An approach to modeling group behaviors and beliefs in conflict situations

1. An approach to modeling group behaviors and beliefs in conflict situations Norman D. Geddes Michele Atkinson Applied Systems Intelligence, Inc. www.asinc.com SBP08 April 1-2, 2008 Phoenix, AZ

2. The DIME Doctrine • Integrated consideration of all activities in the Theater • Diplomatic, Informational, Military and Economic • Planning of tactical operations • Reduce counter-productive activities • Requirement for an Effects Model to support DIME during planning • Usable by soldiers at the Brigade staff level • Adaptable to other theaters

3. Nation-States • A State operates within a political, military, economic, social and informational infrastructure (“PMESII”) • The conditions of the PMESII both constrain and motivate the behaviors of groups within the State • There are many types of groups within a State • Government branches and agencies • Non-governmental organizations • Voluntary citizen groups, such as Political groups, Religious groups, Criminal groups, Commercial groups and Tribal or ethnic groups • The alignment of the groups is critical to the formation of a stable Nation-State

4. Group model of intentions and beliefs • Groups of interest • Specifically focused on groups that are influenced by or perform DIME activities • Groups of interest are purposeful • Groups are sustained by goals and methods held in common by the members • Goals and methods are constrained by the PMESII • Groups of interest have common beliefs • Groups may differ widely in their belief structures • Groups have beliefs about the PMESII and about other groups

5. Provide Modern Infrastructure Education Information and Communications Healthcare Food Supply Transportation Housing Energy Roadways Rail Airways Roadways Operated Roadway Built Government Project Business Project Humanitarian Project Representing intentions • Each group has its own planning and acting structure • Represented by a Plan Goal Graph (PGG) • A knowledge base describing how the group will choose goals and make plans for achieving them • A PGG Instance Graph the represents the current state of the groups planning and execution of activities towards its goals

6. National Transportation Status National Roadway Status National Airways Status National Rail Status National Waterways Status Regional Airway Status Regional Rail Status Regional Roadway Status Local Road Segment Status Airport Status Local Rail Segment Status Rail Yard Status Roadway Segment Report Airport Report ATC Equipment Report Rail Segment Report Rail Yard Report Representing beliefs • Each group has its own belief structure • Represented by a Concept Graph • A knowledge base that provides the recipes for composing beliefs from observations • A Concept Instance Graph that represents what the group believes at the moment

7. Example scenario • From the book “Three Cups of Tea” • Four group roles • Three tribal villages, One humanitarian • There is both direct and indirect conflict of intentions • Villages are competing for the project • Only material for one project

8. Humanitarian Plan Goal Graph Humanitarian Group Have Members Assist Others Have Money Appealing Public Message Support Needs Donations Determine Needs Reduce Needs Perform Projects Provide Temporary Relief Visible Information Events Project Completed Perform Building Project Have Materials Have Site Structure Completed

9. Humanitarian Concept Graph National Transportation Status National Education Status National Organization Status National Roadway Status Regional Educational Status Regional Group Status Nearest School Regional Roadway Status Village Local Road Segment Status Group Location School Local Group Person Location Group Conflict Project Debt to Person Roadway Segment Report Member Debt to Group Materials Allocation Conflict Report Project Status Report Person Location Report Associate Materials Stockpile Person Member Report Materials Allocation Report Debt Event

10. Tribal Plan Goal Graph Tribal Group Have Members Improve Tribal Needs Have Money Families Purchase Assistance Agriculture Barter for Assistance Commerce Create Debt Debt Repaid Honor as Guest Perform Favor

11. Model Operation • Groups interact with the PMESII via Actions and Reports • Typical time tick is one day • The groups update their beliefs and their intentions each time tick User Interface Persistent Storage Initialization Prior Model Runs PMESII state data Message dispatching Group models

12. Summary • Fine grain matching with historical events is promising • Underlying tools for knowledge construction and group behavior generation appear adequate • The next experiments will focus on scaling up to 100 and then 1000 groups • We anticipate that 1000 groups will meet most tactical needs