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SIMPOSIO DE GEOLOGIA

Aumento en el Nivel del Mar Alrededor de Puerto Rico Aurelio Mercado Departamento de Ciencias Marinas/ Programa Sea Grant/UPRM. SIMPOSIO DE GEOLOGIA. Universidad de Puerto Rico Recinto de Mayaguez 28 de febrero de 2012. Data Processing:

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SIMPOSIO DE GEOLOGIA

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  1. Aumento en el Nivel del Mar Alrededor de Puerto Rico Aurelio Mercado Departamento de Ciencias Marinas/Programa Sea Grant/UPRM SIMPOSIO DE GEOLOGIA Universidad de Puerto Rico Recinto de Mayaguez 28 de febrerode 2012

  2. Data Processing: • Gap filling by Singular Spectrum Analysis (Kondrashov, D., and M. Ghil, 2006. Spatio-temporal filling of missing points in geophysical data sets. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 13:151-159.) • Filtering (lowess, running weighted averages) • TrendAnalysis • SSA is a nonparametric method. It tries to overcome the problems of finite sample length and noisiness of sampled time series not by fitting an assumed model to the available series, but by using a data-adaptive basis set. • (http://www.atmos.ucla.edu/tcd/ssa/) http://www.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/data_menu.shtml?type=Historic+Tide+Data&mstn=9759110 (Magueyes) http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/data_menu.shtml?bdate=20110601&edate=20110731&wl_sensor_hist=W5&relative=&datum=4&unit=0&shift=d&stn=9755371+San+Juan%2C+PR&type=Historic+Tide+Data&format=View+Data\ (San Juan)

  3. GAP FILLING WITH SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS Kondrashov, D., and M. Ghil, 2006. Spatio-temporal filling of missing points in geophysical data sets. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 13:151-159. 23 missing points

  4. Science News (Aug 13, 2011) • Sulfur from coal-burning power plants in Asia was mainly to blame for the decrease in rate of warming of the atmosphere between 1998 and 2008 (Kaufman et al. 2011-PNAS). • El Niño (which releases heat from the ocean back into the atmosphere) and deep circulation in the North Atlantic (which can bury heat at greater depths) combined starting in 2003, keeping excess heat out of the upper ocean (Science News, Aug 13, 2011).

  5. Nineteenth and TwentiethCentury Changesin Sea Level By Philip L . Woodworth, W. Roland Gehre, and R . Steven Nerem OCEANOGRAPHY V 24, No 2, 2011

  6. SLR: Observations - Land - Global ~ 1930 --> 1980: 1.8 +/- 0.3 mm/yr Overall: 1.7 mm/yr

  7. LA EVIDENCIA

  8. LS SJ 1.64 mm/yr • LS MA 1.50 mm/yr • Global LS 1.7 mm/yr

  9. ¿SE ESTA ACELERANDO?

  10. SLR: Observations - Satellite – Global (note the large regional variability)

  11. Projections: Contemporary Sea LevelRise. AnnyCazenave and William Llovel. Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci. 2010. 2:145–73

  12. Projections:

  13. Projections:

  14. Projections:

  15. ZMT????????????????????????????? ¿SON PUBLICAS LAS PLAYAS DE LA ISLA?

  16. I. ¿CUAL ES EL ARGUMENTO? LA EVIDENCIA

  17. III. EJEMPLOS Madeira Apartments, Ultimo Trolley Criterio: mareaalta (¿o debajo del agua?)

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