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The Demographic Risks of Civil Conflict Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

This study examines the relationship between demographic transition and the likelihood of civil conflict in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s. It explores various demographic risk factors, including high proportions of young adults, rapid urban population growth, diminishing resources, AIDS-related changes, ethnic population differentials, and migration. The study also analyzes the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and recommends promoting the demographic transition, improving access to reproductive health services, empowering women, and incorporating demography into conflict analysis.

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The Demographic Risks of Civil Conflict Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

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  1. The Demographic Risks of Civil Conflict Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Washington, DC June 13, 2006 Richard Cincotta cincotta@popact.org

  2. The Annual Number of Civil and Interstate Conflicts, 1946-2001

  3. Relationship Between Demographic Transition and the Likelihood of Civil Conflict, 1970s, ’80s and ’90s >>> Demographic Transition >>> Likelihood of an Outbreak of civil conflict 1970s 1980s 1990s Birth Rate (per thousand)

  4. Demographic Risk Factors: Assessing the Strength of Evidence • Cross-national and time-series studies • Case studies and observational evidence (the press, anecdotal reports). • Consistency with behavioral theories.

  5. Civil conflict-related demographic factors • High proportions of young adults. • Rapid urban population growth. • Diminishing supplies of cropland & fresh water. • AIDS-related demographic changes. • Differential growth among ethnic populations. • Migration (within country, cross-border).

  6. Conflict-related demographic factors(continued) • Heavily male-dominated marriage-age subpopulation. • Large proportion of the population above 65 years of age.

  7. Civil conflict-related demographic factors • High proportions of young adults. • Rapid urban population growth. • Diminishing supplies of cropland & fresh water. • AIDS-related demographic changes. • Differential growth among ethnic populations. • Migration (within country, cross-border).

  8. West Bank and Gaza 2005 Young men, ages 15-29 yrs

  9. Data: UN Pop. Div., 2005

  10. An early-transition age structure

  11. A mid-transition age structure

  12. Proportion of Young Adults (15-29 years), 2005 Data: UN Population Division, 2005

  13. Civil conflict-related demographic factors • High proportions of young adults. • Rapid urban population growth. • Diminishing supplies of cropland & fresh water. • AIDS-related demographic changes.

  14. Data: UN Population Division, 2005

  15. Conflict-related demographic factors(continued) • Heavily male-dominated marriage-age subpopulation. • Large proportion of the population above 65 years of age.

  16. Israeli-Palestinian conflict • High proportions of young adults in ethnic subpopulations. • Rapid urban population growth. • Diminishing supplies of cropland & fresh water. • Differential growth among ethnic populations.

  17. Fertility within Israel’s current frontiers, 2000-2005 Data: UN Pop. Div., 2005; Berman & Stepanyan, 2004; Israeli Central Bur. Stat., 2003

  18. Recommendations • Promote the demographic transition. • Help make access to reproductive health services easier for refugees, civilians in post-conflict situations, and all military personnel. • Support improvements in the legal, educational and economic status of women. • Make demography part of the analysis.

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