simulate severe weather events • Stimulate (E-)learning

  6. Index example

  7. Case-link example

  8. Typical chart-display

  9. Experiences sofar: Positive • Exploring ERA and historical material good combination • Inspired use of operational knowledge • ERA: good pressure reconstruction • ERA: thetaw mirror of fronts/troughs • ERA: PV315K illustrative • In general: ERA OK for large-scale

  10. Experiences sofar: Negative • ERA-resolution 6 hrs, 1.5 deg for smaller scale events • Windspeed 1-3 Bft to low • No profiles and precipitation

  11. Plans and wishes……. • More cases (upto 10 cases/year?) • Good historical material • Investigating by keyparameters • E-learning modules • Weather-simulator • Use of ECMWF and HIRLAM-forecast • Reanalysis of cases in HIRLAM

  12. Suggestions, questions and remarks? • Demonstration part of the test-catalogue (7 dec 1959)

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