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Turbulence

Turbulence. Challenges and Potential Solutions. Turbulence Basics. Drivers – Safety, Efficiency/Emissions, Capacity, & Customer Experience Primary users- Meteorologists, Dispatchers, Crews, & Controllers Solution Components Forecast Tactical/Now cast Reporting

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Turbulence

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  1. Turbulence Challenges and Potential Solutions

  2. Turbulence Basics • Drivers – Safety, Efficiency/Emissions, Capacity, & Customer Experience • Primary users- Meteorologists, Dispatchers, Crews, & Controllers • Solution Components • Forecast • Tactical/Now cast • Reporting • Challenges – FAA, Industry, & Resources

  3. Flight Attendant Issuesfrom an Industry Meeting • Insufficient/ incomplete briefing from the flight crew on weather en route e.g. turbulence • Inability to communicate effectively with flight deck about turbulence in the cabin • Obligation to continue with service or compliance duties when the seatbelt sign is illuminated • 300 lb. beverage cart that is a potential hazard • Passengers disregard instructions and move about the cabin

  4. Variables & Resources • Forecast • Model Selection • Subjectivity / Risk Considerations • Dispatcher / Pilots • Tool selection • Subjectivity / Risk Considerations • Workload drivers • Pilots’ Chat Room

  5. History • Wright Brothers PIREPS • Chat Room • Gore Commission (1998) – Safety • NASA • FAA/NCAR • Too Much Conservatism is ultimately ignored – Cry Wolf • Dispatch trial – Product vs. Workload

  6. What we are doing? Replacing the Wright Brothers’ PIREPS Using an objective sensor based turbulence metric called EDR (Eddy Dissipation Rate) – Atmospheric State Using the numeric metric in a sophisticated forecast model (GTG) running on a super computer Providing access to a web site with the reports superimposed on the forecast

  7. Why are we doing it? • Safety • IF EVERYONE IS STRAPPED IN WITH CARTS STOWED, NO ONE GETS HURT. • KEY IS NOT TO CRY WOLF & F/A IGNORE WARNINGS • Efficiency/Emissions • Capacity = Delays • Better customer experience • Overall - The solutions for all 4 drivers might appear to conflict, but BETTER WEATHER KNOWLEDGE CAN DRIVE BETTER SOLUTIONS FOR ALL 4.

  8. Components of Viewer • 3 Dimensional Forecast Model • Robust – Weighted average of other models • Updated hourly • Feedback loop • Objective aircraft reports - Validate model • Sensor based reports • Normalized for all aircraft – Sea state • Live web site using WiFi with user tools

  9. FAA Delta Demo • Tablet using WiFi for Turbulence Viewer • 40+ Line Check Airmen • One year duration • Goals • Change behavior with better information • Measure benefits • Define next steps

  10. Turbulence Viewer

  11. Profile View

  12. Report Generator

  13. Preliminary Results • Very Positive - Want it now • What have you done for me today? • Auto generated flight Path • 3D Visualization • Future Steps • Cabin vs. cockpit access to weather • Turbulence building block • Weather integration/simplification

  14. Future Path • Industry Distractions • Airline daily priority – Mergers, Fuel, Economy • FAA – Research vs. Implementation • Political Will • FAA – NextGenWeather • Airlines – Validate Benefits • Alternatives for Data Location & Products • Airline, Government, Commercial or Mix • Costs burden • More data is key, but airline differences inhibit • Decision Time – Demo could be the trigger

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