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Participation in MAP D-PHASE / COPS

Participation in MAP D-PHASE / COPS. Description of MAP D-PHASE project Implementation strategy Key relevant features of GEM v3.3.0 Overview of verification opportunities Generation of experimental products Prototyping / proof-of-concept for Vancouver 2010 Olympics project.

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Participation in MAP D-PHASE / COPS

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  1. Participation in MAP D-PHASE / COPS • Description of MAP D-PHASE project • Implementation strategy • Key relevant features of GEM v3.3.0 • Overview of verification opportunities • Generation of experimental products • Prototyping / proof-of-concept for Vancouver 2010 Olympics project

  2. MAP D-PHASE Project • WMO-designated forecast demonstration project for the Swiss/German Alps region • Main emphasis is on QPF and flood forecasting • DOP: 1 June – 30 November Canadian contribution: 1x daily high resolution (2.5km) 24h forecasts for the D-PHASE region

  3. MAP D-PHASE Project • Both deterministic and low/high resolution ensembles will be run by various centers: • Ensembles: MOGREPS (UKMet), INM Multi-model (Spain), COSMO-LEPS (ECMWF), MICRO-PEPS (DWD) • Deteministic: GEM (Canada), MOLOCH (Italy), AROME (France), MM5 (Universities) • Numerous hydrological models will be run either coupled or in offline mode

  4. MAP D-PHASE Project • The MAP D-PHASE integrations will also be used by other related projects: • MICRO-PEPS: A German proposal to combine high resolution (> 3km) results into an ensemble for the DOP • COPS: GEM will be one of the 5 high resolution models used for COPS mission planning – plots are delivered daily to the COPS operations centre • These collaborations will enhance verification efforts

  5. MAP D-PHASE Project Verification (COPS data and model intercomparison) Prototype / Proof-of-Concept (Preparation for Vancouver 2010 Olympics) Experimental Products (New strategies for high resolution NWP)

  6. Implementation Plan

  7. Key Features of GEM 3.3.0 • “Hollow cube” initialization parallelizes nesting and improves delivery time by >1h for GEM-LAM2.5 grids – this feature is mandatory for timely delivery during MAP D-PHASE • Nested M-Y microphysics implements a state-of-the-art multicategory bulk parameterization • “Growing orography” reduces gravity wave generation during the initialization shock

  8. M-Y Microphysics K-Y overpredicts in the lee of the Cascade Mts. M-Y produces improved precip distribution

  9. Growing Orography • Reduced shock during high resolution mountain runs eliminates much vertical motion noise Standard Nesting Growing Orography cross-section along idealized ridge line

  10. D-PHASE Test Period L GFS analysis (18 h before initialization) SLP (magenta), 1000-500 thickness (orange) and 250 hPa wind speed (colour bar)

  11. D-PHASE Test Period L GFS analysis (initialization time) SLP (magenta), 1000-500 thickness (orange) and 250 hPa wind speed (colour bar)

  12. D-PHASE Test Period GFS analysis (18h before initialization) 700 hPa Nondivergent wind (yellow) and streamfunction (orange)

  13. D-PHASE Test Period GFS analysis (initialization time) 700 hPa Nondivergent wind (yellow) and streamfunction (orange)

  14. D-PHASE Test Period GFS analysis (initialization time) 700 hPa potential temperature (coloured lines) and winds, and coupling index

  15. D-PHASE Test Period Hourly precipitation accumulation – 15 May

  16. D-PHASE Test Period Hourly precipitation accumulation – 15 May

  17. D-PHASE Test Period Hourly precipitation accumulation – 15 May

  18. D-PHASE Test Period Hourly precipitation accumulation – 15 May

  19. D-PHASE Test Period Hourly precipitation accumulation – 15 May

  20. D-PHASE Test Period Hourly precipitation accumulation – 15 May

  21. D-PHASE Test Period Hourly precipitation accumulation – 15 May

  22. D-PHASE Test Period Radar Reflectivity – 15 May

  23. D-PHASE Test Period Eumetsat IR image for 1100 UTC 15 May

  24. D-PHASE Test Period 6h precipitation accumulation – 15 May

  25. D-PHASE Verification • Common critisism of GEM-LAM2.5 products is a lack of objective verification measures • D-PHASE / COPS provide a unique set of verification opportunities: • COPS observations (10 aircraft, microphysical instrumentation) • European / German / Swiss observing network (over 800 evenly-distributed gauges) • Model intercomparison (12 high resolution models are being run at least once daily) • WG-VER is designing a subjective forecaster verification toolkit for use during D-PHASE

  26. D-PHASE Verification • Fuzzy high resolution QPF verification: • QPF Feature identification and displacement calculation • Threshold-based structure / amplitude /location (SAL) score • Objective comparison with enhanced resolution (4 km) surface analyses • traditional scores are compared in a neighbour-hood instead of at a point Sample Fuzzy-verified ETS from the Swiss Alpine Model (aLMo)

  27. D-PHASE Summary The MAP D-PHASE project will serve as an Olympics testbed for high resolution NWP: • Leverages recent developments designed to improve performance in mountains • Investigates the utility of new guidance products (e.g. high resolution ensemble) • Provides a unique verification opportunity: • enhanced observations during DOP • intercomparison / new verification techniques

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