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Global Economic Prospects, Risks and Challenges for Europe

Global Economic Prospects, Risks and Challenges for Europe. Robert F. Wescott, Ph.D. SACE Milan 18 November 2005. Perceived Global Investment Risk. Percent rating the region “low risk” minus percent rating it “high risk”. Source: UBS Index of Investor Optimism, August 2005.

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Global Economic Prospects, Risks and Challenges for Europe

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  1. Global Economic Prospects, Risks and Challenges for Europe Robert F. Wescott, Ph.D. SACE Milan 18 November 2005

  2. Perceived Global Investment Risk Percent rating the region “low risk” minus percent rating it “high risk” Source: UBS Index of Investor Optimism, August 2005

  3. Economic Policy Floodgates Closing Source: IMF WEO, Author’s calculations for China

  4. Oil: A Growing Burden on the World Economy Source: EIA, IMF WEO

  5. Investors Concerned about Energy Percent giving each answer to the question, “how much are energy prices hurting the U.S. investment climate?” Source: UBS Survey of Investor Optimism, Sept. 19, 2005

  6. The Oil Price Pass-Through to Inflation is Falling Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Energy Information Agency

  7. Why Isn’t the Dow at 12,800?(because of energy prices) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Yahoo! Finance

  8. Housing Prices Rising Worldwide Percent Change, 1997-2005 Source: The Economist

  9. Potential Impact of a Housing Crunch on GDP Source: Global Insight

  10. Can Disequilibrium Continue? (China produces, the U.S. consumes?) Source: IMF WEO

  11. Historically, Rising Interest Rates Add Financial Pressures Source: Federal Reserve

  12. China’s Trend Has Been Sharply Upward Source: IMF

  13. The Euro Area’s Unemployment Rate Exceeds that of the Rest of the Industrialized World Source: OECD, Standardized Unemployment Rates *South Korea 2000-2005

  14. Europe Lags the U.S. in Productivity Average percent change in labor productivity, 2002-2004 Source: OECD

  15. High Tech Manufactures: Asia Rising, Europe Declining Source: National Science Foundation, “Science and Engineering Indicators 2004”

  16. Greenspan’s Medicine Would Help Europe(Real short-term interest rates) Fed funds / ECB policy rate deflated by “core” CPI inflation EU real interest rate EU real interest rate US real interest rate Sources: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, European Central Bank, European Commission

  17. Cross Country R & D Spending Percent of GDP, 2000 (latest available year) Source: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators 2004

  18. Percentage of 18-24 Year Olds in Science and Engineering Programs Source: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators 2002

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