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Application: Diagnosis

Representation. Probabilistic Graphical Models. Bayesian Networks. Application: Diagnosis. Medical Diagnosis: Pathfinder (1992). Help pathologist diagnose lymph node pathologies (60 different diseases) Pathfinder I: Rule-based system

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Application: Diagnosis

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  1. Representation Probabilistic Graphical Models Bayesian Networks Application: Diagnosis

  2. Medical Diagnosis: Pathfinder (1992) • Help pathologist diagnose lymph node pathologies (60 different diseases) • Pathfinder I: Rule-based system • Pathfinder II used naïve Bayes and got superior performance Heckerman et al.

  3. Medical Diagnosis: Pathfinder (1992) • Pathfinder III: Naïve Bayes with better knowledge engineering • No incorrect zero probabilities • Better calibration of conditional probabilities • P(finding | disease1) to P(finding | disease2) • Not P(finding1 | disease) to P(finding2 | disease) Heckerman et al.

  4. Medical Diagnosis: Pathfinder (1992) • Pathfinder IV: Full Bayesian network • Removed incorrect independencies • Additional parents led to more accurate estimation of probabilities • BN model agreed with expert panel in 50/53 cases, vs 47/53 for naïve Bayes model • Accuracy as high as expert that designed the model Heckerman et al.

  5. CPCS # of parameters: 21000to 133,931,430 to 8254 Pradhan et al.

  6. Medical Diagnosis (Microsoft)

  7. - Medical Diagnosis (Microsoft)

  8. Fault Diagnosis • Microsoft troubleshooters

  9. Fault Diagnosis • Many examples: • Microsoft troubleshooters • Car repair • Benefits: • Flexible user interface • Easy to design and maintain

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