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Modeling and Simulation Challenges and the New Vehicle NRA

Modeling and Simulation Challenges and the New Vehicle NRA. Ken Wright Sensis Corporation January 28, 2010. Analyze the combined impacts of advanced vehicles and NextGen. Background. Vehicles. Cruise @ M 1.6 41k ft to 53k ft. SST. CESTOL. Cruise @ M 0.78, 35k – 40k ft.

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Modeling and Simulation Challenges and the New Vehicle NRA

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  1. Modeling and Simulation Challenges and the New Vehicle NRA Ken WrightSensis Corporation January 28, 2010

  2. Analyze the combined impacts of advanced vehicles and NextGen Background

  3. Vehicles Cruise @ M 1.6 41k ft to 53k ft SST CESTOL Cruise @ M 0.78, 35k – 40k ft Cruise @ M 0.6, 35k ft VLJ Cruise @ M 0.5, 25k ft UAS LCTR Cruise @ M 0.28, 15k ft 400 nm 750 nm 1200 nm 2000 nm 4000 nm

  4. Background (Continued) • Timeframe • 2025 • 2040 (roughly 2 times today’s traffic levels) • 3X (3 times today’s traffic levels) • Tasks • Design vehicles • Develop usage scenarios • Compute delay • Compute environmental impacts • Compute metroplex impacts • Compute safety impacts • And much more

  5. Model Infrastructure

  6. To do NAS-wide simulation in ACES we need: BADA Data Schedules/Capacities ACES tracks used by AEDT to compute environmental impact The Focus of this Presentation is ACES

  7. General Modeling Simulation Observations • Designing good experiments is tough • Results often seem obvious • Difficult to translate concepts into hypotheses that leverage model strengths • Difficult to spot erroneous results • Large datasets, complex interactive models • Figuring what’s going on below the surface is difficult • Some modules don’t work well with large datasets • Results not significantly impacted • New features can increase run time, without affecting results • ACES 5.0 vs ACES 6.2 compatibility issues

  8. Challenge: Demand Generation

  9. JPDO-Provided Demand Sets

  10. Huge delays at LAS and ATL due to capacity-demand imbalance dominatesystemwide-results

  11. ACES-Specific Observations • MPAS (physics model) currently can’t fly unconventional vehicles • Cruise-Efficient STOL Aircraft (cruises too slow) • Supersonic transport (cruises too fast) • Tiltrotor (takes off like a helicopter) • Tail-tracking • Terminal area tracks • Conflict Detection and Resolution • Weather obstacles (Back-up)

  12. Tail-Tracking • One-third of all delay is propagated delay • ACES tail-tracking doesn’t quite work

  13. Sensis Itinerary-Creation Algorithm gives 5-6 Stages per Airframe

  14. Increase in delay due to tail-tracking too small to be realistic

  15. Aircraft is in two placesat the same time 1 2 3 4

  16. Short flights show discontinuous tracks • Flights having great circle distance less than about 60 nm fly discontinuous “X” routes • Affects 3,000 to 3,500 ACES flights in 2040 dataset (about 3.5% of total) • Because flights fly longer routes than necessary, amount of time spent airborne is too long.

  17. Flight from TEB to LGA is Airborne for 31 Minutes. Average speed = 21 mph

  18. Conflict Detection and Resolution • Not used in New Vehicle project • Causes about as many conflicts as it resolves

  19. CDR Causes Collision

  20. CDR Causes Collision

  21. CDR Causes Collision

  22. CDR Causes Collision

  23. CDR Causes Collision

  24. CDR Causes Collision

  25. CDR Causes Collision

  26. CDR Causes Collision

  27. CDR Causes Collision

  28. CDR Causes Collision

  29. CDR Causes Collision

  30. CDR Causes Collision

  31. CDR Causes Collision

  32. CDR Causes Collision

  33. CDR Causes Collision

  34. CDR Causes Collision

  35. CDR Causes Collision

  36. CDR Causes Collision

  37. CDR Causes Collision

  38. CDR Causes Collision

  39. CDR Causes Collision Aircraft sense impending 5-nm conflict

  40. CDR Causes Collision Aircraft move to avoid 5-nm conflict

  41. CDR Causes Collision Aircraft move to avoid 5-nm conflict

  42. CDR Causes Collision Boom!

  43. CDR Causes Collision

  44. CDR Causes Collision

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