1 / 21

TABLE-TOP EXERCISE: INDIAN OCEAN SCENARIO MAKRAN SOURCE Shallow, Offshore, Mw9.0

TABLE-TOP EXERCISE: INDIAN OCEAN SCENARIO MAKRAN SOURCE Shallow, Offshore, Mw9.0 Training Programme in Seismology and Tsunami Warnings Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 21-25 August, 2006 Male, Maldives, 27-31 August, 2006 Colombo, Sri Lanka, 30 August 2006. TWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES

sethbaker
Download Presentation

TABLE-TOP EXERCISE: INDIAN OCEAN SCENARIO MAKRAN SOURCE Shallow, Offshore, Mw9.0

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. TABLE-TOP EXERCISE: INDIAN OCEAN SCENARIO MAKRAN SOURCE Shallow, Offshore, Mw9.0 Training Programme in Seismology and Tsunami Warnings Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 21-25 August, 2006 Male, Maldives, 27-31 August, 2006 Colombo, Sri Lanka, 30 August 2006

  2. TWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES • SEISMIC DATA COLLECTION & ANALYSES • SEA LEVEL MEASUREMENTS & ANALYSES • DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES • MESSAGE CREATION & DISSEMINATION

  3. CHECKLIST Indian Ocean Events - Initial Bulletin EQ SOURCE CHARACTERIZATION Locate Epicenter (Tele-EQ, Pick, nquake) O Make/Examine Location Map (nquake) O Determine Depth (nquake) O Determine Magnitude (Mwp) O Issue Observatory MessageO Start Mm (email Papeete if Mw>7), SMAG, Theta O Select Message Type based on Criteria O Call in Other Watchstanders to Help (Watches) O Compute/Print/[Map] ETAs if a Warning or TIB O

  4. CHECKLIST - Indian Ocean Events - Initial Bulletin EQ SOURCE CHARACTERIZATION Locate Epicenter (Tele-EQ, Pick, nquake) O Make/Examine Location Map (nquake) O Determine Depth (nquake) O Determine Magnitude (Mwp) O Issue Observatory MessageO Start Mm (email Papeete if Mw>7), SMAG, Theta O Select Message Type based on Criteria O Call in Other Watchstanders to Help (Watches) O Compute/Print/[Map] ETAs if a Warning or TIB O

  5. Checklist - Indian Ocean Events ISSUE MESSAGE Run Message Software (for Indian Ocean) O Check Message before Sending: Bulletin Number (should be 1) O Message Type O Which Places Put in Watch Status O Add Statement for Anything Unusual O Earthquake Parameters O Estimated Arrival Times O

  6. Checklist - Indian Ocean Events ENSURE MESSAGE DISSEMINATION Check all Messages Went Out Resend if Necessary GTS (lp –d nmc nmcmsg [hnmcmsg]) O Fax/Telex (lp –d tlx tlxmsg) O NWW (lp –d nww nwwmsg [hnwwmsg]) O Web (/bin/ftp2webpac and /bin/ftp2webhaw) O Email (cat wmsg | /bin/mailx bulletin ) O EMWIN (call NWSTG if NMC okay) O HFO Fax (/bin/fax2hfo now) O Immediate Call Down List O

  7. Checklist - Indian Ocean Events CONTINUE FOR WATCHES, TIB w/Tsunami potential Call Closest Countries Confirm they got our message O Ask if they have any reports O Display and Monitor Nearest Sea Level Gauges O Trigger DARTS at least 30-min ahead of their ETAs O ReviewHistorical DataO Re-assess Magnitude Monitor Mm, SMAG O Check for Tsunami or Slow Earthquake (Mw vs Ms, Theta) O Monitor email for other EQ params and CMTs O

  8. INDIAN OCEAN BULLETIN CRITERIA

  9. 1945 Makran Accretionary margin, location of 1945 Tsunami in this region Island Arc Volcanics Mud Volcanoes A Mohktari et al., 2005

  10. Mohktari et al., 2005

  11. SCENARIO TIMELINE 0:00 Mw 9 Earthquake Occurs 0:10 PTWC Seismic Alarms Triggered 0:14 PTWC Initial Location/Magnitude Mw 8.1 0:15 PTWC Observatory Message 0:17 PTWC Basin-Wide Tsunami Watch 1 0:18 JMA Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 1

  12. P-wave TT 8 min Broadband Seismic Stations contributing data to PTWC

  13. SCENARIO TIMELINE 1:18 PTWC Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 2 Mw 8.9 revised 1:19 JMA Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 2 2:18 PTWC Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 3 2:19 JMA Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 3 Masirah SL gauge has not arrived (eta 2:23) - TWC may wait to issue

  14. Calculated Tsunami Arrival Times Station Xmit Arrival Transmit Masirah 15 01:23:29 01:27:00 Salalah 15 02:28:17 02:40:00 Hanimaadhoo 60 03:36:28 04:01:00 Male 15 04:12:04 04:15:00 Gan 60 04:23:18 05:01:00 Colombo 15 04:45:36 04:54:00 Pt.LaRue 60 05:33:36 05:41:00 Lamu 30 05:59:00 06:03:00 Zanzibar 15 06:47:03 06:49:00 Rodrigue 15 08:09:43 07:13:00 Port Luis 15 08:23:45 07:31:00

  15. Near-shore shallow bathymetry increases travel time Male Gan Masirah

  16. SCENARIO TIMELINE 3:18 PTWC Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 4 Salalah Sea level gauge (eta 3:26) 3:19 JMA Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 4 4:18 PTWC Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 5 Reading at Hanimaahdoo (eta 3:26) Male Sea level gauge (eta 4:12) 4:19 JMA Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 5 with Updated Amplitude Forecasts Gan (eta 4:23, but transmit 5:01 since 60 min transmit rate)

  17. Calculated Tsunami Arrival Times Station Xmit Arrival Transmit Masirah 15 01:23:29 01:27:00 Salalah 15 02:28:17 02:40:00 Hanimaadhoo 60 03:36:28 04:01:00 Male 15 04:12:04 04:15:00 Gan 60 04:23:18 05:01:00 Colombo 15 04:45:36 04:54:00 Pt.LaRue 60 05:33:36 05:41:00 Lamu 30 05:59:00 06:03:00 Zanzibar 15 06:47:03 06:49:00 Rodrigue 15 08:09:43 07:13:00 Port Luis 15 08:23:45 07:31:00

  18. SCENARIO TIMELINE 5:18 PTWC Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 6 5:19 JMA Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 6 Sea Level Readings - Maldives Diego Garcia 6:19-10:00 Addtl Sea Level Readings fr IO Stations Hourly Bulletins from PTWC / JMA • For Interim IOTWS System: • Basin-wide Watch => • Monitor sea levels across entire IO • No Warnings issued (so No Cancellation)

  19. Modeling Tsunami Propagation Makran Source

  20. THANK YOU

More Related