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Incorporation of TAMDAR into Real-time Local Modeling

This article discusses the integration of TAMDAR data into a real-time local modeling system, including the setup of the modeling system, distribution of model output, subjective impressions of model output, data deprivation experiments, upcoming presentations, and future work.

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Incorporation of TAMDAR into Real-time Local Modeling

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  1. Incorporation of TAMDAR into Real-time Local Modeling Tom Hultquist Science & Operations Officer NOAA/National Weather Service Marquette, MI

  2. In a nutshell… • Modeling system setup • Distribution of model output • Subjective impressions of model output • Data deprivation experiments • Upcoming presentations • Future work

  3. Modeling System • FSL’s Local Analysis & Prediction System (LAPS), version 0-24-3 used for data assimilation • Input data from MADIS & AWIPS netCDF files (METAR, RAOB, ACARS, Satellite, Maritime, Profiler, Mesonet, etc…) • LAPS is cycled hourly with WRF-ARW (v 2.0.3.1), with 1-hour WRF-ARW forecast used as first guess in LAPS analysis (and subsequent LAPS analysis used to initialize WRF-ARW) • Boundary conditions obtained from NAM (32 km files) • 2 runs per day (03 UTC & 15 UTC) to 30 hours (hourly cycling restarted every 12 hours, using operational RUC for initial first guess)

  4. Modeling System • Runs performed on dual processor Intel Xeon (3.3 GHz) workstation with 2 Gb RAM • Output from 30-hour simulations is available around 19 UTC (for 15 UTC run) and 07 UTC (for 03 UTC run) • Output from intermediate (cycled) runs and analyses is not currently made available

  5. Modeling System • 15 km grid spacing • 31 vertical layers • 50 mb model top • KF convective scheme • Lin et al. microphysics • RRTM longwave • Goddard shortwave • Noah land surface model • YSU PBL

  6. Model Output • Output from the simulations is currently available at: • http://wseta.mqt.noaa.gov/SOO/wrf_html/wrf.php • http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mqt/data/wrf_html/wrf.php • Output is in the form of RIP4 generated PNG images • Output is hourly, with looping possible through javascript • A variety of basic fields can be displayed as well as a few aviation specific fields and Skew-T diagrams for select locations

  7. Impressions • Unable to perform any meaning objective verification • Model output used somewhat frequently by local staff, but have received only minimal feedback from other offices (general consensus from SOOs is that forecasters are already overwhelmed with model output) • Has been most useful in forecasting lack of convection (when operational models indicated convection) • Has also been useful in wind forecasts around Great Lakes • LAPS balance routine often seems to remove detail/information which could prove useful

  8. Data Deprivation • Sought input from CR SOOs to help identify cases which could prove useful for data deprivation experiments • Unfortunately, have received no recommendations, so only a few (locally identified) cases have be archived thus far • Data from three cases has been archived, and these cases will be re-run identically, with the exception of TAMDAR data (which will be removed from one of the runs) • February 27-28, 2005 – Significant winter storm and lake effect • June 24, 2005 – Non-event where real-time runs appeared to successfully capture overwhelming convective inhibition • August 9, 2005 – Widespread severe weather (bow echo) event in upper Michigan • Currently working on first case (preliminary results encouraging with regard to low track and placement of frontogenetically driven heavy snow band) ; Plan to complete these re-runs by early September • Still interested in hearing about additional cases; A 14-day running archive is kept of all data, so cases can be “saved” within 2 weeks of their occurrence

  9. Sharing of Information • Will present a summary of this TAMDAR modeling effort at the 14th Annual U.S./Canada Great Lakes Operational Meteorology Workshop • Some information (particularly case examples) to be presented at the four NWS forecast offices in Michigan during this fall’s “traveling SOO show” in October

  10. Future Work • Try to get some additional cases identified • Possibly shrink domain and increase resolution of experiment prior to winter to better test performance during lake effect snow events • Update to latest versions of WRF-ARW and LAPS (should be able to get this done soon) • Cease local workstation Eta runs and replace with WRF-ARW (could allow for simultaneous runs with/without TAMDAR to provide real-time comparison)

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