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Towards a new procedure for EU population projections exercises Item 3.3 of the draft agenda

Towards a new procedure for EU population projections exercises Item 3.3 of the draft agenda. DSS Meeting 1 and 2 March 2018. The 2015 exercise. 2015-based projections released by Eurostat in February 2017

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Towards a new procedure for EU population projections exercises Item 3.3 of the draft agenda

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  1. Towards a new procedure for EU population projections exercisesItem 3.3 of the draft agenda DSS Meeting1 and 2 March 2018

  2. The 2015 exercise • 2015-based projections released by Eurostat in February 2017 • Answering the May 2015 mandate by the ECOFIN Council – population projections input to the Ageing Report (usually issued every 3 years) • Enhancement of the collaborative role of the WG on Population Projections • NSIs difficulties to share ownership of the EU projections

  3. What about the next round? • Action launched by Eurostat: discussion on the procedure for next projections • Large round of consultation (in progress) of primary players and stakeholders: NSIs, AWG, DG ECFIN • Assumption about next release: February 2020 at the latest (if 'business as usual') • New procedure to be in place as soon as possible

  4. Key messages from consultation - 1 • 'What-if' exercises and not forecasts • Co-ownership (national and ESS projections) can be problematic in case of significantly different assumptions • Users call for regular contacts at MSs level • Statistical independence • Common methodological approach involving WGPP and possibly additional expertise (with ESSC informed)

  5. Key messages from consultation - 2 • Demographic projections are an independent input to the AWG model • Time pressure – impact on resources • Users' need for an earlier release and thus earlier ESS agreement • Users appreciate the current reflection on the procedure

  6. Main features of next projections? • Projections are 'what-if' scenarios • Common ESS note on multiplicity of projections • Independent demographic exercise • Excludes AWG assumptions on demographics • WGPP remains the forum for technical exchanges on projections • More use of national consultative expert groups • Eurostat to present progress to the AWG and EPC • Proactivity and quick reactions needed

  7. Envisaged options for next round • Projections made by Eurostat (EUROPOP2018) • Eurostat takes full responsibility for the production • WGPP as consultative forum on EU projections • WGPP forum for exchange of national practices • Projections made by the ESS (ESSPOP2018) • Re-launch of the previous exercise (shared responsibility and decisions) • Enhanced collaboration: new system of task-forces • DSS and ESSC to support the final result

  8. Tentative workflow and timetable • Presented in the annex of the document • Dates provided are tentative: • release EUROPOP2018 by April 2019 • release ESSPOP2018 by February 2020 • Next step for the WGPP: • meeting scheduled for 16-17 May in Malta (to be confirmed in coming weeks) • agenda depending on the outcomes of DSS discussion

  9. The DSS Members are invited to: • provide any suggestions and comments, in particular on the key messages from the consultations and possible main features of the future projections; • indicate their preference regarding the envisaged options; • comment on the related timetable and workflow.

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