How can education contribute to the recovery

1. How can education contribute to the recovery

2. Education builds social and human capital and creates knowledge. • And provides people with the skills they need to participate in the workforce. • So there are social and individual returns to education • The best returns to education come from educating younger people – so the costs of getting it wrong for youth are highest. • And unemployment is disproportionately borne by the young. • So we need a particular focus on youth.

3. Education is a major enterprise in Canterbury. • Before the earthquakes, the Canterbury education sector had operating revenue of $1.31 billion and employed 11,000 people • Public education organisations held about $1.32 billion in capital assets. • International education generated $200 million a year, had overall economic impact of $300 million and supported 2,000 jobs in the region • Tertiary institutions won $56 million a year in research contracts • Per capita, the tertiary sector in greater Christchurch enrolled more students than either Auckland or Wellington

4. In Christchurch now … there are extra risks • greater levels of disengagement from the education system and the labour market • too many young people are leaving education without qualifications and skills • and higher youth unemployment as the local economy readjusts • rationalisation in the industries that employ lower-skilled people means that it will get harder for those without qualifications to get work • the rebuild could see young people working in low skill jobs but vulnerable as the boom winds down • young people need portable skills

5. We need to • get the pathways through the education system working better • build understanding by education of employer needs and conversely • get more leverage from the knowledge and resources of our education system • build better links between the research community, firms and TEIs as a means of supporting industry and strengthening the local economy

6. This talk • Looks at the state of educational achievement and youth transitions in the region – as it was and is now • Identifies the labour market outcomes for young people • Explains what the education leaders in Canterbury are doing about it • Describes the challenges ahead of us • Looks at what we are coming up with in our renewal plan • First – Where are the young people in Christchurch? What are they doing?

8. School leaver achievement • Between 5,500 and 6,000 leavers each year • About 30% don’t get to level 2 – the minimum for recognition in the labour market • And for progression to meaningful higher education

9. School leavers • One in five school leavers has had no further training by age 20 • But double that for Māori and Pasifika • And for those with low school achievement • So those who need education most access it least • The graph shows the proportion of leavers from Christchurch schools who don’t go on to tertiary • Or who go on to programmes like the Youth Guarantee. • Key finding: most people who have low/no school achievement end up not doing tertiary education

10. School leaver achievement and destinations • Big variations between schools – and not all due to decile • Examples .... • In one school, only half of the 2009 leavers had NCEA 2 or higher • And 15% had no achievement • And of the no achievement leavers, 83% took no further education on leaving school • High risk of being NEET

11. School leaver achievement and destinations – variations between schools

12. How well does the system supply the local labour market? • A high number of tertiary completions • including industry training • The qualification profile of the population in the region is lower than NZ as a whole • More with trades qualifications, but fewer with degrees • So at higher levels, Christchurch is supplying the Auckland and Wellington labour markets

13. NEET and employment • Until now unemployment and NEET in Christchurch have been better than NZ as a whole • For all age groups • But recent trends are worrying • The graph shows the NEET rate for 20-24 year olds in the June quarters • September NEET data looks better but Canterbury is still rising, while NZ is falling

14. NEET and employment • Between September 2010 and September 2011 • The number of young people in Canterbury has fallen by 7% • The number in employment has dropped by 22% • The number not in the labour force is up 17% • The number in education has been stable • More in the school system balancing the fall off in tertiary enrolments • Overall message – more young people disengaged and more leaving the area

16. Key messages • The region has a skill profile little different from NZ as a whole • But the region doesn’t have the high skill/ high education/ high earnings levels of other metropolitan areas • NEET, unemployment have been better than NZ as a whole • But recent trends show deterioration • Mixed performance in the school system • Too many school leavers without adequate qualifications and skills • And high levels of disparity – Māori and Pasifika do worse • At higher qualification levels, Christchurch providers supply other labour markets • Lower tertiary enrolments in 2011 pose a high risk to future income streams • While providers face higher costs

17. The outlook • The CDC/DoL forecast model sees a short-term construction boom to deal with the residential repair/rebuild • With the commercial rebuild spread over a longer period • The education system is working to improve, increase and speed up training for the construction trades • We need to be sure: • There are sustainable careers for those we encourage into that pipeline • We don’t hollow out recruitment into the firms/industries our tradable sector depends on • We have clear and consistent messaging about the forecasts, the outlook for youth and the importance of education

18. We need • All school leavers to have level 2 NCEA or higher • so they have options for tertiary study • so they are more likely to be productive, even if they don’t want to get into tertiary study • and so their skills are more portable • More people getting higher qualifications in tertiary education • And better tertiary/employment linkages so Canterbury can capture more of the skills we produce • So we grow the base of skills in this community to ensure: • we sustain the tradable economy during the construction boom • we avoid the risk of reconstruction crowding out the production • those we get into construction have portable skills and qualifications

19. What are we doing about it

20. Important challenges for us • Better pathways and transitions – within education and between education and employment • Getting more from Youth Guarantee and trades academies • More active management of young people at risk – with earlier intervention • Better careers advice and support • Better understanding of employers’ needs by education and conversely • Leading to better alignment of supply and demand • More leverage from the knowledge and expertise resources of our education system • Better research/business/education links

21. We have made progress • More places for the trades academies – and a new approach to make sure training is more widely available • He Toki Ki Te Rika – a new Māori trades training initiative • Enhanced pre-tertiary bridging programmes • Canterbury job matcher portal – run by Careers NZ • New scholarships for Canterbury school leavers moving to tertiary study • Youth guarantee and vocational pathways through NCEA • The Government’s Skills for Canterbury package • And coming up … a new youth transition service for young people at risk

22. We have made progress • And NCEA results for Canterbury schools from 2011 look promising • Schools have faced great difficulties but have worked hard to manage the challenges they faced • But be careful … there may be selection effects at play

23. But challenges remain • We need to encourage people to stay longer in school, getting higher qualifications and more skills • That will sustain them beyond the construction boom • Reconstruction is necessary for recovery, but we need to keep developing the skills needed for the long-term growth and development of the economy – the industries that will sustain us in the longer term • We need avoid the risk that reconstruction crowds out the real productive sectors • We need the active support of the business community

24. The education renewal/recovery plan • Possible proposals cover: • More collaboration and coordination across the system • Collaboration in capital planning → shared use of facilities • Look for areas to rationalise where there is duplication • Cost reductions without loss of quality • Better education/work links • Including employers committing to training for unskilled employees • And better business/university research links • To capture more research funding, building on our strengths • Collaborative marketing of Christchurch as an education city • Domestic and international • Create a shared private tertiary campus as part of the rebuild • A new approach to managing youth at risk • Earlier intervention and better information sharing

25. Partnership with business leaders Better business/education links: • If you employ a young person without skills or qualifications, we want you to support that person in training • Internships for secondary/tertiary students? • Make better use of local tertiary institutions when you recruit? • Partnerships with local tertiary institutions • Research contracts related to developing your business? • Providing skills when you look at opportunities for expansion/investment? • A private tertiary education facility – an investment opportunity?