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Fall 2011 Economic Survey

Fall 2011 Economic Survey. Participation. 33 CEBI Members 26 Non-Members. Industry Distribution. Company Size. Expected 2011 Results. 2012 Outlook. 2013 Expectations. Composite. 74%. 26%. 2011 Forecast (vs. 2010). 90%. 10%. 2012 Forecast (vs. 2011). Negative Impacts.

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Fall 2011 Economic Survey

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  1. Fall 2011 Economic Survey

  2. Participation • 33 CEBI Members • 26 Non-Members

  3. Industry Distribution

  4. Company Size

  5. Expected 2011 Results

  6. 2012 Outlook

  7. 2013 Expectations

  8. Composite

  9. 74% 26% 2011 Forecast (vs. 2010)

  10. 90% 10% 2012 Forecast (vs. 2011)

  11. Negative Impacts 23 companies w/Flat or Down 2011 Earnings Other:Price Pressure Raw Mtl. Costs Federal Govt. State Budgets < New Prod Dev

  12. Expected Upturn Quarter

  13. Earnings Improvement Factors Other: New Products/Services New Markets Expand Geography Cap. Exp. – SB Loan Concierge Service

  14. 45% 55% Likelihood of Recession (next 2-3 quarters) 2012 Avg. or Better = 76% 2013 Avg. or Better = 76%

  15. What Have You Learned? • Ignore Media & Govt. – Follow your own indicators • Watch for changes, good or bad = opportunities • Cull the Herd – bottom 10% • Act sooner, rather than later • Acquisition of weaker competitors • Pay down debt, don’t count on banks, cash is king • In Information Age, things change faster than ever • Conservative capital and expense plans, watch receivables, fixed costs

  16. What Have You Learned? • Improve productivity through technology • Sales cycles lengthen – step up sales activity • Watch inventories, but don’t understock (recovery) • Invest in innovation, R&D • Maintain customer service performance

  17. CEBI Helped • Health care cost reduction • Explore different channels, including Web • Product/service diversification • Peer lending, heads-up on tightening credit • Focus on systems and processes • Members’ perspective on “real” economy • Cost reduction strategies • Strategies for dealing with banks

  18. Summary • “CEBI 2012 Confidence Index” = .88 (38 up, 5 dn) • “CEBI 2012 Growth Index” Mean = +10% • “CEBI 2012 Profit Index” Mean = +10%

  19. Fall 2011 Economic Survey

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