Nunn-McCurdy Certification

1. Nunn-McCurdy Certification National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) Brief for House Committee on Science National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration June 7, 2006

2. 05 06 07 08 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 09 Certified NPOESS Program Overview Resources CALENDAR YEAR (TY$) FY2006-2013 Surplus/(Shortfall)*: ($84M) Total Acquisition Cost: $11.5B End of Constellation Service Life: 2026+ *Comparing PB 07 and 3% inflation FY12-13 AM F13 C4 F19 F20 F17 C2 M mid-AM F16 F18 Metop D Metop A Metop C Metop B C3 PM N N’ C1 NPP AQUA Sensor Configuration Description • NPOESS bus sized to carry full sensor configuration • Constellation of 2 EMD and 2 Production satellites • Terminate CMIS; Compete new Microwave Imager/Sounder starting with C2 • NOAA/NASA forecasting models and selected climate continuity preserved • Restructuring of NGST contract required; Renegotiation of NGST fee • All secondary sensor integration planned and budgeted for • DoD will lose day/night imagery in mid-AM for up to 8 years Gap duration contingent upon satellite performance • Contractor and government management continuity preserved • Core Sensors • AM: VIIRS, Microwave Image/Sounder, • SARSAT • PM: VIIRS, Microwave Imager/Sounder • (C3), SARSAT, CrIS, ATMS, • ADCS, CERES (C1),OMPS-Nadir, • SEM, ACDS • GFESensors • APS, TSIS, OMPS-Limb, ERBS, Full SESS, SUSS

3. Decision Drivers • Continuity • Lower Risk • Growth Potential • Affordability

4. Management Recommendations • Reviews • Complete an Integrated Baseline Review with all issues closed (12 months after cert) • Develop Effective MoA with DCMA supporting periodic joint surveillance reviews (including subcontractors), EVM analysis, and periodic estimate-at-completion updates (3 months after cert) • Contract Strategy • Implement DOD Award Fee policy as stated in 3/29/2006 memo, “Award Fee Contracts” • Revise award fee plan to specify effective incentives for achieving program goals (DOC IG recommendation) • Personnel • Fill vacant positions at IPO • Consider hiring a single highly qualified instrument manager for key sensors SE • Systems Engineering (SE) • Apply risk avoidance lessons-learned and develop alternate solutions/off-ramps for technical margins management • Establish a process to track progress and closure of recommendations from deep dives • Subcontract Management / Sustainment / Support • Update the Logistics Support Plan/Product Support Management Plan by Sep 06 • Develop plan by Sep 06 addressing Diminishing Manufacturing Sources/parts obsolescence • Tri-Agency Management • Describe EXCOM / PEO / SPD day-to-day communications and key decisions process in a tri-agency MOA • Segregate responsibilities for program management and fee determination officer (DOC IG recommendation) • Develop management process to examine cost and performance trades • Obtain and review regular, independent evaluations of program status that thoroughly assess progress toward completing high-risk or otherwise critical tasks (DOC IG recommendation)

5. Preserves Weather Forecasting Capability Improvements • Afternoon orbit contains advanced imager and advanced sounder to enhance weather forecasting • Reliance upon METOP in mid-morning orbit • AVHRR vs VIIRS: preserves imagery resolution • METOPscatterometer and advanced atmospheric sounder enhance operational weather forecasting capability in mid morning orbit • Reduced microwave imager/sounder: no impact on civil weather mission–wind speed and direction requirements preserved • No microwave imager/sounder on C1 • METOP scatterometer for ocean winds and waves becomes primary instrument until new imager/sounder is available on C2 • Continue reliance on DMSP for ocean wind speed

6. NOAA Impacts & Mitigation Strategy • CMIS: Ocean wind speed and direction • Mitigation: Rely on MetOp and DMSP • SESS: Space Environment Monitor • Mitigation: Fly POES operational SEM instrument • No loss from present capability on POES • APS: Aerosol data for air quality forecasts and role of aerosols in climate; • Mitigation: NASA still to fly first APS in this decade • ALT: Characterization of sea surface heights; • Mitigation: Navy developing mitigation plan for altimetry • ERBS: provides ability to understand changes in the Earth’s radiation budget • Mitigation: Fly NASA CERES research instrument on C1 • Not flown on NOAA polar satellites today • TSIS: ability to understand changes in solar irradiance • Not flown on NOAA satellites

7. Maximizing longevity of NOAA constellation • NOAA N-Prime satellite launched delayed to 2009 to replace NOAA-18 • Continue to rely on NOAA/EUMETSAT partnership on MetOp in mid-AM orbit • NPP satellite launched in 2009 provides imaging, sounding, and ozone backup for operational NOAA mission • Use of still functioning instruments of older NOAA satellites