California Statewide Travel Demand Model

1. California Statewide Travel Demand Model California State Transportation Plan Technical Advisory Committee March 28, 2013 Ronald West Michelle Bina

2. Presentation Overview

3. Why Model?

4. Why Model? • Because you have to • SB 391 • RTP/RTIP requirements (SB 375) • New Starts (transit) • Air Quality conformity • Because you need to • Objective-based decision-making • Statewide/Regional/Sub-Area problem-solving • Managing the transportation system • Informs statewide modal plans • Inter-regional travel is a significant issue throughout California • Policy questions are increasingly complicated

5. SB 391 and SB 375 SB 391: “Require the CTP to identify the statewide integrated multimodal transportation system needed to achieve a statewide reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 and 80-percent below 1990 levels by 2050.” SB 375: Interregional Forecasts SB 375: SCSs from MPOs Cumulative impacts of SCSs throughout the State

6. History

7. Statewide Modeling History Continued HSR Model Improvements

8. Future Year No-Build Forecast Years

9. History

10. CSTDM System Inputs Models Outputs • Trip lists • Trip tables • Loaded network • Travel times and costs • Summary travel statistics • Maps • Graphs • Short-distance personal travel model (SDPTM) • Long-distance personal travel model (LDPTM) • Short-distance commercial vehicle model (SDCVM) • Long-distance commercial vehicle model (LDCVM) • External travel model (ETM) • Zone system • Road network • Transit network • Population • Employment • Other zonal properties

11. CSTDM Modes

12. 2020, 2035 and 2050 Socio-Econ Data/Networks • ULTRANS contract with HSRA to produce these datasets • Conscious effort between Caltrans and HSRA to not duplicate efforts • 2020 and 2035 Socio-Economic Data from MPOs • 2050 - From CA Department of Finance + Extrapolations • Completed April 2012 • Caused some delay to start of 2015 and 2040 Forecasts Project (Interim Forecasts Project)

13. CSTDM Interim Forecasts – 2015 and 2040 Create new socio-economic datasets Update networks and add zones 2015 and 2040 No-Project Forecasts Sensitivity Tests Completed January 2013

14. CSTDM Zones and Network (Current Model) • 53 external zones • 92,000+ nodes • 250,000+ links • Multi-modal 5454 internal zones (TAZ) currently5191 (from 2008 base year system) 5422 (from future year forecasts)

15. 2015 and 2040 Interim Forecasts • Year 2010 base year was required • 2008 base year did not accurately represent existing conditions

16. Historical Change in State Population by Decade 1950 to 2000 Just under 500,000 new residents added per year Numerical Change 2000 to 2010 338,000 new residents (Lower number likely due to recession starting in 2008) Percent Change Percent Change California’s rate of growth has been declining for decades

17. California Population – 2000, 2010 and 2040

18. Current CSTDM Socio-Economic Data Some Updating of Socio-Economic forecasts will be required

19. 2015/2040 Sensitivity Test: Increase Auto Operating Costs Shift in trips to transit and non-motorized modes (SDPTM) Decrease in total daily VMT

20. New Data

21. California Household Travel Survey Draft Data Tabulations from the CA Statewide Household Travel SurveyExcludes SRBI Surveys Collected in Los Angeles County

22. Base Year Model Development: Update Socioeconomic Data • Contains Information on Every Synthetic Household in California, including: • Household Size • Persons by Age • Employment • Income • Housing Type Run Population Synthesizer

23. Base Year Model Development: Update Socioeconomic Data Occupation • Agriculture/Mining • Construction • Manufacturing • Wholesale • Transportation/Utilities • Retail • Information • Finance/Insurance/Real Estate • Professional/Management/Administration • Education/Health • Arts/Entertainment/Recreation/Accommodation/Food Service • Other Service • Government • Management/Business • Professional/Technical • Education • Health • Service • Sales, Food, and Entertainment • Clerical • Blue Collar Industry

24. Planned Improvements

25. CSTDM Update Objectives • Improve model inputs (networks, network processing, TAZs) • Build on/improve the initial CSTDM • Key Objectives • 2015 CTP/ • Interregional Travel/ • Rural Analysis Needs • Enhance model credibility, access & usefulness • Leverage CHTS with – Census, NHTS, long-distance surveys

26. Base Year Model Development

27. California State Freight Forecasting Model Source: UC Irvine • Under development by UC Irvine • Commodity-based model • Forecasts the long haul flow of commodities and commercial vehicles on freight infrastructure as a function of socioeconomic conditions and infrastructure parameters

28. CSTDM Update Project Milestones Month 1 (July 2012) Kickoff CHTS Draft 2010, 2020, 2040 Model Draft 2015, 2030, 2050 Model Final Version of Model for all Years Month 10 (March 2013) Month 17 (October 2013) Month 20 (December 2013) Month 22 (March 2014)

29. History

30. CSTDM Future Forecasts for CTP Analyze several scenarios to obtain maximum feasible greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. A scenario will be defined as multiple surface transportation GHG reduction strategies. An example of a scenario would include a strategy or multiple strategies (e.g. VMT tax – the base (existing condition) would be no tax, moderately aggressive would be $.10 per mile and aggressive would be $.25 per mile). The CSTDM is currently being updated and is anticipated to be available Winter 2013/14.

31. CSTDM Update + CTP Forecasts Milestones CHTS Draft 2010, 2020, 2040 Model Draft 2015, 2030, 2050 Model Final Version of Model for all Years (March 2013) (October 2013) (December 2013) (February 2014) Final CTP Forecasts (~January 2015)

32. Q & A