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RISI Outlook for North American Book Paper Markets

RISI Outlook for North American Book Paper Markets. John Maine Vice President May 2010. John Maine, VP World Graphic Papers, RISI, Inc. Co-Founder of Resource Information Systems, Inc. With RISI More Than 30 Years Developed RISI P&W Models Works With Over 200 Graphic Paper

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RISI Outlook for North American Book Paper Markets

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  1. RISI Outlook for North American Book Paper Markets John Maine Vice President May 2010

  2. John Maine, VP World Graphic Papers, RISI, Inc. • Co-Founder of Resource Information Systems, Inc. • With RISI More Than 30 Years • Developed RISI P&W Models • Works With Over 200 Graphic Paper Clients Worldwide • Assisted by 5 Local Economist in RISI Regional Offices • Directs Numerous Multi and Single-Client Studies on Graphic Paper

  3. US Climbing out of Deep Recession(Real GDP Growth, Annualized Percent Change)

  4. Key Paper End-Uses Have Collapsed • Newspaper Inserts • Struggling to find alternative distribution outside of collapsing newspaper market • Magazines • Both circulation and ad pages declining • Further losses coming due to e-readers • Catalogs • Circ will come back from 09, but still down long-term • Page counts falling • Postal costs will rise • Do not mail legislation to come?

  5. US Paper Demand in Major Paper End-Uses Collapsed in 2008 and 2009 (two-year loss)

  6. Indexes of Circulation – 2000Q1=1.00

  7. US Magazine Ad Pages on Long-Term “Stair-Step” Decline(Quarterly PIB Magazine Ad Page Index, 1982=1.0)

  8. Total Paper Usage in US Magazines, Catalogs, and Newspaper Inserts Combined (000 tons)

  9. Book Industry Sales Hold Up Well In Recession, Dropping only 2% per Year in 2008 and 2009 Book Industry Sales in Millions Souce: Amer. Publishers Assn.

  10. Sales of E-Books Exploding (Millions of dollars) Souce: Amer. Publishers Assn.

  11. But Sales of E-Books are Still Tiny Relative to Book Market (Millions of dollars) 1.3% of Sales Souce: Amer. Publishers Assn.

  12. US Imports of Printed Books Dropped 21% in 2009 to $2.0 Billion, but are Still up Sharply Compared With $1.4 Bill. in 1996 Value of Books Imported into the U.S., Million $ 8.4% of Book Industry Sales 10.6% of Book Industry Sales

  13. U.S. Imports of Printed Products from China Million Real 2009 Dollars

  14. Total Paper Usage in US Books (000 tons)

  15. Paper Use in US Books in 2009 by Type of Paper

  16. Paper Demand Surging in 2010, Despite Weak End-uses • All Major Measures of End-Use Activity are Down • Mag ad pages • Mail volumes • Catalog circulation • Commercial print activity • Yet, Paper Demand and Shipments are Recovering • Inventory swing • Gain in market share from imports

  17. US Producers Enjoyed a Rebound in Shipments in Late 2009, and Year-Over-Year Numbers Will Continue to Look Good in Early 2010, but Paper Demand is Still Low NA Coated Paper shipments, 000 tons per quarter Currently Comparing This To This

  18. North American P&W Demand by GradeMillion Tonnes, % Change 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Ctd. Freesheet * 6.1 5.3 4.0 4.1 4.2 %ch -8% -13% -24% 2% 3% Ctd. Mechanical 6.0 5.1 4.0 4.1 4.1 %ch 3% -15% -21% 2% 1% Unc. Freesheet * 12.4 11.4 10.0 9.9 9.8 %ch -5% -8% -12% -1% 0% Unc. Mechanical 6.2 6.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 %ch 2% -4% -17% 0% 3% Total 30.7 27.7 23.0 23.0 23.3 %ch -3% -10% -17% 0% 1% *Includes bristols and cotton

  19. North American Operating Rates – Coming Off the Lowest Ever Recorded for Coated Paper

  20. U.S. Publishing Paper Pricing by Quarter ($/short ton)

  21. Cost Pressures Come to Bear on Non-Integrated Mills (NBSK Market Pulp Price Delivered to Northern Europe $/tonne)

  22. Price Trends for LWC 40 lb. (60 gsm) ($US/short ton) European Price US Price Euro Price in Europe

  23. Price as a Percentage of Fully Weighted Costs 1 for Northern Mills Making 34 lb. LWC in Maine, Minnesota, and Wisconsin Including $100 revenue per ton of paper from black liquor credits 1 Fully weighted costs include delivery, SG&A, Interest, and Depreciation.

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