DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORT

1. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORT NATIONAL TRANSPORTMASTER PLAN 2005-2050PRESENTATION TO TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEENATMAP PASSENGER AND FREIGHT RAIL STRATEGIES First Draft AUGUST 2009

2. OUTLINE Status Quo Future Plans of PRASA & Transnet NATMAP View on Rail Plans Conclusions 2

3. OUTLINE Problems Project Approach Progress to Date Summary of Key Results National Issues Apparent from NATMAP Analysis Future Plans of PRASA & Transnet NATMAP View on Rail Plans Conclusions Recommendations 3

4. N1 FREEWAY JHB-PTA 2050?[PMG note: photo’s have been removed]

5. OUR PHILOSOPHY • “TRANSPORT IS THE HEART BEAT OF THE ECONOMY” • YOU PAY FOR A GOOD TRANSPORT WHETHER YOU HAVE GOT IT OR NOT • NATMAP 2050 IS A 42 YEARS JOURNEY AND NOT AN OVERNIGHT EVENT SO WE MUST START NOW AND NOT TO-MORROW • SLOW BUT SURE WINS THE RACE • LACK OF VISION AND PLANNING KILLS THE NATION • NATMAP 2050 IS MAKING RSA A LAND USE/TRANSPORT INTEGRATED PLANNING SOCIETY • NATMAP 2050 IS NOT A STUDY BUT A BIGGER PICTURE CRYSTALLISING ALL FACETS OF TRANSPORTATION FOR GRADUAL AND SUSTAINABLE IMPLEMENTATION

6. Bus/Bakkie People Rail NATMAP 2050 AN INTEGRATED APPROACH[PMG note: photo’s have been removed] Livestock Taxi Timber Truck

7. PROBLEMS • Poor land use/transport integrated planning • Poor rural accessiblity especially in predominantly rural areas of this country, • Uncoordinated implementation of multisectorial land use committed developmental mega projects, • Financing of transportation systems infrastructure facilities,rolling stock,and equipment competing with other public services sectors like health,education,housin,water,etc.for diminishing financial resources • Infrastructure civil engineering problems-substandard secondary road network/backlogs; • Obsolete railway infrastructure network,rollingstock and equipment; • Infrastructure -maintenance deterioration-R26 Free State • Institutional fragmentation

8. LAND USE[PMG note: photo’s have been removed]

9. DEMOGRAPHY[PMG note: photo’s have been removed]

10. The light density network consists of connecting lines between main lines and some branch lines and is 5500 km long.Most branch lines are low-density lines, while some branch lines have been closed down completely (the purple lines) because of low traffic levels and uneconomical services.The branch lines are a legacy of the days of the SAR&H, when, during the first half of the 20th century, the rural areas were made accessible to rail transport. Today they are carrying very little traffic.[PMG note: photo’s have been removed] Port Elizabeth

11. PROBLEMS[PMG note: photo’s have been removed] • Cost ineffective infrastructure facilities with massive civil engineering problems

12. PROBLEMS Obsolete Railways infrastructure facilities and rolling stock[PMG note: photo’s have been removed]

13. Gradually move to the dominant railway gauge and state of the art technology like the Germany Rail-Tilting train ICE10SARCC has requested NATMAP 2050 to quantify the impacts of such a shift taking cognizance of Gautrain and Moloto Railway corridor Projects[PMG note: photo’s have been removed]

14. Bullet train of Japan-Kyoto to Tokyo[PMG note: photo’s have been removed]

15. Chinese railways-high speed train @ 320 km/h

16. Jo’burg to Polokwane approximately 300km takes 27 minutes.[PMG note: photo’s have been removed]

17. PROBLEMS[PMG note: photo’s have been removed] • Infrastructure -overload (abnormal) control

18. Road maintenance problems • [PMG note: photo’s have been removed]

19. PROBLEMS[PMG note: photo’s have been removed] • Infrastructure -maintenance deterioration-R26 Free State

20. MINIMISE ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION[PMG note: photo’s have been removed] • Minimise environmental degradation impacts of transportation facilities-air pollution,ecological damage

21. UGIE-LANGENI ROADDesigned and built without destroying the indigenous forest. Probably the only of its kind in South Africa[PMG note: photo’s have been removed]

22. 2 PROJECT APPROACH • 9 Regions based on Provincial Boundaries • Phased implementation- Phase:1 Status Quo(Inventory); Phase: 2 Analysis; Phase: 3 Forward Planning; Phase : 4 Agenda for Action-5 Years Development Plan • Appointment of 3 Consortia; - Eurecon : Free State,Eastern Cape,Northern Cape,Mpumalanga,North West; - SSI : Western Cape,Kwazulu Natal; - Ingerop : Gauteng,Limpopo

23. PROJECT APPROACH 2050 • Forward Planning • Phase 3 • Project Planning • Road • Rail • Air • Port • Critical Projects • Future Vision & Forecast • Phase 2 • Future Model • Land-use • Economic Activity • Population • Infrastructure capacity 2005 • Inventory & Data Analysis • Phase 1 • Transport Infrastructure • Road • Rail • Air • Port • Land-use • Economic ability • Population • Action Agenda • Phase 4 • Institutional • Policy • Programmes, projects, costs DELIVERABLES • Round Table Ph1 • Report 1 • Round Table Ph3 • Report 3 • Round Table Ph4 • Report 4 • Round Table Ph2 • Report 2

24. 3.PROGRESS TO DATE • Provincial Phases 1-2 complete; • National Phase 1 complete; • Critical Stakeholders’ Round Table Conferences 1 and 2 • Interim GIS and Database • Base year model 2005 (calibration completed)

25. 4. SUMMARY OF KEY RESULTS Population and economic forecasts Scenario based economic forecasts

26. 3. SUMMARY OF KEY RESULTS Population and economic forecasts Scenario based population growth (% per annum) forecasts

27. 3. SUMMARY OF KEY RESULTS Population and economic forecasts Scenario based population forecasts

28. 3. SUMMARY OF KEY RESULTS Population and economic forecasts Scenario based population forecasts

29. 5. NATIONAL ISSUES • Financial, legal, institutional, management • Unclear and overlapping responsibilities • Planning authorities have no implementation authority • Efficiency of parastatal monopolies • Limited human resources and funding capacities at local and provincial level • Over-regulation and duplicating legislation

30. NATIONAL ISSUES • Energy and environmental • Energy security (in context of rising costs) • Food security versus energy (bio-fuel) production • Need for minimising environmental impact • Resulting constraints on infrastructure use

31. . Mapping the capacity building challenges From NATMAP it is evident that certain radical decisions must now be made in order for the transportation sector to meet its national, regional, continental, and global obligations. To this effect there is an urgent need for a homogenous, inclusive, interactive and rapid demand responsive decision making command post for all facets of transportation in order to ; • To save and/ or arrest the rapid deterioration of all infrastructure facilities especially the secondary road network,and/or the railway network; • Ensure adequate integration of transportation policies, planning, and operations • Overcome organizational and jurisdictional barriers to maximum utilisation of existing and new infrastructure facilities,rolling stock and equipment; • Integrate the provision of new public transport infrastructure facilities with land use decisions that encourage development of growth points • Avoid poor coordination between different transportation modes and land use developments, through socio-economic development programmes • Establish a National Central Planning Agency to harmonise multi-modal planning, implementation, maintenance and operations • Expedite implementation of vertical separation of transport infrastructure facilities from transportation operations-( railways) • Establish fully functional National Central Data Bank to ensure availability of demand and supply data required for forward planning and implementation

32. 1. STATUS QUO 1.1 FREIGHT

33. TOTAL FREIGHT FLOWS: TRANSNET MODEL[PMG note: photo’s have been removed] YEAR:2007 YEAR 2037 COAL/ IRON ORE EXCLUDE

34. 1.1 STATUS QUO Rail volumes (tonnes/year) per commodity for 2005

35. 1.1 STATUS QUO

36. 1.2 STATUS QUO 1.2 PASSENGERS

37. National Commuter Travel Patterns 10 million Commuters in RSA: Metros 48%; Urban 30%; Rural 22% Access to Public Transport 24% to rail 62% to bus 91% to taxi. 26% Households have cars

38. National Commuter Travel Patterns (2) 35 million trips per weekday in RSA Metros 35% Urban 26% Rural 39% Work Trips Modal Split: Public Tpt 40% Private Tpt 32% Walk/Other 28% Public Transport Modal Split Taxi 62.5% Bus 22.5%, Rail 15%

39. Sosholoza Meyl Passengers • Very Low Demand • Mainly serving lower income market • Low Frequencies and long travel times

40. HIGH PRIORITY PASSENGER CORRIDORS[PMG note: photo’s have been removed]

41. Main Passenger Transport Issues • Poorest of communities are totally dependent on public transport • Most expensive mode (taxis) = only mode well accessible (91%) • Least expensive form of transport (rail) is available to only 24% of people • Only metropolitan communities have access to rail (i.e. not the poorest) • Taxis operate where buses should, buses where rail should, rail declining • Rail technology (narrow gauge) is outdated, aging, declining service levels • Rail infrastructure network and service coverage virtually the same as in 1970 • Subsidised bus network not allowed to expand • Taxi mode absorbs the growth freely • Long distance public transport dominated by road transportation, mainly car • Aviation (and airports) and road network are the only modes comparable with international standards and in some respects even better • Government spending on these modes the highest, bus and rail the least • Institutional arrangements constrains turnaround

42. 2.1 Future Plans of TRANSNETNational Infrastructure Plan

43. FUTURE DEMAND FOR FREIGHT TRANSPORT IN SOUTH AFRICA Transnet's Freight Forecast model: Million tons 2006, 2011, 2016, 2021, 2026 Likely and high scenarios Gauteng-Beitbridge (incl. Polokwane) Gauteng-Nelspruit (incl. Witbank) Gauteng-Lobatse Gauteng-Richards Bay Gauteng-Cape Town Gauteng-Durban Coastal Gauteng-East London Gauteng-PE INTERMODAL SOLUTIONS: THE ONLY SUSTAINABLE WAY TO MEET DEMAND Source: Transnet Freight Demand Model

44. Rail network demand vs installed capacity[PMG note: photo’s have been removed] SIGNIFICANT SUSTAINED INVESTMENT IS REQUIRED Operational capacity limit Physical capacity limit

45. TRANSNET’S JOURNEY OF TRANSFORMATION Transformation horizons for a networked organisation • ‘Expand competitive advantage’ Current position • ‘Optimise and extend growth’ • Develop new customer services (e,g,. capacity management and supply chain integration products) • Strategic organisational initiatives • Develop and implement long term network improvement concepts • Achieve world-class performance levels • Build long term stakeholder relationships • Explore international expansion • ‘Stabilise the core’ • Boost HC • Professionalise commercial management • Invest in long-term capacity • Manage across businesses • Improve cross-divisional capital projects and financial planning • Sharpen management system • Funding strategy • ‘Stop the • bleeding’ • Implement critical infrastructure projects • Launch Vulindlela to stabilise key operational functions and capture productivity • Implement critical capability building • Complete disposals • Financial restructuring • New freight strategy and disposal of non-core assets • Restructure corporate centre • Create HC strategy • Risk and governance 2009 2004

46. NEW POLICY THINKING ON SOE’S • Extract from Minister Hogan’s budget speech • The current regulatory system was established during a period of minimal investment, and has not been adequately revised. • Given the accumulated backlog of investment in infrastructure, it is critical that we create an environment where the private sector can participate in the system alongside SOEs, rather than as an alternative to them. • It is absolutely critical that funding models for our enterprises be finalised as soon as possible. • In the present worldwide economic recession and in the light of the huge backlog in infrastructural investment, the SOEs must massively expand the rollout of their infrastructure programmes. • Extract from Minister Ndebele’s budget speech • We should be forward-looking and start investing in a manner that will meet future transport requirements. • We are also working towards a framework for the creation of a single Transport Regulator. South Africa needs a shared vision for the freight transport system that responds to the unique challenges confronting the country and the region.   Regulatory reform should then be targeted towards realising this vision.

47. 2.2 Future Plans of PRASAPassenger Transport Master Plan

48. PRASA Turn-Around Strategy • Implementing the Rail Plan Policy Framework of focusing on “A” and “B” corridors, through the PRASA Turn-around Strategy and Business Plan • TURN-AROUND STRATEGY: • Stabilisation Phase : 2007 – 2010 • Recovery Phase : 2010 – 2014 • Growth Phase : 2015 - 2030

49. National Urban Corridors Results (Existing Corridors) • “A” CORRIDORS, For Eaxmple • Umlazi – CBD – KwaMashu (incl Isipingo) • Soweto (Midway – New Canada – Kwaggastroom (Sebokeng) • Kraaifontein – Bellville – CBD (via Thornton and Monte Vista) • Daveyton – Germiston • Mabopane – Pretoria North – CBD • Khayelitsha – Cape Town (Incl Kapteinsklip – Phillipi) • “B” CORRIDORS, For Example • Olifantsfontein – Centurion – CBD (Pretoria) • Kwesine/Katlehong – Germiston • Saulsville/Attridgeville – CBD • Strand – Bellville – CBD • Vereeniging – Kwaggastroom • “C” CORRIDORS, For Example • De Wildt – Winternest – Pretoria North • Vereeniging – Kliprivier – Germiston • Worcester – Wellington - Kraaifontein • Duff’s Road – Stanger • Germiston – India – Kaserne West • Cato Ridge – Rossburg

50. Future Commuter Corridors ETHEKWINI , For Example Duff’s Road – CBD (Bridge City) Pinetown – N3 – CBD TSHWANE (NORTHERN GAUTENG) , For Example Ring Rail concept Hammanskraal – Pretoria North Mabopane Extension – Babelegi Link WITS (SOUTHERN GAUTENG) , For Example Daveyton – Etwatwa Kwezine - Zonkizizwe Kwesine – Angus Rietvallei – Roodepoort Baralink – Nasrec Lenz – Krugersdorp Johannesburg/Isando – Cor Delfos Springs – Rietfontein Houtheuwel - Randfontein WESTERN CAPE, For Example Blue Downs Links Atlantis Corridor and Link Cape Town International Airport Link EASTERN CAPE , For Example NELSON MANDELA Motherwell Loop Coega loop Motherwell – Uitenhage Connection BCM , For Example Mdantsane – Westbank Mdantsane – Re-alignment (Fort Jackson) Gonubie – Vincent/CBD Berlin – King Williams Town