Climate Change, land degradation and migration in Mali and Senegal and their policy impacts

1. Climate Change, land degradation and migration in Mali and Senegal and their policy impacts Diana Hummel & Victoria van der Land “The Hamburg Conference: Actions for Climate Induced Migration” Hamburg, 16–18 July 2013

2. Project „migration, climate change & environment in the Sahel“ (micle) • Cooperation partners • ISOE – Institute for social-ecological research (Project coordination) • Geographical Institute, University of Bayreuth • Partners in Mali und Senegal • Point Sud - Center for Research on Local Knowledge, Bamako, Mali • LARTES - Laboratoire de Recherche sur les Transformations Economiques et Sociales, Université de Dakar, Senegal Duration: September 2010 - April 2014

3. Overall Objective & Research Question • Analysis of interactions between climate change, land degradation and migration in Sahelian regions Senegal and Mali • motives for migration and patterns thereof • local population‘s perception and evaluation of climate and environmental changes • role of climate and environmental changes in migration decisions • What are the specific social-ecological conditions under which migration takes place and how are these conditions impacted by climate and environmental changes?

4. Project Design: Inter- & transdisciplinary Approach • Methodology that integrates natural-scientific and social-scientific insights, as well as scientific & non-scientific knowledge • In-depth study at local and regional level • Identification of policy options (orientation knowledge)

5. General Hypotheses • Specificsocial-ecologicalconditionsconstitutethecontextformigrationdecisions • Migration resultsfrominterplayingfactors on different scales • Migration ispath-dependent, multi-causal, multi-directional and selective • Temporal & circularmigrationas an established and successfulstrategytocopewithclimatevariablity and as integral partofsocietalaction • Environmental conditionscanimpactmobility, environmental changescanbeonefactorforchanges in mobilitystructures

6. Methods - Social-empirical analysis • Survey: 900 interviews with individuals in Bandiagara and Linguére and in Bamako and Dakar • Ca. 120 qualitative Interviews • Expert interviews • Focus groups • Participatory observation • Joint fieldwork of natural & social scientists

7. Physio-Geographical Analysis Temporal-spatialpatternsofclimatevariability (temperature, precipitation) & vegetationchanges Methods • Comparison & evaluationofexistingclimatedata and localisation • Long-term time series and high resolution time series • Validation ofchangeswithhigherresolutionsystems (Landsat, Rapideye) • On-site field work: Groundtruthing, interviewswithlocalinhabitants

8. Study Regions Linguère & Bandiagara • High population mobility, migration deficit • Increasing rainfall variability and land degradation

9. Focus on Land Degradation Reduction of biological productivity of dryland ecosystems & degradation of ecosystem services as result of natural processes & human activities • Study areas characterized by • decreasing soil productivity and reduced biodiversity • decrease of agricultural production • food insecurity • increased livestock numbers • deforestation, shortage of fuelwood • phenomena of „greening“

10. Local Representations of Climate & Environment: Rainfall • Amounts of rainfall today lower than in the 1960s, rising precipiation in past 20 years • Upward trends for the last 5 years & very abundant rainfalls in 2009/2010: very good harvests (ML; SN), but also flooding & crop failure (ML) • Not only quantity, but distribution & timing of rainfall important: uncertain start & end of rainy season, heavy rainfalls increasing, persisting moisture on fields • Other factors for good harvests: access to seeds, fertilizer, availability of land, labor force

11. Migration Patterns – Spatial Dimension Migration is predominantly internal or regional • Internal migration prevails - to cities capitals - Mali: also to rural destinations in the South • Few international/regional migration to • Europe, USA & Gulf States more common inLinguère, rare in Bandiagara • Abidjan/Cote d‘Ivoire mostimportant destination for migrants from Bandiagara

12. Survey: (Non-)Governmental Supports and Migration Experience

13. Suvey: Attitudes towards migration policies Governmental Action More than 50% are in favor of encouragement of migration, but almost half of respondents are for restrictive policies

14. Survey: Attitudes towards migration Great majority of respondents would advise family members to migrate

15. First results from survey • Most findings confirm existing studies • Migration characterized by • multitude of migration destinations and objectives/motives • „new obscurity“ of migration: rural-urban & seasonal migration prevails, but increasingly during the rainy season • internal & international migration patterns are intertwined and affected by translocal provisioning strategies • social networks are important for migration decisions & motives • significant increase of female migration (sometimes sanctioned) • Role of education leval & education as motive for migration • Climate variability • irregularity of rainfall considered as serious problem • bad harvests and food shortages are motives for migration

16. Policy impacts • Dealing with fragmented governance-systems in diverse policy-arenas • Multi-level governance necessary with focus on citizen‘s needs • Inreasing capabilities of the youth • Education (not only education level, but quality) • Labor in agriculture, industry, services • Environment & nature protection • Inclusive urban and regional development planning • Important instruments at national level • Development: Poverty reduction strategy papers (PRSP) • Climate & environment: National Action plans (NAPA) Implementation and ownership

17. References • Adamo, S.B. (2008): Addressing environmentally induced population displacements: A delicate task. Background Paper for the Population-Environment Research Network Cyberseminar “Environmentally Induced Population Displacements”, 18–29 August 2008 www.populationenvironmentresearch.org (2-21-2012) • Bilsborrow, R.E./ Henry, S.J.F. (2012): The use of survey data to study migration-environment relationships in developing countries: alternative approaches to data collection. Population and Environment 34, 113-141 • Black, R./D. Kniveton/R. Skeldon/D. Coppard/A. Murata/K. Schmidt-Verkerk (2008): Demographics and Climate Change: Future Trends and their Policy Implicationf for Migration. Development Research Centre on Migration, Globalisation and Poverty. Brighton: University of Sussex • Doevenspeck, M. (2011): The Thin Line Between Choice and Flight: Environment and Migration in Rural Benin. International Migration, 49(S1): 50–68 • Findley, S.E. (1994): Does drought increase migration? A study of migration from rural Mali during the 1983–1985 drought. International Migration Review, 28(3): 539–553 • Foresight: Migration and Environmental Change (2011): Final Report. London: The Government Office for Science • Hummel, D. (Ed.) (2008): Population dynamics and supply systems. A transdisciplinary approach. Frankfurt/New York • Hummel, D.; Doevenspeck, M.; Samimi, C. (2012): Climate change, environment and migration in the Sahel. Selected issues with a focus on Senegal and Mali • Hummel, D.; van der Land, V. (in print): Vulnerability and the Role of Education in Environmentally Induced Migration in Mali and Senegal“. Ecolgy and Society • Piguet, E.; Pécoud, A.; de Guchteneire, P. (2011): Migration and Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press • Warner, K. (2011): Environmental change and migration: methodological considerations from ground-breaking global survey. Population and Environment 33: 3–27

18. Thank you much for your attention!