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Les politiques environnementales et énergétiques aux États-Unis : défis et paradoxes

Les politiques environnementales et énergétiques aux États-Unis : défis et paradoxes. Pierre-Olivier Pineau Professeur titulaire, HEC Montréal CÉRIUM École d’été 2013 Les États-Unis dans un tourbillon de crises : déclin ou adaptation ? 3744 Jean-Brillant salle 580-32

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Les politiques environnementales et énergétiques aux États-Unis : défis et paradoxes

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  1. Les politiques environnementales et énergétiques aux États-Unis : défis et paradoxes Pierre-Olivier Pineau Professeur titulaire, HEC Montréal CÉRIUM École d’été 2013 Les États-Unis dans un tourbillon de crises : déclin ou adaptation ? 3744 Jean-Brillant salle 580-32 Mercredi 10 juillet 2013 – 13h30 - 16h30

  2. Pétrole et gaz naturel aux États-Unis1973-2012 (+importations pétrole 2012) Millions de p3 2,9 mb/j 1,3 mb/j Pierre-Olivier Pineau EIA (2013)

  3. Consommation d’énergie aux É-U (2011) Pierre-Olivier Pineau EIA (2013)

  4. Plan de la présentation • Pétrole et gaz naturel aux États-Unis • Défis des changements climatiques • Politiques environnementales Pierre-Olivier Pineau

  5. Auto-suffisance énergétique IEA (2012) Pierre-Olivier Pineau

  6. Sources anticipées de réduction des importations de pétrole aux É-U IEA (2012) Pierre-Olivier Pineau

  7. Types de pétrole «Pétrolede réservoirsétanches» (Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage) In-situ/Mining «Schiste bitumineux» Source: Canadian Society for Unconventional Resources Understanding Tight Oil

  8. Oil Shale / Schistebitumineux Oil shale (also known as kerogenshale) … can be processed to obtain shale oil More than 3,500 billion barrels of oil shale resources originally in place throughout the world (≈120 years of current consumption) Wikipedia & WEO (2010:168)

  9. Major basins with potential tight oil developments CSUR

  10. UnconventionalOil: TightOil • “U.S. doubles oil estimate for Bakkenfield”, CBC News (May 2, 2013) http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2013/05/02/business-bakken-oil.html • United States Geological Survey: • 3.6 bb of oil , technically recoverable (2008) • 7.4 billion barrels of oil (2013) (20 years of production at 1 million b/d) • Since 2008, more than 4,000 wells drilled • 6.7 trillion cubic feet of undiscovered, technically recoverable natural gas

  11. Increasing US Tight Oil Production US EIA (2012)

  12. Tight oil & Gulf of Mexico deepwater drive projected increases in U.S. crude oil production US EIA (2012)

  13. Bakken Export Capacity Rail is about 3 times more expansive / barrel US EIA (2013)

  14. Bakken Oil Price versus WTI US EIA (2013)

  15. Western Canada Select (WCS) versus WTI & Maya $43 discount compared to Maya (a Mexican benchmark for heavy crude oil) Alberta (2013)

  16. Keystone pipeline system • 1,179-mile (1,897 km) • 36-inch-diameter • 830,000 b/d • ≈$10/barrel vs. $30 for rail TransCanada (2013)

  17. Capacité de transport versus production projetée de pétrole CAPP (2013) Pierre-Olivier Pineau

  18. US production of Shale Gas(2000-2013) Billion cubicfeet per day Pineau / HEC Montréal EIA (2013)

  19. Growth in total US gas production Trillion cubicfeet (per year) Pineau / HEC Montréal EIA (2013)

  20. Average Shale Gas Well Production Rate Pineau / HEC Montréal EIA (2013)

  21. Foreuses actives aux É-U IEA (2012 )

  22. 2. Défis des changements climatiques

  23. EPA (2013) Pierre-Olivier Pineau

  24. Émissions de GES aux É-U en 2011 Protoxyde d’azote Oxydenitreux Gaz fluorés Émissionstotales en 2011 6,702 Millions de tonnes de CO2-equivalent Pierre-Olivier Pineau

  25. Sources d’émission de CO2, CH4 et N2O CH4 CO2 N2O Pierre-Olivier Pineau

  26. Émissions de GES par gaz aux É-U 1990-2011 Million EPA (2013) Pierre-Olivier Pineau

  27. Risquesenvironmentaux de la fracturationhydraulique IEA (2012)

  28. Besoins en eau par unité de gaz naturel produit (m3 / terajoule) IEA (2012)

  29. The role of various substances in the hydraulic fracturing process Friction reducers—Minimize friction in the well. Biocides—Eliminate bacteria that produce corrosive by-products. Solvents—Extract impurities from natural gas and are used for clearing and de-icing. Surfactants—Increase the viscosity of the fracturing fluid. Scale inhibitors—Prevent deposits from forming in the well and surface equipment. Acids—Dissolve minerals and initiate cracks in the rock formation. AGC (2012)

  30. Methane emissions along the gas value chain • Intentional venting of gas for safety or economic reasons. Venting during well completions falls into this category, but venting can also take place as part of equipment maintenance operations. • Fugitive emissions. These might be leaks in pipelines, valves or seals, whether accidental (e.g. corrosion in pipelines) or built into the equipment design (e.g. rotating seals, open tanks). • Incidents involving rupture of confining equipment (pipelines, pressurised tanks, well isolation). • Incomplete burning. The effectiveness of gas burning in gas flares varies according to wind and other conditions and is typically no better than 98%. IEA (2012)

  31. Upstream GHG Emissions from Shale Gas, by Life Cycle Stage WRI (2013)

  32. A Simplified Life Cycle Process Map WRI (2013)

  33. WRI (2013)

  34. Golden Rules 1 • Measure, disclose and engage • Engage with local communities, residents and other stakeholders into each phase of a development • Establish baselines for key environmental indicators • Measure and disclose operational data on water use on methane and other air emissions. • Minimise disruption during operations, taking a broad view of social and IEA (2012)

  35. Golden Rules 2 • Watch where you drill • Choose well sites so as to minimise impacts • Properly survey the geology of the area • Monitor to ensure that hydraulic fractures do not extend beyond the gas producing formations. • Isolate wells and prevent leaks • Put in place robust rules on well design, construction, cementing and integrity testing. • Consider appropriate minimum-depth limitations • Take action to prevent and contain surface spills and leaks from wells, and to ensure that any waste fluids and solids are disposed of properly. IEA (2012)

  36. Golden Rules 3 • Treat water responsibly • Reduce freshwater use by improving operational efficiency; reuse or recycle • Store and dispose of produced and waste water safely. • Minimise use of chemical additives • Eliminate venting, minimise flaring and other emissions • Target zero venting and minimal flaring of natural gas during well completion and seek to reduce fugitive and vented GHG emissions during • Minimise air pollution from vehicles, drilling rig engines, pump engines and compressors. IEA (2012)

  37. Golden Rules 4 • Be ready to think big • Seek opportunities for realising the economies of scale and co-ordinated development • Take into account the cumulative and regional effects of multiple drilling and production • Ensure a consistently high level of env. performance • Back output by sufficient permitting and compliance staff, and reliable public information. • Appropriate balance in policy-making between prescriptive regulation and performance-based regulation • Robust emergency response plans. • Continuous improvement of practices. • Independent evaluation and verification of env. perf. IEA (2012)

  38. US EIA (2010)

  39. Consommation de pétrolemondialeMillion b/j (2000-2012) 2000-2011 +14.1% -13.3% +13.7% -3.8% -23.7% US EIA (2013)

  40. 3. Politiques environnementales

  41. Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 • Normes de consommation de carburant des véhicules • Biocarburant • Efficacité énergétique • Équipements électriques & ampoules • Bâtiment Pierre-Olivier Pineau

  42. Waxman-Markey Bill (American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009) • Système de plafonnement et d’échange de droits d’émissions (similaire au EU ETS) • Approuvée par la Chambre des représentants (26 juin 2009, 219-212) maisrejetéeau Sénat • Réduction de 17% des GES en 2020, par rapport à 2005 (et -42% en 2030) … engagement faits à Copenhague en 2009 au sommet sur le climat Pierre-Olivier Pineau

  43. Le plan d’action de Obama sur les changements climatiques (juin 2013) • Réductions des émissions des centrales aux charbon (EPA – états) • Accéler le développement des «énergies propres» • Normes de consommation de carburant des véhicules + biocarburants • Efficacité énergétique Pierre-Olivier Pineau

  44. Pierre-Olivier Pineau

  45. Références • CAPP (2013) Crude Oil - Forecast, Markets & Transportation, Calgary: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. Pierre-Olivier Pineau

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