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Global Challenges for the 21 st Century

Global Challenges for the 21 st Century. Dr. Hongjoo Hahm World Bank Office Croatia. Challenge 1: Scarcity of Resources. (Constant Birth Rate Scenario). In the next 40 years, the global population will grow by almost 2.5 billion. and more than half of those will live in developing

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Global Challenges for the 21 st Century

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  1. Global Challenges for the 21st Century Dr. Hongjoo Hahm World Bank Office Croatia

  2. Challenge 1: Scarcity of Resources

  3. (Constant Birth Rate Scenario)

  4. In the next 40 years, the global population will grow by almost 2.5 billion and more than half of those will live in developing countries Population World Population 1950 – 2050 (Medium Case) Source: UNPD 2007

  5. IIIIII Washington Post

  6. Washington Post

  7. Gapminder Fertility vs. Income per capita

  8. Gapminder Fertility vs. Girl’s Education

  9. World Urban Population In 1950, 68% of world’s population from developing countries In 2010, 85% of world population from developing countries In 2008, one-half50%of the world’s people lived in cities By 2050, two-thirds66% of the world’s people will live in cities Source: UNHSP/Basics1/02

  10. An Urban World 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 POPULATION IN BILLIONS 2 4 6 8 10 URBAN DEVELOPING URBANDEVELOPED RURAL IIIIII

  11. Global Population Density by 2015 IIIIII Source: Poverty Mapping Urban Rural Population Database, United Nations FAO, 2005

  12. Urbanization: Mega-Cities • Megacities today • Cover just 2% of the Earth’s land surface • 75% of industrial wood use • 60% of human water use • Nearly 80% of all human produced carbon emissions • Megacities tomorrow • By 2025 more than 300 cities worldwide will have more than 1 million people • The struggle to achieve an environmentally sustainable economy for the 21st century will be won or lost in the world's urban areas Map source: www.channelone.com IIIIII Source: www3.sympatico.ca/truegrowth/demographics.htm

  13. Global Population: Rising Demand for Resources • Too Many (especially in developing world) • Too Old (especially in developed world) • Too Urban (globally) • Global Migration

  14. Population and Human Development Needs Of 6.5 billion people in the world today 1.6 billion lack basic energy services 2.5 billion use wood, dung or other biomass to cook their food 2.6 billion people lack access to clean water and sanitation By 2050, almost 2.5 billion people will be born. Is there enough to go around? IIIIII

  15. Resources

  16. Scarce resources

  17. Global Water Scarcity UNEP IIIIII

  18. IIIIII

  19. http://www.albertapcf.ab.ca/grasslands/images/library/mixed/Irrigation.JPGhttp://www.albertapcf.ab.ca/grasslands/images/library/mixed/Irrigation.JPG http://photogallery.nrcs.usda.gov/Index.asp IIIIII

  20. How Much? 1 kg of lettuce 174 liters 1 kg of tomatoes 174 liters 1 kg of potatoes 180 liters 1 kg of wheat 188 liters 1 kg of carrots 250 liters 1 kg of apples 370 liters 1 kg of chicken 6,170 liters 1 kg of pork 12,340 liters IIIIII University of California

  21. - 1/3 of arable land used for cattle grazing.- 1/3 of methane produced by cows- 1/3 of grain produced used for cow fodder One kilogram of grain-fed beef needs at least 22,710 liters of water IIIIII

  22. the greenhouse gas emissions arising every year from the production and consumption of cheeseburgers is roughly the amount emitted by 6.5 million to 19.6 million SUVs

  23. "In a world where an estimated one in every six people goes hungry every day, the politics of meat consumption are increasingly heated, since meat production is an inefficient use of grain …... Continued growth in meat output is dependent on feeding grains to animals, creating competition for grain between affluent meat eaters and the world's poor.” Worldwatch Institute IIIIII

  24. Keeping Up? IIIIII Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows: LTG 30 year update 2004

  25. Losing Focus on Food Production Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development; International Rice Research Institute; US Department of Agriculture; Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations; via the World Bank. Via the New York Times IIIIII

  26. Food vs. Energy Source: Commodity Research Bureau IIIIII

  27. The TimesMarch 7, 2008‘Rush for bio fuels threatens starvation on a global scale’ In 2010, more than 1/3 of US corn acreage was earmarked for bio ethanol IIIIII

  28. Estimated growth in fertilizer use 1960-2020 IIIIII

  29. Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal

  30. Forest cover 1996 Deforestation Forests Likely to Survive Without Human Assistance Source: Bryant. D., Nielsen. D. and Tangeley. L. (1997) IIIIII

  31. Satellite image of Global Burning with inset of Indonesia taken 2009 *Source: ATSR Fire Atlas, European Space Agency

  32. Primary energy consumption

  33. Primary Energy Consumption

  34. Fossil fuel use Source: EIA

  35. ‘Peak’ Oil IIIIII

  36. Proven oil reserves

  37. World Oil Consumption

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